Wolfgang622 wrote:

jerseyhoya wrote:I put a small amount of money last night on him not to be confirmed at +325. Yes is now -170, No is +140 so that's moving in the right direction.

Also bet $50 on the Dems taking the House at -220. That's implied odds of under 70% which seems wild.

I wish I knew what gambling terms meant.

A minus in front of it means that's how much you'd have to bet to win $100 and a plus in front of it means that's how much you'd win if you bet $100.

I think turtle is pressing a vote right now.

thephan wrote:I think turtle is pressing a vote right now.

I mean, don't we think that'd lead to Kavanaugh being voted down?

So it seems that this starts the process. The final vote will happen after the fbi returns the results.

jerseyhoya wrote:

Wolfgang622 wrote:

jerseyhoya wrote:I put a small amount of money last night on him not to be confirmed at +325. Yes is now -170, No is +140 so that's moving in the right direction.

Also bet $50 on the Dems taking the House at -220. That's implied odds of under 70% which seems wild.

I wish I knew what gambling terms meant.

A minus in front of it means that's how much you'd have to bet to win $100 and a plus in front of it means that's how much you'd win if you bet $100.

Ah.

Well, if I am being purely cynical - which I am absolutely not, better every Democrat lose if it would guarantee keeping sex offenders off the highest court - but if I were, i would say the House is probably going to move in the wrong direction for you unless/until Kavanaugh is confirmed. The longer it goes, on, the less likely he is to be confirmed; if he is not confirmed before the midterms, the more likely it is Republican turnout will be strong.

Someone on a previous post pointed out that, again, from a purely cynical perspective here, I am not sure what the rush for Republicans is; they kill the momentum of whatever outrage they can muster if this ends before the midterms. I think TV posted some kind of schedule in reply that I suppose I should look at for my answer.

Interesting. Kavanaugh claims he never knowingly hung out with Ford or knew who she was. Apparently, he hung out with "the guy Ford went out with" the entire Summer of 82. He is the "Squi" we see on his calendar in that July 1 get together for beers at Timmy's.

Perhaps ol Squi can answer a few questions

Given devils triangle and fffffffffforth of July

pacino wrote:Perhaps ol Squi can answer a few questions

@jbenton twitter thread (how Squi was hanging out often with Kavanagh while basically "dating" Ford at the same time) an example of how maybe journalists or even just diligent citizens can give the 'ol FBI some material to work with...might be hard to go, " :shrug: we didn't find anything new" when so much evidence is sitting right there in plain view.

Rockinghorse wrote:

pacino wrote:Perhaps ol Squi can answer a few questions

@jbenton twitter thread (how Squi was hanging out often with Kavanagh while basically "dating" Ford at the same time) an example of how maybe journalists or even just diligent citizens can give the 'ol FBI some material to work with...might be hard to go, " :shrug: we didn't find anything new" when so much evidence is sitting right there in plain view.

And Ford claimed yesterday that she probably went to 4 or 5 get-togethers/parties in 1982 that Kavanaugh also went too. It would stand to reason that she was there with Squi.

Kavanaugh, to me, just seemed too eager yesterday to make sure we knew that he never ever ever ever met Ford in 1982 or knew her.

in the words of jfly, "he doth protest too much". My friend (former daily news court reporter) put it this way:

I've covered a TON of testimony. Liars "wrongly accused" tap real events to work up outrage and pain: how the accusations have impacted their loved ones, how their accomplishments and goodness have been ignored by their accusers. They think they can exhibit real--appropriate--emotion over these things, and that the tears and anger can provide cover for their crimes. Notice that Kavanaugh didn't scream, "I didn't do this to her! OMG! I never would." He screamed about a Dem coverup and his ability to get into Yale. He cried about his daughter.

I have not gotten around to ask.

What is a Moz wave?

Gonna slip this in.

I’ve been a dick towards jersey for a year saying this was his fault. He’s too smart, civil and rational to ever want what the last 48 hours have been.

For that, I do apologize.

Fuck the Giants though.

JFLNYC wrote:Bravo to Jeff Flake for having the decency and integrity to make that decision. By doing the right thing I think, among other positive things, he may actually be saving the Pubs from themselves.

Jeff Snowflake is obviously a democratic operative #KavanaughSCOTUS #WomenAreConfused #BoysWillBeBoys #HimToo

Wolfgang622 wrote:
, I am not sure what the rush for Republicans is; they kill the momentum of whatever outrage they can muster if this ends before the midterms. .

This is only true if they think time will not reveal their nominee to be an even bigger piece of shit than we now realize. Maybe there are more credible accusations on their way and they know it.

They are afraid of an FBI investigation. Either they think there's something else that might be uncovered or they don't want to have to say the FBI is reliable at the same time they're saying the FBI is unreliable in the Russia investigation. Whatever it is, they really don't seem to want the FBI involved. My guess is there are threads to pull that would make Kavanugh look really bad.

Even money Kavanaugh withdraws before end of next week.

The Savior wrote:Gonna slip this in.

I’ve been a dick towards jersey for a year saying this was his fault. He’s too smart, civil and rational to ever want what the last 48 hours have been.

For that, I do apologize.

Fuck the Giants though.

Someone's been hacked.

Monkeyboy wrote:

Wolfgang622 wrote:
, I am not sure what the rush for Republicans is; they kill the momentum of whatever outrage they can muster if this ends before the midterms. .

This is only true if they think time will not reveal their nominee to be an even bigger piece of shit than we now realize. Maybe there are more credible accusations on their way and they know it.

They are afraid of an FBI investigation. Either they think there's something else that might be uncovered or they don't want to have to say the FBI is reliable at the same time they're saying the FBI is unreliable in the Russia investigation. Whatever it is, they really don't seem to want the FBI involved. My guess is there are threads to pull that would make Kavanugh look really bad.

I think you nailed it here