just saying, this is a PHILLIES message board

Well they're still a year or two away from playoff relevance. 2017-2018 Eagles champs. 2018-2019 Flyers champs, 2019-2020 Sixers champs, 2020 Phillies Champs. CITY OF CHAMPIONS.

fine, I'll allow it

guys the odds are incredibly likely that someone you know will share a birthday with you if you know more than 30 people

Also, Spurs are the best team in London and I actually feel good about them getting a result against Real Madrid tomorrow

Look at the big brain on Soren.

But really, how often do you look at a man's birthday?

Soren wrote:guys the odds are incredibly likely that someone you know will share a birthday with you if you know more than 30 people

False.

Edit: You just described a probability using a binomial distribution of 8%, not 50%. http://stattrek.com/online-calculator/binomial.aspx
Parameters. Probability of 1 success is 0.00273785 (1 out of 365.25), number of trials is 30, and number of successes >=1.

If there are 23 people in a room, there's a 50% chance that 2 people share a birthday. That's a different question. https://betterexplained.com/articles/un ... y-paradox/

Werthless wrote:

Soren wrote:guys the odds are incredibly likely that someone you know will share a birthday with you if you know more than 30 people

False.

room of 23 people odds are 50 percent. something like near 100 percent over 70 people

CalvinBall wrote:

Werthless wrote:

Soren wrote:guys the odds are incredibly likely that someone you know will share a birthday with you if you know more than 30 people

False.

room of 23 people odds are 50 percent. something like near 100 percent over 70 people

See my edit. Odds are not 50/50 that "one of the 23 people in the room share your birthday."

You'd need to know 253 people before you were likely to have one of them share a birthday with you.

Werthless has it covered but a sort of easy way to think about it is to think about all possible combinations. You have 29 chances to share a birthday with the 29 other people in the room. Say you don't, then the 29th person has 28 chances, the 28th person has 27 chances, etc (because you've already exhausted some of those chances) all the way down to the last two people sharing one chance. Odds get pretty good that at least one of those chances will be a match even though the odds of you specifically sharing a bday with someone are low.

Obviously my friend is correct here.

Also as someone growing up who was always the youngest in my grade (cc Werthless) I was not likely to have anyone share my birth year even if we had the same birthday! It was a very exciting discovery!

LOL

Made me think of this, for some reason:

It's not like anyone is surprised that Woody Allen is a big jerk, but I still like his movies. (Well, the funny ones at least.) However, it would be best for everyone if he were to just shut up about witch hunts and Harvey Weinstein.

The dog walking out of the burned home seems staged. Guy just happened to be filming? Why didn't they bring the dog with them?

CalvinBall wrote:The dog walking out of the burned home seems staged. Guy just happened to be filming? Why didn't they bring the dog with them?

Owners said they couldn’t find the dog and flames quickly engulfed the place. Their son and son-in-law hiked a couple miles back to the house to take a video to show the parents what was left.

A man with a bizarre forehead tattoo is charged with a 2015 sex crime.
Christopher Wilson, 37, is charged with sexual imposition and assault.
He was arrested on Saturday night, according to the jail website.
Wilson has a tattoo reading "I'm a pornstar," along with another vulgar message, on his forehead. FOX19 blurred part of the tattoo in the photo posted with this story. 
He's charged in a May 2015 incident that occurred on Wheeler Street.

It probably shouldn't have taken them 2 years to find this guy.

I think what's getting lost (and I think JH tried to bring us back, buy I'm not really sure) is that we were discussing the same birth DATE (mm/dd/yyyy) as opposed to birth DAY (mm/dd)