are you okay?

he kept falling off the mound to the first base side a lot too. like he was just out of sync. i can never remember that happening when he was locked in the last few years. i still think something is wrong.

FTN wrote:he kept falling off the mound to the first base side a lot too.

maybe they gave him vicente's old locker

heh

looking for silver linings...

looking at the fangraphs pitchf/x charts, halladay´s release point moved up an inch or two in game 2, cutting in half the difference between game 1 and his 2010-2011 level. similar story with fastball velocities... ft and fc speeds each about a half mph faster in game 2. one week behind due to flu, another because he didn´t push himself quite as hard in the offseason to try to avoid running out of gas in september october... still reasonable to expect some further improvement.

game 1 pretty crappy all-round. zone % lower than any full-season number in his career underlying the horrible bb/k/pa ratios. and explaining why swing% way down relative to career or even 2012. but weird things were happening when the braves did swing, and it got weirder against the mets. all of the armslot/velocity/movement analysis above might explain the .357 babip in game 1. but not the .800 babip in game 2. and his game 1 swing and miss rate was 14.75, way way above his career norm. game 2 was a little below career norm, but right at the rate he had in his pretty darn good 2008 season.

speaking of game 2, his zone% was back around career norms and better than his good philly years in that game. and the other funky thing about that game was that the fouls/pitch fouls/swing and fouls/contact rate were all off-the-charts high relative to his career. since the zone rates and swing and miss and contact rates were all pretty much in line with his career, that looks an awful lot like bad luck. combine the foul and babip anomalies, and game 2 might well have been the single unluckiest of his career.

or maybe he was just serving meatballs that were being driven deep and foul or missed by overly excited hitters (i don´t watch the games due to time difference and i wasn´t brave enough to read through what must have been horribly depressing game threads).

so aside from not having his perfect location quite yet, youre saying he's mostly been very unlucky to this point? works for me

bury me wrote:so aside from not having his perfect location quite yet, youre saying he's mostly been very unlucky to this point? works for me

no, i´m saying a big part of the problem in his second start was bad luck, and that the poor pitching part of the problem is consistent with his being several weeks behind where he usually is conditioning-wise at this point of the season.

details of the luck thing:
if i didn´t screw up the spreadsheet in which i backwards-engineered various b-r stats to get the foul ball rates that i couldn´t find anywhere, in game two halladay would normally have had 5 more balls in play, and 17 foul balls instead of 22. with a normal babip of .300, he would have gotten 7 outs from 10 balls in play instead of just 1 from 5 balls in play. 6 extra outs, that 2 more innings and several fewer runs!

that's really excellent stuff, thanks

velocity and release point move another step in the direction of normal roy according to today's fangraphs pitchf/x update.

phorever wrote:velocity and release point move another step in the direction of normal roy according to today's fangraphs pitchf/x update.

Where does one find release point data on fangraphs? Thanks for the help.

I was assured the sky was falling

I'm not convinced he's fixed. He still left a lot of pitches out over the plate it looked to me. Hope I'm wrong. I'm certainly no expert.

I agree. I'm hoping for an above average pitcher. I'm not seeing that right now. Again, I could be wrong. I was wrong once before in the late 80s. Lol. Omg.

Threw 50 sinkers last night, the most since 2009

http://www.philly.com/philly/blogs/phil ... laday.html

Grotewold wrote:Threw 50 sinkers last night, the most since 2009

http://www.philly.com/philly/blogs/phil ... laday.html

Hanging with Kendricks too much now

Dickhead pitching coach on Doc's last two starts:

“I’m not going to talk about it. Everybody bashed Roy Halladay long enough. Now he has a couple of good ones and all of a sudden he’s a Cy Young candidate. You guys ride that roller coaster and we’ll stay where we’re at. Let Roy be Roy.”

I think he was trashing everybody but Doc there

WE ARE NEVER EVER EVER GONNA WIN WITH DUBEE

Love how everyone ignores the good work dubee has done.