Roy Halladay

by **GodOfWar** » Fri Dec 18, 2009 01:04:29

During the PC someone asked RAJ if he talked to other teams about Cliff. He deferred answering till later. Did he address that in any interview after the PC?

by **jeff2sf** » Fri Dec 18, 2009 01:04:37

bfc wrote:
jeff2sf wrote:
And another thing, why do teams who don't need catchers keep asking for our catchers... take Cleveland for instance. It's like the teams went out of their way to destroy value with Marson.

They DFA'd Shoppach and traded Martinez. Marson is likely their low cost + replacement level dood for the next 3-4 years. Seems valuable.

Well this gets me for not posting this thought two months ago when shoppach being dfa'd wasn't likely, but more importantly, Marson's not going to be there for 3 years given Santana nipping at his heels. So at the time, I thought he wasn't going to get any PT in 2010 and by 2011 Santana would be ready.

by **jerseyhoya** » Fri Dec 18, 2009 01:06:23

GodOfWar wrote:During the PC someone asked RAJ if he talked to other teams about Cliff. He deferred answering till later. Did he address that in any interview after the PC?

Don't start calling him RAJ. Please. If you want to be in the running for best 10th post ever.

by **GodOfWar** » Fri Dec 18, 2009 01:16:04

jerseyhoya wrote:
GodOfWar wrote:During the PC someone asked RAJ if he talked to other teams about Cliff. He deferred answering till later. Did he address that in any interview after the PC?

Don't start calling him RAJ. Please. If you want to be in the running for best 10th post ever.

Sorry. I'm disabled and have to e-mail myself via txt message and then copy and paste e-mail here. So I'm limited to 160 characters per txt so initials save me some characters. Not explanation you probably expected.

Trying to find a wireless handheld keyboard.

by **The Savior** » Fri Dec 18, 2009 01:20:18

GodOfWar wrote:
jerseyhoya wrote:
GodOfWar wrote:During the PC someone asked RAJ if he talked to other teams about Cliff. He deferred answering till later. Did he address that in any interview after the PC?

Don't start calling him RAJ. Please. If you want to be in the running for best 10th post ever.

Sorry. I'm disabled and have to e-mail myself via txt message and then copy and paste e-mail here. So I'm limited to 160 characters per txt so initials save me some characters. Not explanation you probably expected. Trying to find a wireless handheld keyboard.

Well, didn't see that explanation coming

by **GodOfWar** » Fri Dec 18, 2009 01:24:33

It's worth it though. I'm a veteran lurker. Just don't expect in depth analysis. That's the excuse I'm using.

by **jerseyhoya** » Fri Dec 18, 2009 01:25:16

The Savior wrote:
GodOfWar wrote:
jerseyhoya wrote:
GodOfWar wrote:During the PC someone asked RAJ if he talked to other teams about Cliff. He deferred answering till later. Did he address that in any interview after the PC?

Don't start calling him RAJ. Please. If you want to be in the running for best 10th post ever.

Sorry. I'm disabled and have to e-mail myself via txt message and then copy and paste e-mail here. So I'm limited to 160 characters per txt so initials save me some characters. Not explanation you probably expected. Trying to find a wireless handheld keyboard.

Well, didn't see that explanation coming

by **lethal** » Fri Dec 18, 2009 01:38:10

Halladay was just on BBTN and Lee will be on next.

by **Eem** » Fri Dec 18, 2009 01:42:50

Friends, we have Roy Halladay.

by **Doll Is Mine** » Fri Dec 18, 2009 01:49:51

lethal wrote:Halladay was just on BBTN and Lee will be on next.

What a difference in the two mens' tones, huh?

by **SideshowBob** » Fri Dec 18, 2009 01:54:18

jeff2sf wrote:The Phils did fine because Halladay gave such a good deal to them, so there was a lot of extra value to split with Toronto, I'm just surprised they gave so much of that value to Toronto.

I think more than anything it was because of the $6M that Toronto threw the Phillies way and less about how good an extension that Halladay signed.

by **HillMD** » Fri Dec 18, 2009 03:33:51

Before and during every one of his starts until he is relieved, Halladay has a distinct trademark in which he goes into a complete "isolation mode", immersing himself in complete concentration and in more or less his own words: To try and plan every pitch he would pitch while on the mound. During this time, he doesn't talk to anyone except a manager , or his pitching coach. He will not even to reply to a "hello" or wave for that matter from a teammate or spectator, and will not talk to the media before his start, not unless he's been relieved or he completes a game.

by **Barry Jive** » Fri Dec 18, 2009 04:31:29

The worst part of this trade is that it's too late for me to ask for a Halladay jersey for Christmas, and it's too early for me to escape guilt for buying myself a Halladay jersey.

I will purchase one on December 26th.

by **phorever** » Fri Dec 18, 2009 05:35:02

MattS wrote:it could help, but keep in mind that there's risk on the major league talent end of the deal too due to draft pick compensation--

and because not all established big league pitchers have the same uncertainly associated with their performance. what kind of uncertainty do you have for lee, reletive to your uncertainty for halladay? i think i'm seeing some sizeable variance in his 2010 projections (chone's run value looks lower than yours, and that of bill james looks even worse), and there was some controversy this spring about how to project him for 2009.

and what if in the minds of mlb gm's the uncertainty about lee's mid-career improvement is even greater than that among stats analysts?

right now, widespread uncertainty around mlb about his projections is my best guess as to why two teams have found it surprisingly hard to get a good prospect package for lee.

or were the phillies and indians both stupidly impatient?

by **phillychuck** » Fri Dec 18, 2009 09:46:41

jeff2sf wrote:
bfc wrote:
jeff2sf wrote:
And another thing, why do teams who don't need catchers keep asking for our catchers... take Cleveland for instance. It's like the teams went out of their way to destroy value with Marson.

They DFA'd Shoppach and traded Martinez. Marson is likely their low cost + replacement level dood for the next 3-4 years. Seems valuable.

Well this gets me for not posting this thought two months ago when shoppach being dfa'd wasn't likely, but more importantly, Marson's not going to be there for 3 years given Santana nipping at his heels. So at the time, I thought he wasn't going to get any PT in 2010 and by 2011 Santana would be ready.

They also have Matt McBride who can hit, but I don't think it's certain he can stay at catcher with his arm injury. He was available in the rule 5, so I doubt the Indians have him in their plans.

by **Houshphandzadeh** » Fri Dec 18, 2009 10:13:13

HillMD wrote:
Before and during every one of his starts until he is relieved, Halladay has a distinct trademark in which he goes into a complete "isolation mode", immersing himself in complete concentration and in more or less his own words: To try and plan every pitch he would pitch while on the mound. During this time, he doesn't talk to anyone except a manager , or his pitching coach. He will not even to reply to a "hello" or wave for that matter from a teammate or spectator, and will not talk to the media before his start, not unless he's been relieved or he completes a game.

So he doesn't talk to teammates while he's sitting in the dugout?

by **Houshphandzadeh** » Fri Dec 18, 2009 10:14:12

GodOfWar wrote:It's worth it though. I'm a veteran lurker. Just don't expect in depth analysis. That's the excuse I'm using.

welcome above deck, GOW

by **stevemc** » Fri Dec 18, 2009 10:14:34

Houshphandzadeh wrote:
HillMD wrote:
Before and during every one of his starts until he is relieved, Halladay has a distinct trademark in which he goes into a complete "isolation mode", immersing himself in complete concentration and in more or less his own words: To try and plan every pitch he would pitch while on the mound. During this time, he doesn't talk to anyone except a manager , or his pitching coach. He will not even to reply to a "hello" or wave for that matter from a teammate or spectator, and will not talk to the media before his start, not unless he's been relieved or he completes a game.

So he doesn't talk to teammates while he's sitting in the dugout?

are you supposed to talk to guys when they have a no-hitter? Nope! I don't expect Roy will give up a hit in 2010.

by **traderdave** » Fri Dec 18, 2009 11:46:54

bfc wrote:I think the missing analytical tool in prospect evaluation here is beta, or variance. It is an input into the capital asset pricing model which is the standard way of evaluating securities. One could imagine adding a beta element to standard prospect valuation models to further refine the dollar amount (or win total) associated with their acquisition.

If prospects are converted into a dollar value using regressions of historical data, it should be relatively straight forward to figure out the beta around guys a certain distance from the big league level and of certain prospect ranking. For established guys like Halladay, their beta is likely very low as there is a substantial track record of accomplishment and health.

So, I think flop's point is right, insofar that the standard value association for prospects who have not logged significant time above A+ ball is overstated. But i imagine that there is a more sophisticated analytical way of introducing risk into the model i the form of beta. If someone with far deeper knowledge into those models knows that this is already accounted for appropriately please point it out. Some of my assumptions are based on ignorance and inference, not careful consideration of the current models being used

FTN wrote: i think there are still enough question marks about both drabek and aumont, and really everyone in the deal, to assign any kind of future value to them

I agree that this is an interesting concept but I think it is much easier to implement in theory than in practice. The first of the obstacles is what you would use as your "market". Is it logical to develop a beta for a Drabek or an Aumont by comparing them to Tim Lincecum or Roy Halladay? I think that is a pretty easy "No". Think of all the minor league players there are and how many actually make significant contributions in the bigs; a relatively small number. That would seem to indicate that the "market" cannot come from minor league comparisons either.

by **Doll Is Mine** » Fri Dec 18, 2009 12:59:19

Houshphandzadeh wrote:
HillMD wrote:
Before and during every one of his starts until he is relieved, Halladay has a distinct trademark in which he goes into a complete "isolation mode", immersing himself in complete concentration and in more or less his own words: To try and plan every pitch he would pitch while on the mound. During this time, he doesn't talk to anyone except a manager , or his pitching coach. He will not even to reply to a "hello" or wave for that matter from a teammate or spectator, and will not talk to the media before his start, not unless he's been relieved or he completes a game.

So he doesn't talk to teammates while he's sitting in the dugout?

Roy's never had Victorino for a teammate ...haha...

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Roy Halladay