Roy Halladay

by **jamiethekiller** » Thu Dec 17, 2009 19:40:28

CalvinBall wrote:we got rid of drabek and taylor and now we cant control costs? it wasnt a guarantee that they were going to be good.

it was still a cheap body to put in there. regardless of talent.

by **FTN** » Thu Dec 17, 2009 19:50:09

The "need" for Drabek and Taylor wasn't in 2010, or 2011. The need was going to be in 2012 when half the roster gets turned over. I can name 5 or 6 prospects right now that I think can be as good as Drabek and Taylor are considered now in 2012.

The current crop will be together (for the most part) for the next 2 seasons. Sure, if you'd kept Taylor, maybe you can let Werth go. Maybe Werth will go anyway. But Brown will be close to ready by the end of 2010. Drabek might be ready now, he might not be ready until July, or he might never be ready. The Phillies probably weren't planning on just throwing him in there if Moyer/Kendrick bomb out. He has a half season at AA, no time at AAA, and hes one season removed from TJ surgery. Drabek was a piece for 2011.

by **jamiethekiller** » Thu Dec 17, 2009 20:00:03

so you think this crop with 2 very good starting pitchers, 2 average starters and 1 crapshoot pitcher is enough to get to/win the world series?

we can both agree that 2011 and beyond is going to be up in the air. i don't see us winning the world series with this group in 2010, let alone 2011 or 2012. so we just traded valuable assets for roy halladay for no reason.

IMO this is our last year of chance to win a world series.

by **CalvinBall** » Thu Dec 17, 2009 20:01:30

dude. we made it to the world series this year and did not have roy halladay and rollins was historically bad. stop freaking out.

by **FTN** » Thu Dec 17, 2009 20:01:58

and we won more than 90 games despite having a professional arsonist closing our games

by **jamiethekiller** » Thu Dec 17, 2009 20:04:56

you're all probably right.

i just can't shake it out of my head the braves steam rolling every team they face. they may not hit like us, but they're going to win a ton of games 3-1.

by **jerseyhoya** » Thu Dec 17, 2009 20:05:39

jamiethekiller wrote:you're all probably right.

i just can't shake it out of my head the braves steam rolling every team they face. they may not hit like us, but they're going to win a ton of games 3-1.

If the Braves win 100 games, that's why god invented the wild card

by **GodOfWar** » Thu Dec 17, 2009 20:06:24

Plus the rotation was horrid early last season. I'm worried about clinching too early this season more than anything else.

by **phorever** » Thu Dec 17, 2009 20:07:40

jamiethekiller wrote:
who is going to come from our system? we don't have a solid prospect above A ball. We just have a lot of projection high ceiling arms. as another noted, its kendrick or bust from our system right now.

this is why this trade stinks. we just lost all ability to control our costs. we can't trade an OF at this point because we won't have a replacement. we have zero position of strength now.

i've already demonstrated twice that we have the parts to maintain the current talent level for under $150million in 2011 and beyond. please someone look it up and link it for me so i don't have to do it again.
short story: a platoon with francisco can replace victorino (or ibanez?) so you can trade him for rollins' 2012 replacement. moyer/victorino/romero money can go into resigning werth and blanton. ibanez --> brown, lidge --> matheison/aumond save enough to resign hamels, but the last key to affordable success is realizing that having the best phillies pitcher since carlton means that howard is an unnecessarily and expensive luxury. you can let him walk and use a good platoon to replace 70% of his value at 30% of the cost and still beat the league by a bigger margin than we did this year.

do you realize how much better a full season of halladay makes our rotation relative to last year, even including lee? halladay is worth 2.5 wins more than howard, for the same price. given that lee gave us 2.5 wins of value during the season, you can replace the phillies 2009 contributions from howard and lee with replacement level and come out even. a good platoon puts you ahead.

by **philliesphhan** » Thu Dec 17, 2009 20:11:09

jamiethekiller wrote:so you think this crop with 2 very good starting pitchers, 2 average starters and 1 crapshoot pitcher is enough to get to/win the world series?

we can both agree that 2011 and beyond is going to be up in the air. i don't see us winning the world series with this group in 2010, let alone 2011 or 2012. so we just traded valuable assets for roy halladay for no reason.

IMO this is our last year of chance to win a world series.

A few posts back you were worried about replacing Blanton/Moyer, now Moyer is a crapshoot. A crapshoot is pretty easy to replace. I don't know why people fret over this stuff to begin with. Look at our starting lineup in 2006:

Rollins
Nunez (seriously, he hit 2nd and played 3rd in the first game that year)
Abreu
Utley
Burrell
Howard
Rowand
Lieberthal
Lieber

So, 2/3rd of that is gone, and that's 3 years ago.

Also, we won the World Series and had worse pitching than we do now, so yeah I think we can win it with this rotation.

by **CalvinBall** » Thu Dec 17, 2009 20:25:24

um in 2006 we didnt make the playoffs.

by **etched Chaos** » Thu Dec 17, 2009 20:53:01

CalvinBall wrote:um in 2006 we didnt make the playoffs.

Ummmm he was pointing out that lineups can change drastically in a short time.

by **phorever** » Thu Dec 17, 2009 21:01:13

jamiethekiller wrote:so you think this crop with 2 very good starting pitchers, 2 average starters and 1 crapshoot pitcher is enough to get to/win the world series?

we can both agree that 2011 and beyond is going to be up in the air. i don't see us winning the world series with this group in 2010, let alone 2011 or 2012. so we just traded valuable assets for roy halladay for no reason.

IMO this is our last year of chance to win a world series.

you are clearly not in a rational mood.
of course this team is good enough to win the world series in 2010.
they are better than the team that won the world series in 2008.
in case you didn't notice, not every world series features a stacked yankees team on a role. and even a stacked yankees team on a role loses world series. 7 game series are crapshoots.

you clearly want nothing less than to be the runaway preseason favorite to win the world series, just like the yankees usually are. either you have turned into a yankees fan, or you are experiencing a pretty understandable frustration of being one stupid moyer contract and/or one prospect-obsessed gm away from having a lee-halladay-hamels-blanton-happ rotation that really would have made us the odds-on favorites.

me, i like the fact that the halladay and utley contracts are such amazing bargains that we can be favorites to win the nl through 2013 with the current budget, especially because we got back enough in the lee trade to enable future trades to fill holes.

simple reality: we have two of the leagues 10 or so 30 win players in halladay and utley locked up through 2013. we have the financial flexibility and home-field advantage to lock up 20+ win players hamels and werth through the same period. brown projects to be a very cheap premium player by the time the ibanez contract is up. our minor league system is still top 10. the yankees and braves dynasties were built around cores just like this.

but no, you would rather be the orioles.

by **FTN** » Thu Dec 17, 2009 21:17:19

Halladay also has a no-trade provision in his contract, although it's unclear how many teams it includes.

- Zo

by **Mountainphan** » Thu Dec 17, 2009 21:34:50

Unless you believe the other teams have made significant improvement going into 2010, the Phils have to be considered top contenders at least the next two years.

by **CFP** » Thu Dec 17, 2009 22:53:12

FTN wrote:
Halladay also has a no-trade provision in his contract, although it's unclear how many teams it includes.

- Zo

I hope it actually just lists the Mets 29 times over.

My FG articles · by **MattS** » Thu Dec 17, 2009 23:41:03

my take on the trade(s)

i haven't really posted anything the past few days because i've been busy, largely researching everything i needed to write this.

in summary, the whole thing was a teeny-tiny negative for the phillies and an awesome trade for the mariners and blue jays. the halladay trade was a good deal because of the extension being so ridiculously below market that it isn't even funny, and the lee trade was a pointless loss for less talent than lee is worth. they could have lowered payroll any number of ways, as you guys know, and this was just a terribly unproductive way to do it. the halladay deal also was curious because even though most teams made out very well, the jays couldn't have gotten an offer that good elsewhere unless someone overpaid, so it seems weird that the phillies needed to offer as much as they did.

by **FTN** » Thu Dec 17, 2009 23:47:18

i find your logic faulty, based on the information we have from the team.

by **Eem** » Thu Dec 17, 2009 23:50:04

Doc will always be a Blue Jays

http://www.thanksroy.com/

My FG articles · by **MattS** » Thu Dec 17, 2009 23:52:06

FTN wrote:i find your logic faulty, based on the information we have from the team.

i'd like to know what information you're referring to and why you disagree.

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Roy Halladay