Yes on Betances please

Squire wrote:Thought I heard that Cleveland has interest in Cesar Hernandez.

Andrew Miller redux.

Arenado trade proposals

Phillies get: 3B Nolan Arenado

Rockies get: 3B Alec Bohm (MLB's No. 34 prospect), RHP Adonis Medina (Phillies' No. 4 prospect), OF Jay Bruce, RHP David Robertson

I'd do this.

Shore wrote:No way on Ryu

thanks for saving me the trouble of posting during grading weeks this december. having enjoyed not needing to write about why more fa spending this offseaon would be dumb, i look forward to having you take care of explaining why this particular expenditure would be even dumberer.

SCPhillyPhan wrote:Arenado trade proposals

Phillies get: 3B Nolan Arenado

Rockies get: 3B Alec Bohm (MLB's No. 34 prospect), RHP Adonis Medina (Phillies' No. 4 prospect), OF Jay Bruce, RHP David Robertson

I'd do this.

I don't think the Rockies would. Also, you lose the "cheap production" you hope to get from Bohm, so you'll need to find it elsewhere to stay under the cap. Arenado won't be cheap.

phillychuck wrote:

SCPhillyPhan wrote:Arenado trade proposals

Phillies get: 3B Nolan Arenado

Rockies get: 3B Alec Bohm (MLB's No. 34 prospect), RHP Adonis Medina (Phillies' No. 4 prospect), OF Jay Bruce, RHP David Robertson

I'd do this.

I don't think the Rockies would. Also, you lose the "cheap production" you hope to get from Bohm, so you'll need to find it elsewhere to stay under the cap. Arenado won't be cheap.

$35 million base salary for 2020 through 2024. $32 million in 2025. $27 million in 2026. Competitive balance tax value of $32,500,000 for the duration of his 8/260 contract signed last offseason. Player opt out after 2021.

SCPhillyPhan wrote:Arenado trade proposals

Phillies get: 3B Nolan Arenado

Rockies get: 3B Alec Bohm (MLB's No. 34 prospect), RHP Adonis Medina (Phillies' No. 4 prospect), OF Jay Bruce, RHP David Robertson

I'd do this.

Proposals in the link vary in value to me. As far as being fair offers it depends on the likelihood he exercises the opt-out in 2 years.

For the Phillies not sure I do this for 2 years of Nolan. Nice to dump Robertson's contract but they still end up in tax territory. I also think a nearly free Jay Bruce might have some value, which cancels losing Robertson's money for me.

TempleFan22 wrote:Heyman says phillies and Mets prominent in Betances talk.

Heyman now saying Mets unlikely to land him.

Bruce only counts $1.75 million towards the luxury tax, so it's kinda pointless to include him. And the rest of it is two trades in one. Trading Bohm for Arenado and then giving them Medina to dump Robertson. I don't think you're realistically getting under the luxury tax if you get Arenado at $35 million per year, so why pay to dump Robertson, just eat the salary. Bohm for Arenado at 2 years/$70 million is probably fair but very risky with Arenado being able to opt in to a lot of money if it turns out he can't hit outside of Colorado or he suddenly declines. I think I'd rather trade Bohm for Bryant since that's just 2 years with no strings attached. Or just keep Bohm and use the $70 million to sign Ryu.

edit:
at CBP:
Arenado: 19 games, 84 PAs, .576 OPS
Bryant: 15 games, 67 PA, 1.074 OPS

Aranado’s obligatory away stats - 900+ PAs from ‘17 - ‘19, has a slash line of .270/.342/.499 (.841 OPS). Worth those players plus the $30+ m per year and the risk he opts out in 2 years?

Fwiw, if we went into the tax, Robertson’s salary ($11.5m) would add $2.3m in tax. So, if we were already in the tax from getting Arenado, that would be trading Medina to save $2.3m

I’d rather use that money to extend Realmuto and keep the prospects.

BigEd76 wrote:Yes on Betances please

That's a pretty big risk at a position we really can't afford to swing-and-miss again. 32 years old. Abused by the Yanks for 5 years. Coming off shoulder and achilles injuries. Reduced FB rate. Ill pass unless they really have some good intel and/or he's coming cheap.

WhiteyFan wrote:

BigEd76 wrote:Yes on Betances please

That's a pretty big risk at a position we really can't afford to swing-and-miss again. 32 years old. Abused by the Yanks for 5 years. Coming off shoulder and achilles injuries. Reduced FB rate. Ill pass unless they really have some good intel and/or he's coming cheap.

Good post

TempleFan22 wrote:Giglio retweeted some who claims to have Phillies sources (apparently has been accurate) who said the Phillies and Boras are engaged on Ryu.

If I’m looking at the same thing you are that vinfosh guy is one of those people that tweet out every possible scenario and deletes the ones that are wrong in retrospect.

Re: Arenado.

The article mentions that if we do that trade we would also then trade Segura. If we get prospects back for Segura we get back under the tax threshold.

pc's mention of the need for cheap production makes sense. But I don't think there's remotely any guarantee that Bohm produces for us the next two years. We're in win now mode, yes?

Hard to argue that Bruce isn't a freebie. When I read this I wondered why the Rocks would want an older outfielder. So maybe we change that up a little.

WhiteyFan wrote:

BigEd76 wrote:Yes on Betances please

That's a pretty big risk at a position we really can't afford to swing-and-miss again. 32 years old. Abused by the Yanks for 5 years. Coming off shoulder and achilles injuries. Reduced FB rate. Ill pass unless they really have some good intel and/or he's coming cheap.

Saw something this morning that he's looking for 1/$10M

BigEd76 wrote:

WhiteyFan wrote:

BigEd76 wrote:Yes on Betances please

That's a pretty big risk at a position we really can't afford to swing-and-miss again. 32 years old. Abused by the Yanks for 5 years. Coming off shoulder and achilles injuries. Reduced FB rate. Ill pass unless they really have some good intel and/or he's coming cheap.

Saw something this morning that he's looking for 1/$10M

Saw the same thing, Ed. I’d do a 1 year deal.

Former head trainer Scott Sheridan was named MLB's Director of Sports Medicine and Performance for Umpires

BigEd76 wrote:Former head trainer Scott Sheridan was named MLB's Director of Sports Medicine and Performance for Umpires

Best of luck to you there, Scott.