2019-20 Phillies Offseason: Striving for Better Than Average

by **SCPhillyPhan** » Thu Nov 14, 2019 02:47:06

I'm thinking we should be at least a little wary of G Cole given the cheating news out of Houston, errr Oakland. Perhaps the improvements shown by pitchers when they get to Houston has been much more than just a really good pitching coach?

by **phorever** » Thu Nov 14, 2019 06:22:41

i've asked this sort of question in previous offseasons, and am sure I will again in the future...
(a) how much (minimum) do you think it actually would take to get him to sign with the phils?
(b) how much [initial and final bid] would you offer cole to get him to sign with the phils?

my answer for (a) is at least 8*30 or 7*33, unless you throw in some very attractive player options. as the previous strasburg deal illustrated, boras and his clients value the option of jumping ship for deals that are either more rewarding or closer to home after 2 or 3 or 4 years, as long as the players are still be young enough to have a chance of landing a new record-setting contract. if cole can opt out after just 2 years, after completing just his age 30 (!!) season, i think he and boras would settle for 'only' beating the price contract by a slim margin, e.g. 7*32. all of this, though, is an estimate of the minimum, which assumes that the market proves to favor the buyers this offseason.

what i really think is that the phillies will need to beat out a 7*33 or 8*30 bid (without the opt-outs) from a west coast team. to do that, i would open with a bid of 7*34 or 8*30 with opt-outs after 3 years. my final bids would either move the opt-out to year 2 or bump the aav up by 2 million for each of the two initial bids. one reason i'm ok with the opt-out is that we still get 2 or 3 years of the core of cole+nola+bryce+jtr, and the opt-out could actually save us from the poison pill at the back-end of the deal if cole suffers the fate of roy and cliff.

by **rolex** » Thu Nov 14, 2019 10:12:14

7@33 or 8@30 is a lot of beans for a position where physical breakdowns for players at his age are the norm. Instead, money could come close to adding two decent pitchers such as Bumgarner and Hamels or other “second tier” FAs. Would that be a better use of the assets? The Phillies threw $75M at Arietta for not so much production so far. No offense to Jake but, even if he has a decent year in ‘00, that was a poor use of cash.

by **Uncle Milty** » Thu Nov 14, 2019 10:21:18

I assume he'll want to exceed Greinke's AAV ($34.5M), Price's total ($217M) and the 7 year "standard".

(a) 8 years, $276 million
(b) Not enough

by **azrider** » Thu Nov 14, 2019 10:28:50

rolex wrote:7@33 or 8@30 is a lot of beans for a position where physical breakdowns for players at his age are the norm. Instead, money could come close to adding two decent pitchers such as Bumgarner and Hamels or other “second tier” FAs. Would that be a better use of the assets? The Phillies threw $75M at Arietta for not so much production so far. No offense to Jake but, even if he has a decent year in ‘00, that was a poor use of cash.

arietta = mad bum = hamels

by **phorever** » Thu Nov 14, 2019 11:58:13

rolex wrote:7@33 or 8@30 is a lot of beans for a position where physical breakdowns for players at his age are the norm. Instead, money could come close to adding two decent pitchers such as Bumgarner and Hamels or other “second tier” FAs. Would that be a better use of the assets? The Phillies threw $75M at Arietta for not so much production so far. No offense to Jake but, even if he has a decent year in ‘00, that was a poor use of cash.

i think that you may be forgetting how amazing young cole is for a true ace hitting the fa market. the combination of being both young enough that age-related injury risk is low and old enough to be past the early-career overuse/overthrowing injury risk zone makes his risk/reward ratio about as good as it possibly be for a pitching fa. to see this, take a close look at his b-r comp list through age 28... [strasburg, price, santana, weaver, oswald, peavy, hamels, cueto, hudson, verlander]. although it is easy to think of all of the injury-related disappointments they had in their early-to-mid 30s, their performance over the age-equivalents of cole's next three seasons was much better than even i expected before i checked.

g.cole's top 10 comps averaged 5.1 bwar over their age 27-28 seasons and 3.9 bwar over their age 29-31 seasons. for a drop of 1.2 bwar. (only 3 of those 29 age 29-31 pitcher-seasons were below league-average starter value of 2.0 ... strasburg has no age 31 result yet) cole's average over the past 2 seasons is 6.05 bwar. the standard drop would give him an average of 4.95 war. that's worth $45-50 million annually on the fa agent market. it also is worth noting that the lowest age 29-31 bwar from that group belongs to peavy (2.53), who also had the lowest age 27-28 bwar (2.85). no one else was below 3.1 wins per season (worth at least $28million aav), and only peavy and hudson were below 3.6 wins.

a salary of 30 million could be good for $30-60 million of extra value over the first three years, enough to pay for losing one or both of the final years of the contract to injury.

it's pretty nearly impossible to get the same added win value from the fa market as you would get with cole, even spending the same amount of money. the only thing you do is lower the risk of loosing a big chunk of value to injury in the next 3 or 4 years. however, contrary what you imply, cole's closest comps actually have held up pretty darn well in their age 29-31 seasons.

by **SixerLed3** » Thu Nov 14, 2019 12:07:28

SCOTTSDALE, Ariz. — The Phillies did not hire a hitting coach this week at the general managers meetings, but their search did continue to narrow. A source said Thursday that Nationals assistant hitting coach Joe Dillon has emerged as the team’s likely choice.

The hitting coach is the lone vacancy remaining on new manager Joe Girardi’s staff. Dillon, 44, worked for the last two seasons under Nationals hitting coach Kevin Long, whose recommendation of Dillon carried weight with the Phillies because Long was the Yankees’ hitting coach for seven seasons when Girardi managed in the Bronx.

https://www.inquirer.com/phillies/phila ... er+Account

by **MFP** » Thu Nov 14, 2019 12:25:48

Cool. Dillon was who I was hoping they'd hire.

by **stevemc** » Thu Nov 14, 2019 12:28:44

SixerLed3 wrote:
SCOTTSDALE, Ariz. — The Phillies did not hire a hitting coach this week at the general managers meetings, but their search did continue to narrow. A source said Thursday that Nationals assistant hitting coach Joe Dillon has emerged as the team’s likely choice.

The hitting coach is the lone vacancy remaining on new manager Joe Girardi’s staff. Dillon, 44, worked for the last two seasons under Nationals hitting coach Kevin Long, whose recommendation of Dillon carried weight with the Phillies because Long was the Yankees’ hitting coach for seven seasons when Girardi managed in the Bronx.

https://www.inquirer.com/phillies/phila ... er+Account

also from the article:

Dillon is well-steeped in the new-age hitting techniques that the Phillies are teaching at the minor-league level and embraces the use of analytics. He’s a proponent of launch angle and teaching hitters to keep the ball in the air.

by **Werthless** » Thu Nov 14, 2019 12:46:13

Crowd sourced collections of video evidence on the Astros. Wow. They had moved onto whistling, apparently.

https://www.reddit.com/r/baseball/comme ... urce=share

by **WilliamC** » Thu Nov 14, 2019 13:03:18

Not sure how Luhnow or Hinch survive this. Luhnow's statements have been pathetic on all of their missteps.

by **Bill McNeal** » Thu Nov 14, 2019 13:08:57

stevemc wrote:
SixerLed3 wrote:
SCOTTSDALE, Ariz. — The Phillies did not hire a hitting coach this week at the general managers meetings, but their search did continue to narrow. A source said Thursday that Nationals assistant hitting coach Joe Dillon has emerged as the team’s likely choice.

The hitting coach is the lone vacancy remaining on new manager Joe Girardi’s staff. Dillon, 44, worked for the last two seasons under Nationals hitting coach Kevin Long, whose recommendation of Dillon carried weight with the Phillies because Long was the Yankees’ hitting coach for seven seasons when Girardi managed in the Bronx.

https://www.inquirer.com/phillies/phila ... er+Account

also from the article:

Dillon is well-steeped in the new-age hitting techniques that the Phillies are teaching at the minor-league level and embraces the use of analytics. He’s a proponent of launch angle and teaching hitters to keep the ball in the air.

But what is his lunch angle?

by **Stripes** » Thu Nov 14, 2019 13:09:38

WilliamC wrote:Not sure how Luhnow or Hinch survive this. Luhnow's statements have been pathetic on all of their missteps.

They have to lose multiple first round picks, and a fine well into 7 figures, don't they?

by **TempleFan22** » Thu Nov 14, 2019 13:18:22

Mark Feinsand‏Verified account @Feinsand · 8m8 minutes ago
Jake Odorizzi is still considering taking the Twins’ qualifying offer, per a source. The deadline to accept or reject is 5pm ET. @Ken_Rosenthal was on it first.

Would be another starter off the market..

by **Orpheous** » Thu Nov 14, 2019 13:21:05

Stripes wrote:
WilliamC wrote:Not sure how Luhnow or Hinch survive this. Luhnow's statements have been pathetic on all of their missteps.

They have to lose multiple first round picks, and a fine well into 7 figures, don't they?

Much more than that, people should be getting lifetime bans

by **Bucky** » Thu Nov 14, 2019 13:23:32

the one thing that gives me pause is that obviously opponents knew of this 2 years ago, and yet nobody raised a big fuss. So maybe other teams do similar stuff but not so traceable?

by **BatFlipsFTW** » Thu Nov 14, 2019 13:26:37

Orpheous wrote:
Stripes wrote:
WilliamC wrote:Not sure how Luhnow or Hinch survive this. Luhnow's statements have been pathetic on all of their missteps.

They have to lose multiple first round picks, and a fine well into 7 figures, don't they?

Much more than that, people should be getting lifetime bans

Pete Rose got banned for less.

Bucky wrote:the one thing that gives me pause is that obviously opponents knew of this 2 years ago, and yet nobody raised a big fuss. So maybe other teams do similar stuff but not so traceable?

Everyone is.

by **mcare89** » Thu Nov 14, 2019 14:08:21

Orpheous wrote:
Stripes wrote:
WilliamC wrote:Not sure how Luhnow or Hinch survive this. Luhnow's statements have been pathetic on all of their missteps.

They have to lose multiple first round picks, and a fine well into 7 figures, don't they?

Much more than that, people should be getting lifetime bans

why stop there when the electric chair is still an option

Website · by **Wolfgang622** » Thu Nov 14, 2019 14:20:34

BatFlipsFTW wrote:
Pete Rose got banned for less.

Nonsense.

by **Werthless** » Thu Nov 14, 2019 16:10:37

Baseball culture is such that no one wants to snitch on something like this. Some folks are probably afraid of being blackballed over it. That doesn't necessarily mean every team is using electronics to cheat.

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