Trump is not winning Nevada or New Hampshire.

my hot take is georgia will be closer than florida.

CalvinBall wrote:my hot take is georgia will be closer than florida.

FOR ME TO POOP ON!

There was a guy from RCP on MSNBC the other day and he claimed that they gave NC to Trump because he has a bigger lead in one poll, even though Hillary leads in more polls. I wouldn't make any assumption based on that map.

Doll Is Mine wrote:Trump is not winning Nevada or New Hampshire.

The 3 most recent NV polls are Trump +4, Trump +6 and Tie.

For 4 most recent NH polls are Trump +1, Tie, Trump +5 and Tie.

JFLNYC wrote:

Doll Is Mine wrote:Trump is not winning Nevada or New Hampshire.

The 3 most recent NV polls are Trump +4, Trump +6 and Tie.

For 4 most recent NH polls are Trump +1, Tie, Trump +5 and Tie.

I wouldn't put much stock on NV polls. The Latino vote there is always ignored. Jon Ralston said this morning that Dems have their firewall in Clark County already. It will be nearly impossible for Trump to win in NV.

Doll Is Mine wrote:There was a guy from RCP on MSNBC the other day and he claimed that they gave NC to Trump because he has a bigger lead in one poll, even though Hillary leads in more polls. I wouldn't make any assumption based on that map.

The last 4 NC polls are Clinton +3, Trump +2, Trump +7 and Clinton +3.

Monkeyboy wrote:

CalvinBall wrote:

jamiethekiller wrote:

TenuredVulture wrote:I think the SEPTA union should pause the strike on election day at least.

think i heard this morning that they're going for a temporary injunction for the day

still think that will suck. some people wont know that septa will be open that day and just not go vote.

my polling place is a block and a half away though, so hopefully that is the case for a lot of people.

yeh, I would think people would vote close to home. Maybe it even helps because some people won't travel and may have the chance to vote. Or not

think if they strike it'll depress turnout a bunch. people have to leave earlier and get home later because of the travel issue. which means they can't go vote in the morning and they can't vote at night because of dinner/etc..

I agree with jtk

JFLNYC wrote:For the first time I'm genuinely concerned. This is RCP's current "No Tossup" map:



Although it gives HRC the win, if Florida were to go red, Trump would win 270-268. This is in large part due to their currently giving NV and NH to Trump, too, but it's still very, very scary. They've got HRC only up 1.2% in FL.

Looks like a realistic map to me.

CalvinBall wrote:

jamiethekiller wrote:

TenuredVulture wrote:I think the SEPTA union should pause the strike on election day at least.

think i heard this morning that they're going for a temporary injunction for the day

still think that will suck. some people wont know that septa will be open that day and just not go vote.

my polling place is a block and a half away though, so hopefully that is the case for a lot of people.

yeah, i don't think this is a big deal in philly outside of like the far northeast. Although I'm sure there are some elderly who need transportation to go 4 or 5 blocks.

Bucky wrote:

CalvinBall wrote:

jamiethekiller wrote:

TenuredVulture wrote:I think the SEPTA union should pause the strike on election day at least.

think i heard this morning that they're going for a temporary injunction for the day

still think that will suck. some people wont know that septa will be open that day and just not go vote.

my polling place is a block and a half away though, so hopefully that is the case for a lot of people.

yeah, i don't think this is a big deal in philly outside of like the far northeast. Although I'm sure there are some elderly who need transportation to go 4 or 5 blocks.

Contact the Dem outreach if that is the case...they offer rides to the polls.

pacino wrote:

JFLNYC wrote:For the first time I'm genuinely concerned. This is RCP's current "No Tossup" map:



Although it gives HRC the win, if Florida were to go red, Trump would win 270-268. This is in large part due to their currently giving NV and NH to Trump, too, but it's still very, very scary. They've got HRC only up 1.2% in FL.

Looks like a realistic map to me.

I agree for most part with maybe Florida going for Trump, but I still think North Carolina will go blue giving her the election

pacino wrote:

Bucky wrote:

CalvinBall wrote:

jamiethekiller wrote:

TenuredVulture wrote:I think the SEPTA union should pause the strike on election day at least.

think i heard this morning that they're going for a temporary injunction for the day

still think that will suck. some people wont know that septa will be open that day and just not go vote.

my polling place is a block and a half away though, so hopefully that is the case for a lot of people.

yeah, i don't think this is a big deal in philly outside of like the far northeast. Although I'm sure there are some elderly who need transportation to go 4 or 5 blocks.

Contact the Dem outreach if that is the case...they offer rides to the polls.

i think the problem isnt transit to the polls, its transit to their job taking so much extra time that they can't, or won't, get to the polls.

think pacman was targetting the elderly issue

You would hope the Union would be able to see the forrest for the trees. They may win the battle but will most assuredly lose the war if the strike is the deciding factor in whether PA stays blue or goes red. I don't think it will be close enough for it to matter but who knows.

MoBettle wrote:

Bucky wrote:slowhand's friday post got me thinking about the FLA hanging chad and that election.

How was the polling leading up to that day?

IIRC Bush was thought to have a small but clear lead (~2 points) nationally. People thought he was a strong favorite in Florida and made fun of gore for campaigning there the last week.

Everyone seems to forget the huge piece of oppo that dropped on him three days or so before election day, which definitely changed the dynamic and probably made it much closer than it otherwise would have been: he had been arrested in Kennebunkport, ME for a DUI in like 1981.

Doll Is Mine wrote:I turned on MSNBC this morning and they were talking about Trump possibly winning PA. Please stop.

Shortly after Joe went on his rant about it not being over, they had on Michael Moore. Moore noted that 77% of voters are female, people of color and/or between 18 and 35; those people need to do their jobs next Tuesday because there is no way Trump wins any of them. He also talked about the buyer's remorse occurring over the Brexit vote and has warned people about it here. Pretty good line he said he is using with people who tell him they are angry/upset about whatever - the ballot box is not an anger management tool.

Here is the piece:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kiyqlOfSOjM

06hawkalum wrote:You would hope the Union would be able to see the forrest for the trees. They may win the battle but will most assuredly lose the war if the strike is the deciding factor in whether PA stays blue or goes red. I don't think it will be close enough for it to matter but who knows.

No one knows for sure, but supposedly there is a possibility of a settlement toda from what I am hearing (I know people with ties).

mozartpc27 wrote:

06hawkalum wrote:You would hope the Union would be able to see the forrest for the trees. They may win the battle but will most assuredly lose the war if the strike is the deciding factor in whether PA stays blue or goes red. I don't think it will be close enough for it to matter but who knows.

No one knows for sure, but supposedly there is a possibility of a settlement toda from what I am hearing (I know people with ties).

Where do they buy them? My neck accessory collection is lacking.