Puppets For Donald, Two Weeks Until The Rapture, Politics

by **Doll Is Mine** » Wed Nov 02, 2016 22:50:00

jerseyhoya wrote:
mozartpc27 wrote:So it looks like Florida is moving to the red column.

I still think she's going to win Florida

I do too.

by **CalvinBall** » Wed Nov 02, 2016 22:50:46

jerseyhoya wrote:
mozartpc27 wrote:So it looks like Florida is moving to the red column.

I still think she's going to win Florida

I think so too.

She hasn't really ever trailed this whole campaign. It would be pretty remarkable if she lost. Trump still needs a lot to go right and she needs a lot to go wrong. It is possible obviously but not likely.

by **Youseff** » Wed Nov 02, 2016 22:55:03

https://twitter.com/jshkatz/status/793553664724140032

interesting graphic tracking Clinton probabilities across all the main forecasting sites. 538 seems to have the largest swings.

by **Doll Is Mine** » Wed Nov 02, 2016 23:08:40

David Duke tonight during the LA US Senate debate:

"I'm not opposed to all Jews."

by **jerseyhoya** » Wed Nov 02, 2016 23:08:56

Youseff wrote:https://twitter.com/jshkatz/status/793553664724140032

interesting graphic tracking Clinton probabilities across all the main forecasting sites. 538 seems to have the largest swings.

Think 538 and the Princeton and Huff Post models are showing they're flawed with how they handle uncertainty. This race is reasonably close - if it was held today I would bet a tremendous amount of money to win a modest amount of money that Hillary would win - but there's time for one more dip. Anything showing HRC with a greater than 95% win probability seems essentially flawed to me. Meanwhile while Trump *could* win it seems very likely that he will not. There are 272 electoral votes that he has shown no ability to reach, which is problematic for one's chances of winning a majority of the 538 in play. I appreciate 538 hyping uncertainty in two respects - 1) the public polls are truly not good, and placing an excess of faith in them is unwarranted, and 2) I think Nate is right about polling errors generally being systemic in the same direction and states being correlated so if one domino falls chances are many others will as well. However! this is not a 1 in 3 sort of chance. It is ridiculous to think it is. Now, maybe black people don't turnout, maybe 18-29 year olds don't turnout, maybe there are shy Trump voters, maybe everyone's turnout models are wrong. I think given how close the race is with public polls some degree of nerves are fair (especially compared to a week ago), but jesus christ this isn't something Trump wins 1 in 3 times.

That Upshot model looks really good. It moved enough when it was appropriate, but has stayed confident as well.

by **Doll Is Mine** » Wed Nov 02, 2016 23:12:28

Nancy Krieger ‏@hlthiskrieger
This is ENTHUSIASM! @MSNBC Mom breaks into tears: 'I got to vote for a woman for president' http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/hil ... mg00000004 … # via @HuffPostWomen

by **thephan** » Thu Nov 03, 2016 00:35:19

Texas Ag Commissioner, and self described deplorable, tweets about Hil via reference as a Cu#%. First says his account was hacked, then it was accidently a retweet, but facts are fact, and I it was neither.

by **CalvinBall** » Thu Nov 03, 2016 01:07:40

Dem turnout in Clark County NV reportedly going very well. Might be on pace to beat 2012 numbers which is very good for Clinton.

by **pacino** » Thu Nov 03, 2016 06:34:43

thephan wrote:Texas Ag Commissioner, and self described deplorable, tweets about Hil via reference as a Cu#%. First says his account was hacked, then it was accidently a retweet, but facts are fact, and I it was neither.

He interacts with alt right accounts

by **JFLNYC** » Thu Nov 03, 2016 07:45:54

It's gonna be too close for comfort. If Florida and NC go red it could end up 278-260.

by **thephan** » Thu Nov 03, 2016 07:48:18

I guess I am 2 months behind in my news cycle, or the atrocities are piled up so high I cannot see over them, but I missed that the little propaganda dance crew "Freedom Kids" is suing Trump for lack of payment. That was news on September 7th apparently.

BTW - my opinion is that regardless of remedy, these kids should sue for damages caused by Trump and Trump 2016 to their future prosperity, and general credibility. I assume that their money grubbing, spotlight grabbing parents will have sold them off to a cult long before their age of legal consent.

by **Squire** » Thu Nov 03, 2016 08:15:16

Heard an interesting comment on Morning Joe this morning. Guy asserted that polling data inherently assumes that each campaign will be equally organized at the local level to get their votes to the election booths. But we know that the Trump campaign is a disorganized mess without any infrastructure and the Clinton has a solid ground game (as they say) so there is at least a good chance that Trump will underperform his poll numbers.

by **The Crimson Cyclone** » Thu Nov 03, 2016 08:22:20

Squire wrote:Heard an interesting comment on Morning Joe this morning. Guy asserted that polling data inherently assumes that each campaign will be equally organized at the local level to get their votes to the election booths. But we know that the Trump campaign is a disorganized mess without any infrastructure and the Clinton has a solid ground game (as they say) so there is at least a good chance that Trump will underperform his poll numbers.

but also consider that so far in early voting numbers that minority turn out by African Americans is significantly lower than the Obama elections

by **slugsrbad** » Thu Nov 03, 2016 08:24:55

The Crimson Cyclone wrote:
Squire wrote:Heard an interesting comment on Morning Joe this morning. Guy asserted that polling data inherently assumes that each campaign will be equally organized at the local level to get their votes to the election booths. But we know that the Trump campaign is a disorganized mess without any infrastructure and the Clinton has a solid ground game (as they say) so there is at least a good chance that Trump will underperform his poll numbers.

but also consider that so far in early voting numbers that minority turn out by African Americans is significantly lower than the Obama elections

The numbers are up though, and I thought I heard that Latinos are voting early at a higher rate too.

by **The Crimson Cyclone** » Thu Nov 03, 2016 08:28:16

slugsrbad wrote:
The Crimson Cyclone wrote:
Squire wrote:Heard an interesting comment on Morning Joe this morning. Guy asserted that polling data inherently assumes that each campaign will be equally organized at the local level to get their votes to the election booths. But we know that the Trump campaign is a disorganized mess without any infrastructure and the Clinton has a solid ground game (as they say) so there is at least a good chance that Trump will underperform his poll numbers.

but also consider that so far in early voting numbers that minority turn out by African Americans is significantly lower than the Obama elections

The numbers are up though, and I thought I heard that Latinos are voting early at a higher rate too.

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/11/02/us/po ... .html?_r=0

I will admit that the numbers reported this election have all been very conflicting and confusing

by **CalvinBall** » Thu Nov 03, 2016 08:47:49

yo i fucking hate trump. these supporters of him are obsessed with truth but have been duped by a bully and a con man. some reasons particularly more upset with all that this morning.

by **pacino** » Thu Nov 03, 2016 08:57:45

The time 20% possible future president Donald trump tried to remind everyone Jon Stewart was a JEWWWWWW

@realDonaldTrump
If Jon Stewart is so above it all & legit, why did he change his name from Jonathan Leibowitz? He should be proud of his heritage!
12:37 PM - 3 May 2013

@realDonaldTrump
Amazing how the haters & losers keep tweeting the name “F**kface Von Clownstick” like they are so original & like no one else is doing it...
12:35 PM - 3 May 2013

@realDonaldTrump
@caaataclysm Little Jon Stewart(?) Is a pussy, he would be hopeless in a debate with me!
1:22 AM - 11 May 2013

by **pacino** » Thu Nov 03, 2016 08:59:17

CalvinBall wrote:yo i #$!&@ hate trump. these supporters of him are obsessed with truth but have been duped by a bully and a con man. some reasons particularly more upset with all that this morning.

friend told me their daughter in HS said that 'Hillary had people killed, Trumpjust says things'. she meant Whitewater and shit.

and people think the decades of attacks don't land. for people who grew up knowing nothing else, they're all they have.

by **thephan** » Thu Nov 03, 2016 08:59:43

PLANO, Texas (AP) - A man dropping an election worker off at a polling place in a northern Dallas suburb cut his hands on box-cutter blades stuck to a Donald Trump campaign sign placed over an official polling place sign.

The incident happened just after 6 a.m. Tuesday at the Spring Creek Campus of Collin College in Plano. Such campaign signs are barred by state law from polling places, and Collin College spokeswoman Lisa Vasquez said the man was trying to remove the sign when he was cut.

She says the cuts were minor and the man chose to treat them himself. The matter has been reported to the Texas Rangers and campus police, but no arrests had been made as of Wednesday.

by **JUburton** » Thu Nov 03, 2016 09:15:17

im fairly certain the montco trump strategy is to drive around and place signs at intersections given my personal experience in the area

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