I think more Americans than not realize that electing Trump as President would divide this country in a way it hasn't been since the Civil War with more violence, more anger, more hate, etc.

You'd think the sharp money would be enough to keep it from dropping though. I know I've been putting down significant money on Clinton, seems too easy and a decent payout.

jerseyhoya wrote:

MULawPoll ‏@MULawPoll
On Weds and Thurs, 47% favored Clinton, 36% Trump. On Fri, Trump 48%, Clinton 40%. Sat-Mon, Clinton 46%, Trump 40%. #mulawpoll

I don't think she was actually up by 11 in WI at any point in the past week, but that shows a) how noisy samples can be and b) how much news can mess with short term stuff by #$!&@ with response rates

does 'enthusiasm' get factored in to cut through the noise? or is that the point of allowing the big swings to occur and not changing your model?

pacino wrote:

heyeaglefn wrote:

Phred wrote:Can somebody please just re-assure me that he isn't going to win?

I was feeling pretty confident but as the day gets closer I am getting more and more nervous.

My wife is a wreck. She isn't sleeping well and stressed out to the point where she won't put out. If Donald wins, I fear that I am looking at 4 years of celibacy.

Does it have more of an impact to your wife than everyone else for some reason? Not sure I've ever heard of someone getting that worked up about an election that wasn't somehow directly impacted by it more than others.

might have a big heart

also, they're jewish.

my wife is very scared too. i keep telling her not to but she looks at every poll and headline and worries about the future where basically pure hatred wins. she lived in a big bubble for a while and didn't realize the hatred out there, i guess.

Yes. This is correct. Also she tends to be pretty pessimistic and slightly dramatic at times.

Gimpy wrote:

Phred wrote:Can somebody please just re-assure me that he isn't going to win?

I was feeling pretty confident but as the day gets closer I am getting more and more nervous.

My wife is a wreck. She isn't sleeping well and stressed out to the point where she won't put out. If Donald wins, I fear that I am looking at 4 years of celibacy.

Ah, the old Lysistrata move. I wonder how widespread that is.

You know, if Donnie wins, it'll be socially acceptable for you to move on her like a b-word and grab her by the p-word.

what i never understood about this quote is that he is implying that HE is the bitch, not the woman

in all seriousness, does trump have local offices that are filled with volunteers calling people or going out knocking on doors?

i rarely see photos of that kind of stuff.

Unless he's talking about how a dog would mount a bitch in heat.

Phred wrote:Can somebody please just re-assure me that he isn't going to win?

I was feeling pretty confident but as the day gets closer I am getting more and more nervous.

My wife is a wreck. She isn't sleeping well and stressed out to the point where she won't put out. If Donald wins, I fear that I am looking at 4 years of celibacy.

I'm fairly confident she'll win but this is an election for the ages. with the FBI seemingly rebelling against her candidacy & the consistent albeit confusing influence of the Russians in this election I think we should be prepared for anything.

CalvinBall wrote:in all seriousness, does trump have local offices that are filled with volunteers calling people or going out knocking on doors?

i rarely see photos of that kind of stuff.

No. His whole campaign has been a tragic accident from day 1

CalvinBall wrote:in all seriousness, does trump have local offices that are filled with volunteers calling people or going out knocking on doors?

i rarely see photos of that kind of stuff.

berks' republican party simply seems to meet a place in wyomissing to hold dinners and listen to speakers and they have an office in the city where people are making calls. part of it may be that their voters are not grouped as close together for canvassing. Dems are out knocking on doors everyday now and i know they keep blowing up my cellphone.

Doll Is Mine wrote:

CNNVerified account ‏@CNN
'Vote Trump' painted on black church set ablaze in Mississippi http://cnn.it/2feGH3N

Probably says more about me than anything else, but I'm highly suspicious of this. Not sure whether it's better to be proved right or wrong, though.

Phred wrote:

pacino wrote:

heyeaglefn wrote:

Phred wrote:Can somebody please just re-assure me that he isn't going to win?

I was feeling pretty confident but as the day gets closer I am getting more and more nervous.

My wife is a wreck. She isn't sleeping well and stressed out to the point where she won't put out. If Donald wins, I fear that I am looking at 4 years of celibacy.

Does it have more of an impact to your wife than everyone else for some reason? Not sure I've ever heard of someone getting that worked up about an election that wasn't somehow directly impacted by it more than others.

might have a big heart

also, they're jewish.

my wife is very scared too. i keep telling her not to but she looks at every poll and headline and worries about the future where basically pure hatred wins. she lived in a big bubble for a while and didn't realize the hatred out there, i guess.

Yes. This is correct. Also she tends to be pretty pessimistic and slightly dramatic at times.

Also. we live in NC. On our cul-de-sac, there are 28 houses, 5 of which have political signs in the yard...2 Clintons and 3 Trumps...SSS but...

pacino wrote:

CalvinBall wrote:in all seriousness, does trump have local offices that are filled with volunteers calling people or going out knocking on doors?

i rarely see photos of that kind of stuff.

berks' republican party simply seems to meet a place in wyomissing to hold dinners and listen to speakers and they have an office in the city where people are making calls. part of it may be that their voters are not grouped as close together for canvassing. Dems are out knocking on doors everyday now and i know they keep blowing up my cellphone.

and i still think that stuff matters. so that still gives me hope that this should be a comfortable victory.

CalvinBall wrote:

pacino wrote:

CalvinBall wrote:in all seriousness, does trump have local offices that are filled with volunteers calling people or going out knocking on doors?

i rarely see photos of that kind of stuff.

berks' republican party simply seems to meet a place in wyomissing to hold dinners and listen to speakers and they have an office in the city where people are making calls. part of it may be that their voters are not grouped as close together for canvassing. Dems are out knocking on doors everyday now and i know they keep blowing up my cellphone.

and i still think that stuff matters. so that still gives me hope that this should be a comfortable victory.

agreed. Tuesday night is either going to be awesomely awesome or horribly horrible.

CalvinBall wrote:

pacino wrote:

CalvinBall wrote:in all seriousness, does trump have local offices that are filled with volunteers calling people or going out knocking on doors?

i rarely see photos of that kind of stuff.

berks' republican party simply seems to meet a place in wyomissing to hold dinners and listen to speakers and they have an office in the city where people are making calls. part of it may be that their voters are not grouped as close together for canvassing. Dems are out knocking on doors everyday now and i know they keep blowing up my cellphone.

and i still think that stuff matters. so that still gives me hope that this should be a comfortable victory.

i honestly have no idea, but i've read that face-to-face contact can be the biggest convincer.

Or, maybe we are on the other side of the 'look at the all the Trump signs on the highway!' coin. I hope not

Youseff wrote:

Phred wrote:Can somebody please just re-assure me that he isn't going to win?

I was feeling pretty confident but as the day gets closer I am getting more and more nervous.

My wife is a wreck. She isn't sleeping well and stressed out to the point where she won't put out. If Donald wins, I fear that I am looking at 4 years of celibacy.

I'm fairly confident she'll win but this is an election for the ages. with the FBI seemingly rebelling against her candidacy & the consistent albeit confusing influence of the Russians in this election I think we should be prepared for anything.

yea. That's where I'm at.

I don't understand how 538 can project Clinton to win by 5, then they get a Grade A poll (which earlier this month said she was winning by 4) saying she's winning by 6 now, and somehow her chances of winning the overall election go down by 0.6%.

pacino wrote:

jerseyhoya wrote:

MULawPoll ‏@MULawPoll
On Weds and Thurs, 47% favored Clinton, 36% Trump. On Fri, Trump 48%, Clinton 40%. Sat-Mon, Clinton 46%, Trump 40%. #mulawpoll

I don't think she was actually up by 11 in WI at any point in the past week, but that shows a) how noisy samples can be and b) how much news can mess with short term stuff by #$!&@ with response rates

does 'enthusiasm' get factored in to cut through the noise? or is that the point of allowing the big swings to occur and not changing your model?

Different pollsters do different things. Marquette counts you if you say you are certain to vote. The big differential seems to come from non-response - people whose candidate is having a bad news week tend to answer polls less frequently.

Trump child rape accuser will "break silence" tonight: https://twitter.com/LisaBloom/status/793880513018785792

yikes