Puppets For Donald, Two Weeks Until The Rapture, Politics

Re: Puppets For Donald, Two Weeks Until The Rapture, Politic

Postby Bucky » Wed Nov 02, 2016 11:25:02

pacino wrote:the only poll that matters, 4th graders from a local school:

At the end of the school day when all the votes had been counted by Denunzio's class, Clinton won with 52 percent of the vote and Trump was the runner-up with 34 percent.
Johnson garnered 7.5 percent and Stein got 6.5 percent.
Since 1940, the student vote has accurately predicted all but two presidential elections, according to Scholastic, the educational publishing company. The two incorrect predictions were Thomas Dewey over President Harry Truman in 1948 and Richard M. Nixon over John F. Kennedy in 1960.
Scholastic's results from students across the country this year were almost exactly the same as the result at Lorane Elementary School.

Image



i guess this proves that grade 5+ add no value to someone's intelligence

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Re: Puppets For Donald, Two Weeks Until The Rapture, Politic

Postby MoBettle » Wed Nov 02, 2016 11:38:32

Youseff wrote:the weirdest thing about the Trump candidacy is that his supporters seem to like him. there's delusional Clinton supporters that will rationalize away her faults (seen it on BSG in fact) but not to the fevered, impassioned degree that seemingly millions of Trump supporters are willing to go. talking out my human butt like usual, but it seems like so many more people are voting for Hillary as like a sandbag in a hurricane type candidate, whereas the a huge chunk of the Trump supporters are voting for him bc they like him.


This isn't really true though. A higher proportion of people are voting for Clinton than against trump as opposed to vice versa.
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Re: Puppets For Donald, Two Weeks Until The Rapture, Politic

Postby MoBettle » Wed Nov 02, 2016 11:40:27

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/cli ... nst-trump/

Support for my devastating counterpoint.
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Re: Puppets For Donald, Two Weeks Until The Rapture, Politic

Postby MoBettle » Wed Nov 02, 2016 11:42:41

I'm excited to see how all this early voting impacts things. It could really throw off some of the polls that keep going through Election Day. They've really never had to account for something like this before.
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Re: Puppets For Donald, Two Weeks Until The Rapture, Politic

Postby slugsrbad » Wed Nov 02, 2016 11:46:01

MoBettle wrote:http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/clinton-voters-arent-just-voting-against-trump/

Support for my devastating counterpoint.


Who could disagree with whiz kid Harry Enten?
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Re: Puppets For Donald, Two Weeks Until The Rapture, Politic

Postby Youseff » Wed Nov 02, 2016 11:46:19

MoBettle wrote:
Youseff wrote:the weirdest thing about the Trump candidacy is that his supporters seem to like him. there's delusional Clinton supporters that will rationalize away her faults (seen it on BSG in fact) but not to the fevered, impassioned degree that seemingly millions of Trump supporters are willing to go. talking out my human butt like usual, but it seems like so many more people are voting for Hillary as like a sandbag in a hurricane type candidate, whereas the a huge chunk of the Trump supporters are voting for him bc they like him.


This isn't really true though. A higher proportion of people are voting for Clinton than against trump as opposed to vice versa.


874 voters doesn't make my dick hard. I could be wrong but that minuscule survey doesn't match the reality I've observed.
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Re: Puppets For Donald, Two Weeks Until The Rapture, Politic

Postby slugsrbad » Wed Nov 02, 2016 11:49:05

Youseff wrote:
MoBettle wrote:
Youseff wrote:the weirdest thing about the Trump candidacy is that his supporters seem to like him. there's delusional Clinton supporters that will rationalize away her faults (seen it on BSG in fact) but not to the fevered, impassioned degree that seemingly millions of Trump supporters are willing to go. talking out my human butt like usual, but it seems like so many more people are voting for Hillary as like a sandbag in a hurricane type candidate, whereas the a huge chunk of the Trump supporters are voting for him bc they like him.


This isn't really true though. A higher proportion of people are voting for Clinton than against trump as opposed to vice versa.


874 voters doesn't make my dick hard. I could be wrong but that minuscule survey doesn't match the reality I've observed.


So a poll doesn't conform to your personal observations? Well I'll be.
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Re: Puppets For Donald, Two Weeks Until The Rapture, Politic

Postby jerseyhoya » Wed Nov 02, 2016 11:49:13

PA Monmouth poll at 1 PM followed by WI Marquette poll at 1:15 PM is the biggest thing ever

Alas for Youseff the PA poll is gonna have a sample size of around 400 and Marquette will be in the 650-700 range if history is a guide, so he will need to find erection source material elsewhere

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Re: Puppets For Donald, Two Weeks Until The Rapture, Politic

Postby Houshphandzadeh » Wed Nov 02, 2016 11:51:10

I guess statistics is something I will never understand like how a record player makes sound

400 or 700 people is really enough to extrapolate how a state will vote?

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Re: Puppets For Donald, Two Weeks Until The Rapture, Politic

Postby pacino » Wed Nov 02, 2016 11:51:12

pacino wrote:This morning I learned Huma Abedin is a secret Muslim terrorist who is going to bring down the US government from the inside. You know why? BEACAUSE MUZLINS

Turns out I didn't prove anything and connections are very concerning!!!
thephan wrote:pacino's posting is one of the more important things revealed in weeks.

Calvinball wrote:Pacino was right.

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Re: Puppets For Donald, Two Weeks Until The Rapture, Politic

Postby Monkeyboy » Wed Nov 02, 2016 11:51:31

jerseyhoya wrote:
Monkeyboy wrote:walker will find a way to steal WI for Trump

Just like he did for Mitt and Paul Ryan four years ago!

Rigged!



I was referring to the voter suppression efforts there. They are among the most vigorous in the country. If the race tightens up, voter suppression could make a difference, as it did in NJ in '81.

Call it whatever you want.
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Re: Puppets For Donald, Two Weeks Until The Rapture, Politic

Postby pacino » Wed Nov 02, 2016 11:52:04

Bucky wrote:again this morning heard IRL how horrible the 8 years were. "How so? Give me some examples." "Aww, come on, Obama".

ome CON, OBAMA
thephan wrote:pacino's posting is one of the more important things revealed in weeks.

Calvinball wrote:Pacino was right.

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Re: Puppets For Donald, Two Weeks Until The Rapture, Politic

Postby MoBettle » Wed Nov 02, 2016 11:57:11

pacino wrote:
pacino wrote:This morning I learned Huma Abedin is a secret Muslim terrorist who is going to bring down the US government from the inside. You know why? BEACAUSE MUZLINS

Turns out I didn't prove anything and connections are very concerning!!!


That's been a thing for a while. Congress like officially condemned people the first time people spread it. (Condemn isn't the right word but they had some sort of bipartisan smacking down). Then roger stone tried again a few months ago. I had an otherwise very smart friend sent it to me with an unironic "big if true!" Comment.
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Re: Puppets For Donald, Two Weeks Until The Rapture, Politic

Postby The Crimson Cyclone » Wed Nov 02, 2016 11:59:29

pacino wrote:
Bucky wrote:again this morning heard IRL how horrible the 8 years were. "How so? Give me some examples." "Aww, come on, Obama".

ome CON, OBAMA


the statement that I see over and over again that just astounds me is that "Obama made race relations more divisive"
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Re: Puppets For Donald, Two Weeks Until The Rapture, Politic

Postby Youseff » Wed Nov 02, 2016 12:00:26

slugsrbad wrote:
Youseff wrote:
MoBettle wrote:
Youseff wrote:the weirdest thing about the Trump candidacy is that his supporters seem to like him. there's delusional Clinton supporters that will rationalize away her faults (seen it on BSG in fact) but not to the fevered, impassioned degree that seemingly millions of Trump supporters are willing to go. talking out my human butt like usual, but it seems like so many more people are voting for Hillary as like a sandbag in a hurricane type candidate, whereas the a huge chunk of the Trump supporters are voting for him bc they like him.


This isn't really true though. A higher proportion of people are voting for Clinton than against trump as opposed to vice versa.


874 voters doesn't make my dick hard. I could be wrong but that minuscule survey doesn't match the reality I've observed.


So a poll doesn't conform to your personal observations? Well I'll be.


I don't think a poll of 874 of the 200,000,000+ million people that will vote is convincing one way or the other.
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Re: Puppets For Donald, Two Weeks Until The Rapture, Politic

Postby RichmondPhilsFan » Wed Nov 02, 2016 12:03:59

MoBettle wrote:
Youseff wrote:the weirdest thing about the Trump candidacy is that his supporters seem to like him. there's delusional Clinton supporters that will rationalize away her faults (seen it on BSG in fact) but not to the fevered, impassioned degree that seemingly millions of Trump supporters are willing to go. talking out my human butt like usual, but it seems like so many more people are voting for Hillary as like a sandbag in a hurricane type candidate, whereas the a huge chunk of the Trump supporters are voting for him bc they like him.


This isn't really true though. A higher proportion of people are voting for Clinton than against trump as opposed to vice versa.

I think he means that even the pro-Hillary voters still concede many of her flaws, whereas that isn't true as much about Trump's supporters.

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Re: Puppets For Donald, Two Weeks Until The Rapture, Politic

Postby TenuredVulture » Wed Nov 02, 2016 12:05:57

The inferential power of a sample has nothing to do with the population size. That is, a sample of 1000 of a population of 100,000 is just as good as a sample of 1000 out of a population of 10 million.

Think of it like a blood test--they don't take more blood from a fat guy.
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Re: Puppets For Donald, Two Weeks Until The Rapture, Politic

Postby Monkeyboy » Wed Nov 02, 2016 12:06:47

Youseff wrote:
slugsrbad wrote:
Youseff wrote:
MoBettle wrote:
Youseff wrote:the weirdest thing about the Trump candidacy is that his supporters seem to like him. there's delusional Clinton supporters that will rationalize away her faults (seen it on BSG in fact) but not to the fevered, impassioned degree that seemingly millions of Trump supporters are willing to go. talking out my human butt like usual, but it seems like so many more people are voting for Hillary as like a sandbag in a hurricane type candidate, whereas the a huge chunk of the Trump supporters are voting for him bc they like him.


This isn't really true though. A higher proportion of people are voting for Clinton than against trump as opposed to vice versa.


874 voters doesn't make my dick hard. I could be wrong but that minuscule survey doesn't match the reality I've observed.


So a poll doesn't conform to your personal observations? Well I'll be.


I don't think a poll of 874 of the 200,000,000+ million people that will vote is convincing one way or the other.



gotta look at that margin of error
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Re: Puppets For Donald, Two Weeks Until The Rapture, Politic

Postby jerseyhoya » Wed Nov 02, 2016 12:06:55

Houshphandzadeh wrote:I guess statistics is something I will never understand like how a record player makes sound

400 or 700 people is really enough to extrapolate how a state will vote?

If you do it right, it should get you close. Monmouth and Marquette are a few of the public pollsters who are consistently pretty good.

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Re: Puppets For Donald, Two Weeks Until The Rapture, Politic

Postby CalvinBall » Wed Nov 02, 2016 12:07:18

BREAKING - new CNN/ORC polls:

AZ:
Trump 49
Clinton 44

NV:
Trump 49
Clinton 43

FL:
Clinton 49
Trump 47

PA
Clinton 48
Trump 44

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