Orange is the new whack (politics)

by **jerseyhoya** » Tue Oct 18, 2016 09:07:06

CalvinBall wrote:
The Crimson Cyclone wrote:
CalvinBall wrote:The senate keeps looking better each day. At this point Wisconsin, Illinois, and Indiana are locks to flip. Looks like Nevada will stay blue. That means Ds need one of PA, NC, MO, or NH. NH seems to be the most sure thing followed by PA. They have a decent chance to win all 4. That would be a 53-47 Senate.

Bayh also has a coin flip in Indiana

he has been up in every poll since august. 538 has him at 70 percent chance to win fwiw.

I think we're more likely to win Indiana than any of the other states you listed.

by **CalvinBall** » Tue Oct 18, 2016 09:11:06

jerseyhoya wrote:
CalvinBall wrote:
The Crimson Cyclone wrote:
CalvinBall wrote:The senate keeps looking better each day. At this point Wisconsin, Illinois, and Indiana are locks to flip. Looks like Nevada will stay blue. That means Ds need one of PA, NC, MO, or NH. NH seems to be the most sure thing followed by PA. They have a decent chance to win all 4. That would be a 53-47 Senate.

Bayh also has a coin flip in Indiana

he has been up in every poll since august. 538 has him at 70 percent chance to win fwiw.

I think we're more likely to win Indiana than any of the other states you listed.

Polls would seem to indicate otherwise. Why do you think that? Or is it that you think the other 6 are most definitely going Dem as it stands and IN is your only hope?

by **jerseyhoya** » Tue Oct 18, 2016 09:14:37

Bayh is well known and has fallen from the 50s to the low 40s as he's getting pounded for being a lobbyist who doesn't really live in Indiana anymore

I think we're even money or so in NC and MO. Close to 50/50 in NH and NV. PA is tougher, WI looks like it might be back in play somewhat. Florida isn't completely safe for Rubio, but he's ahead. Illinois is gone.

by **pacino** » Tue Oct 18, 2016 09:15:21

he's a really bad candidate who is surviving on his name recognition and money in the bank. It's going the opposite of most of the other Senate races in that as it gets closer to Nov it's tightening towards the Republican.

by **TenuredVulture** » Tue Oct 18, 2016 09:51:32

There are four types of Republican voters--Trump voters, Johnson (or other 3rd party voters), Hillary voters, and demoralized likely to stay at home. voters. There are probably some Trump voters who are mad at the "establishment who don't vote for down ballot Rs, and obviously the stay at home people aren't voting down ballot. But I think most cross over Rs voting for Hillary or Johnson will support the rest of the Republican ticket. Obviously, McCain was appealing to that group saying go ahead and vote for Hillary, don't worry about the court, we'll take care of that as long as you keep the Republicans in the majority. It backfired, because that's not exactly what he said, but I think that was what he was trying to communicate. McCain's statement obviously has a lot of appeal to a Republican who's considering voting for Hillary but worried about the court.

by **Soren** » Tue Oct 18, 2016 09:57:45

So have we talked about McCain posturing that he'll continue to stonewall SCOTUS nominations? That's just bluster right?

by **Youseff** » Tue Oct 18, 2016 09:59:58

Republicans are anti-working government. They've been very clear about that.

by **pacino** » Tue Oct 18, 2016 10:32:47

journalists lean toward Clinton when donating
these journalists include the likes of sports, restaurant and TV critics, former journalists and local standup reporters, so i frankly don't give a shit, but others are very upset.

by **momadance** » Tue Oct 18, 2016 10:44:13

drsmooth wrote:I feel like drumpf is the right president for donald ray pollock's fictional america

by **JFLNYC** » Tue Oct 18, 2016 10:49:41

The Upshot:

Good morning on this, the 21st day before Election Day. Hillary Clinton’s chances reached 91 percent last night — their highest point yet in this election cycle. The latest rise comes from gains in Arizona and Georgia, as well as hints of further weakness in typically safe red states like Alaska and Utah.

From the beginning, Donald J. Trump faced a challenging electoral map, and his campaign has not improved his chances. At this point, even a large polling miss would not be enough for Mr. Trump to win — it will take a sudden and striking change in the fundamentals of the presidential race. As a rule of thumb, we should expect Election Day polling averages to miss by as much as three to four points: Mrs. Clinton’s current lead in the national popular vote is around six to seven points and growing.

With early voting already underway in several states, Mr. Trump’s next (and perhaps last) opportunity to alter the dynamics of the race will come with the third and final presidential debate tomorrow night.

— Josh Katz

by **Doll Is Mine** » Tue Oct 18, 2016 11:21:13

Shadi Rahimi @shadirahimi
A new billboard in Dearborn, Michigan says in Arabic: "Donald Trump: He can't read this, but he's afraid of it."

by **threecount** » Tue Oct 18, 2016 11:43:08

So Curt Schilling confirms he is running against Elizabeth Warren...hope he gets destroyed

by **CalvinBall** » Tue Oct 18, 2016 11:44:29

he will have to win some sort of primary which would be pretty remarkable if he could even do that.

by **momadance** » Tue Oct 18, 2016 11:48:16

First he took your tax dollars, now he's coming for your hearts. What a swell lad.

by **Soren** » Tue Oct 18, 2016 11:49:43

What does the week of November 14th look like if Trump still hasn't conceded and is banging the "rigged" drum? Who, if anyone, tries to muzzle him?

by **jerseyhoya** » Tue Oct 18, 2016 11:50:03

CalvinBall wrote:he will have to win some sort of primary which would be pretty remarkable if he could even do that.

Wouldn't be surprising if he won a GOP primary in Massachusetts. Anyone who runs against Warren is going to lose by many points anyway, and it's not like there's a deep GOP bench in the state.

I would be surprised if he ultimately ended up running. Running for office takes a lot more effort than drunk tweeting.

by **drsmooth** » Tue Oct 18, 2016 11:53:38

slugsrbad wrote:
CalvinBall wrote:
pacino wrote:perhaps, but he'll also be very frustrating!

why is that? like i said, no nothing about his stances on issues.

Quick glance at "on the issues" rundown of him:

1) Wants to drug test welfare recipients (2011)

the drug testing thing is a sop to loons, which is easy for him to back off from once elected and he rounds up the reams of readily available cost-benefit data that shows this is a complete fucking waste of state gummint money and everyone's time

if I recall correctly, welfare recipients are typically cleaner than job applicants. MO may be a bit different but I'm doubting it

by **pacino** » Tue Oct 18, 2016 12:11:09

drsmooth wrote:
slugsrbad wrote:
CalvinBall wrote:
pacino wrote:perhaps, but he'll also be very frustrating!

why is that? like i said, no nothing about his stances on issues.

Quick glance at "on the issues" rundown of him:

1) Wants to drug test welfare recipients (2011)

the drug testing thing is a sop to loons, which is easy for him to back off from once elected and he rounds up the reams of readily available cost-benefit data that shows this is a complete #$!&@ waste of state gummint money and everyone's time

if I recall correctly, welfare recipients are typically cleaner than job applicants. MO may be a bit different but I'm doubting it

it was enacted in Florida and the numbers were 2%. generally people who are on assistance are elderly, disabled or have children and likely don't have the cash to go buy drugs, thus the need for assistance.

by **RichmondPhilsFan** » Tue Oct 18, 2016 12:21:53

Soren wrote:So have we talked about McCain posturing that he'll continue to stonewall SCOTUS nominations? That's just bluster right?

McCain is full of shit. That's just talk to create support in downballot races.

by **TenuredVulture** » Tue Oct 18, 2016 12:24:28

jerseyhoya wrote:
CalvinBall wrote:he will have to win some sort of primary which would be pretty remarkable if he could even do that.

Wouldn't be surprising if he won a GOP primary in Massachusetts. Anyone who runs against Warren is going to lose by many points anyway, and it's not like there's a deep GOP bench in the state.

I would be surprised if he ultimately ended up running. Running for office takes a lot more effort than drunk tweeting.

The Bloody Sock!

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