Soren wrote:
*Wales.

.

No way, I'm going full Jonah

Oh well, no big deal:

Asked by ITV's Good Morning Britain whether he could guarantee that the £350m that was sent to the EU would now go the NHS, Mr Farage said: “No I can’t, I would never have made that claim.

"That was one of the mistakes made by the Leave campaign.”

Later, Mr Farage called for a national "Independence Day" holiday to celebrate the historic vote.

"It's been a huge exercise in democracy," he told Radio 4's Today programme.

No harm, no foul.

"We don't need an election necessarily.... there are two things that need to happen - One, a Brexit prime minister and secondly a negotiating team that are going to go to Brusssels and get us a better deal."

they need a deal maker, one who makes BIG DEALS. I have an idea...

pacino wrote:would-be terrorist bombing on fed building in Arizona foiled

"Terrorist"? Are you nuts? That guy is DEFINITELY not Muslim

http://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles/ ... hought-but

Love Megan's take.

Then here's this:

FTSE (UKX, benchmark equities index) is an absolute CHAMP right, trading -8.7% within the first 10 minutes of the open before clawing-back to all but -1.9% at ‘highs.’ Wrap your head around this: week-to-date, UKX is up over 2.8%! What’s the driver of today’s massive rally? People are getting their arms around the impact of this extraordinarily weak Sterling as a backdoor stimulus for exporters (ironic the power of what a departure from the EU can do vs what x # of kagillions of QE purchases couldn’t get done) and the inevitable rate cut from the BoE.

The fun starts in 5 minutes. Then it's time for things to get real.

This is from the WSJ last week, but this point was raised today (not reported) by a very prominent investor:

One potential risk: margin calls on borrowers. Andrew Evans, head of finance at European law firm Fieldfisher in London, said clients are preparing in case they need to post additional securities as collateral against their bets in case a vote to leave the E.U. drives down the price of their stocks, derivatives or other assets denominated in British pounds.

My bet is that today was the tip of the iceberg. Long-term, I don't think this kills the British economy, but there is some short to mid-term pain to be had.

pacino wrote:

jerseyhoya wrote:

pacino wrote:

jerseyhoya wrote:

pacino wrote:the rise of the right-wing

great

Somewhat, but if you look at how the North of England, the West Midlands, and South Wales voted here and how they vote for parliament, it's a lot more than that

i haven't looked at the crosstabs, but it seems like the Leave campaign took an obvious EU dislike and were able to sway a good amount of people that aren't 'right' in the American sense. Johnson was touting beefing up the NHS, for example. Will that happen? Likely not, but it was promised. They were promising nationalism and getting your money back to use the way you want to; in the UK that also means how the government spends it, no?

If increasing the size of government expenditures on social services is right-wing using a bank shot of nationalism we're stretching the definition of the most of these categorizations past usefulness.

it was a 'who needs 'em?!' appeal. it certainly was, and that's generally more right-wing in nature.

Considering the ones happy with it are the FN and PVV, I feel fairly confident predicting a right-wing wave throughout europe. we've been seeing one for going on 2 years.

Jerz is right, it's a lot more complicated than that. Here's some links for anyone interested in reading up on it.

John Harris has done a good job presenting here the discontent many of the UK's poorest feel and why they're voting leave. (10 minute video): https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfr ... gdom-video

One of the key problems is that many in the UK don't even know what the EU does from day to day because the media don't tell them:
http://www.scotsman.com/news/dominic-hi ... -1-4150388
As a coda to this, two brief anecdotes.

1) I mentioned on twitter to a group of Scottish folk that I had answered a question on the ERM (European Exchange Rate Mechanism) in my final school exams before college. They were stunned and amazed - never came up in their curriculum.

2) I've been listening to the Irish national broadcaster back home a lot more because the Beeb is shite at talking about Ireland in the Euro Championship. On one recent morning show, RTE spoke to two politicians in opposing camps on the referendum, and then moved on to a piece about changes to requirements for non executive directors of companies, a directive put in place by the EU as part of continuing measures to build resilience following 2008. there was no whinging or complaining about it - just the business correspondent talking through the impacts. This *never* happens in UK media.

Interestingly, Boris Johnson plays a hand in this. As a reporter for the Telegraph, he allegedly fibbed repeatedly about bad stuff the EU was doing, just to get a response: http://indy100.independent.co.uk/articl ... bkoHJPBuVZ

Another big factor is how the debate got narrowed down to immigration, and how historically problematic that is. Labour's inability to acknowledge the negative impacts of immigration hasn't made things easy. Gary Younge's column briefly summarises how immigration doesn't get sensibly talked about in the UK: https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfr ... mmigration

My personal contribution to all this is that this referendum was less likely if they'd introduced proportional representation. Cameron had to offer a referendum to hold the conservatives together and stop eurosceptics defecting to UKIP, following the lead of Douglas Carswell who left befoe the last election. First Past the Post requires big tent politics, pulling together lots of disparate political views under one party. Under PR, UKIP would have had some representation in parliament, but I think would have been less likely to exert the pull they have done on the Conservatives. MPs who defected to UKIP would be less likely to be reelected by their constituents as UKIPs support was significant, but not that large. So Cameron could have happily told the defectors to fuck off if they didn't want to stay.

Really, I truly believe that given the way politics has worked in the UK over the last 30 years, we were always very likely to end up here. decisions on how to support state services, the final collapse of manufacturing in the UK and the shift in the economy to service sector jobs and heavy reliance on the financial sector, the inability to address public housing stock badly depleted by thatcher's sell-off to private home owners, the continued focus of labour on targets for the NHS but never addressing the way economic underpinning of it... the list goes on. It's a lot to pack into one question, and no one wanted to have any of those discussions, so instead Remain tried Project Fear 2 (because that worked in Scotland), Leave bleated 'Control!' and 'Immigrants!' on Repeat, no one knew what the fuck they were voting for or against, and in many cases were just glad of a simple vote with no politicians involved, and here we are.

Having said all that, the overall political spectrum has lurched right now. Labour *will* fuck up the task ahead of them, which is how to fight UKIP on their own turf, probably by saying 'we hear your concerns and now immigrants are bad'. UKIP will look for an electoral mandate as the party to keep the new conservative leader honest and hold him to his promises. Just. Can't. Wait.

two further informative reads. Alberto Nardelli on how Brexit will proceed in the UK and the EU:
https://www.buzzfeed.com/albertonardell ... .rillNxpgA

And a good piece on how Northern Ireland can call for a referendum to join Ireland under the Good Friday Agreement (as well as why it probably won't work unless Sinn Fein really up their game politically):
http://www.centreonconstitutionalchange ... difficulty

and for reference, Scotland only gets another referendum if Westminster parliament grants us one. In the face of massive public support, this isn't unlikely, but it doesn't quite have the legal underpinning of the Gpod Friday Agreement.

It took the British shitting the bed to bring out Wiz. The world has gone mad! Welcome old friend, welcome.

that plus Ireland performing well in the Euros. the perfect storm.

The number of people on my Facebook feed who have very strong #taeks about how old people shouldn't be allowed to vote in these sorts of referendums or who stupid UK voters are for leaving is something. Would love to ask them if they know more than 1 or 2 things about how the EU is organized and governed.

i mean, i barely know anything about the inner workings of the EU and some of the misinformation is amazing me. i could only imagine how bad it is for you guys who actually know how it operates. glad to know barely knowing something about a political topic puts you ahead of a decent portion of the population.

What Comes After Brexit - Reforming the EU - Good Storified Twitter rant from Taniel, lefty leaning smart poli sci guy, who is I think a central/eastern European immigrant in the US

Guy makes several good points, but he chose communications history's worst format for conveying them to the world.

Compose an essay and provide a shortlink in each of those tweets, guy, which after the first dozen of same I began to wish he was simply jamming a knitting needle in my eye to get his point across.

jerseyhoya wrote:The number of people on my Facebook feed who have very strong #taeks about how old people shouldn't be allowed to vote in these sorts of referendums or who stupid UK voters are for leaving is something. Would love to ask them if they know more than 1 or 2 things about how the EU is organized and governed.

I'll bet they know what Periscope is, though.

JUburton wrote:Lesson: Old white people fucking love to vote to try and make things the way they used to be.

Quoting for JFL's amusement.

I know what the Interwebs are!

The nation-state can feel as 'inevitable' as, say, 'capitalism', but the form is like most human concoctions: a peculiar grab-bag of conceptual & operational compromises that, to crib from Churchill, are the worst possible form of human governance organization except for all the other ones.

(I still feel the guy who gets this (as well as the most effective ways of conceiving what "this" means as a practical matter, for taking policy/political action) across best is Phillip Bobbitt.)

In previous centuries, when mass human dissatisfaction with 'the' prevailing order boiled over, governing entities (kings, nation-states) would flex their murder power, and 'shoot it out'. Lives were at stake.

Now, in a sense, merely steaks are at stake.

Perversely, that makes arriving at any sort of enduring compromise, any form of 'sustainable governing processes' (yuck - no quantity of A-1 Sauce makes that spinach more appetizing), more rather than less difficult. The right to nurse sullen, dubiously-founded grievances may be more universal than any notion of self-determination.

My wife just showed me an ad for Senator Mark Kirk's re-election campaign in which he lets everyone know that he (1) hates Trump, (2) is on good terms with Obama, and is (3) independent, so vote for him, Republican candidate for Senate.

This gave me the idea that it would be fun to collect into one place ads from candidates who know they are fucked, but still have budgets, and thus an obligation to spend those budgets on things like advertising. For example, I remember when Rendell ran the first time, he ran against Mark Fischer. In the waning days of his campaign, he ran ads in Pittsburgh explaining how much he preferred Primanti brothers sandwiches to Philly cheesesteaks.

You know, desperate.

And of course, Time magazine has done this: http://time.com/3548388/hail-mary-polit ... paign-ads/

Wiz - will Brexit actually happen? I mean they can just kinda ignore the vote and negotiate with the EU like Thatcher did.