The Nightman Cometh wrote:Right, Mitt Romney lost PA by 7 points but Trump can win it.

mozartpc27 wrote:So, thinking about the general:

the game is states, not popular vote. My concern is that HRC could plausibly win the pop vote by a reasonably wide margin, as she will clean Trump's clock in liberal places like New England, Northwest, CA, and probably NY state. There's probably enough of a registration advantage in NJ, DE, & MD to guarantee Clinton those states. And certain other states offended by Trump's brashness probably remain Dem - MN, CO, WI, maybe IA. I also think IL is in the bag for the Dems.

But I think Trump legit puts in play PA, OH, VA, MI, NM, and NV, and those 5 states are more than enough to swing the election. I don't see any states that could swing Dem if Trump is the nominee. If PA is the shakiest of those for Trump, fine, you can take it off the board. Demi still need to keep FL, or win both OH & MI, or both OH & VA, or both MI & VA to keep the White House.

If the Dems can keep NV & NM, then OH or MI are enough to put them over the top without FL. NV & NM and VA as blue and OH, MI, and FL to Rs results in an electoral college tie, which will result in a Trump win.

If all that matters is an "R" - no matter how loose that affiliation - as President, Trump seems to me to give them a plausible shot that, for example, Cruz would not.

But PA, FL, OH,

mozartpc27 wrote:

The Nightman Cometh wrote:Right, Mitt Romney lost PA by 7 points but Trump can win it.

I believe that Trump will do better in PA than Romney did.

jerseyhoya wrote:

mozartpc27 wrote:So, thinking about the general:

the game is states, not popular vote. My concern is that HRC could plausibly win the pop vote by a reasonably wide margin, as she will clean Trump's clock in liberal places like New England, Northwest, CA, and probably NY state. There's probably enough of a registration advantage in NJ, DE, & MD to guarantee Clinton those states. And certain other states offended by Trump's brashness probably remain Dem - MN, CO, WI, maybe IA. I also think IL is in the bag for the Dems.

But I think Trump legit puts in play PA, OH, VA, MI, NM, and NV, and those 5 states are more than enough to swing the election. I don't see any states that could swing Dem if Trump is the nominee. If PA is the shakiest of those for Trump, fine, you can take it off the board. Demi still need to keep FL, or win both OH & MI, or both OH & VA, or both MI & VA to keep the White House.

If the Dems can keep NV & NM, then OH or MI are enough to put them over the top without FL. NV & NM and VA as blue and OH, MI, and FL to Rs results in an electoral college tie, which will result in a Trump win.

If all that matters is an "R" - no matter how loose that affiliation - as President, Trump seems to me to give them a plausible shot that, for example, Cruz would not.

But PA, FL, OH,

Barring unforeseen events it's going to be sooo ugly. My number at work earlier this afternoon was 395-143.

mozartpc27 wrote:

jerseyhoya wrote:

mozartpc27 wrote:So, thinking about the general:

the game is states, not popular vote. My concern is that HRC could plausibly win the pop vote by a reasonably wide margin, as she will clean Trump's clock in liberal places like New England, Northwest, CA, and probably NY state. There's probably enough of a registration advantage in NJ, DE, & MD to guarantee Clinton those states. And certain other states offended by Trump's brashness probably remain Dem - MN, CO, WI, maybe IA. I also think IL is in the bag for the Dems.

But I think Trump legit puts in play PA, OH, VA, MI, NM, and NV, and those 5 states are more than enough to swing the election. I don't see any states that could swing Dem if Trump is the nominee. If PA is the shakiest of those for Trump, fine, you can take it off the board. Demi still need to keep FL, or win both OH & MI, or both OH & VA, or both MI & VA to keep the White House.

If the Dems can keep NV & NM, then OH or MI are enough to put them over the top without FL. NV & NM and VA as blue and OH, MI, and FL to Rs results in an electoral college tie, which will result in a Trump win.

If all that matters is an "R" - no matter how loose that affiliation - as President, Trump seems to me to give them a plausible shot that, for example, Cruz would not.

But PA, FL, OH,

Barring unforeseen events it's going to be sooo ugly. My number at work earlier this afternoon was 395-143.

What states does Trump lose that McCain/Romney did not?

MoBettle wrote:Are there any republicans down ticket that seem like they're trying to imitate trump? Honestly I couldn't be less worried about trump winning but that lower people seem like it could happen in some states

The Nightman Cometh wrote:

mozartpc27 wrote:

The Nightman Cometh wrote:Right, Mitt Romney lost PA by 7 points but Trump can win it.

I believe that Trump will do better in PA than Romney did.

Based on what? Trump has worse favorability ratings and lacks the support of a large section of his party, including the fundraising wing.

jerseyhoya wrote:If you can find me saying Cruz would surely beat him if Kasich got out, then maybe you'd have a point?

jerseyhoya wrote:

The Nightman Cometh wrote:

mozartpc27 wrote:

The Nightman Cometh wrote:Right, Mitt Romney lost PA by 7 points but Trump can win it.

I believe that Trump will do better in PA than Romney did.

Based on what? Trump has worse favorability ratings and lacks the support of a large section of his party, including the fundraising wing.

I think it's reasonable to expect Trump will run relatively better in PA - maybe 2-3% ahead of his national numbers? - while running significantly worse nationally so he ends up doing worse in PA.

Like lose 52-42-6 or something nationally, 51-43-6 in PA?

drsmooth wrote:

jerseyhoya wrote:If you can find me saying Cruz would surely beat him if Kasich got out, then maybe you'd have a point?

You've tried - mightily, sweatily, with profusions of figures - to suggest Cruz might possibly, why not, we're just moving digits around on blinking screens here - beat drumpf in Indiana absent candidate Kasich. So yes, forgive me for assuming 'surely', shirley.

jerseyhoya wrote:Georgia, Arizona, Missouri

The Nightman Cometh wrote:

jerseyhoya wrote:

The Nightman Cometh wrote:

mozartpc27 wrote:

The Nightman Cometh wrote:Right, Mitt Romney lost PA by 7 points but Trump can win it.

I believe that Trump will do better in PA than Romney did.

Based on what? Trump has worse favorability ratings and lacks the support of a large section of his party, including the fundraising wing.

I think it's reasonable to expect Trump will run relatively better in PA - maybe 2-3% ahead of his national numbers? - while running significantly worse nationally so he ends up doing worse in PA.

Like lose 52-42-6 or something nationally, 51-43-6 in PA?

I think Obama beat McCain 54-44, I'm having a hard time seeing it get much better than that. PA is a good Hillary state as well.

mozartpc27 wrote:

jerseyhoya wrote:Georgia, Arizona, Missouri

Missouri and Georgia I could see - but no sure thing.

Arizona - no way. They want the wall more than anybody.

mozartpc27 wrote:What states does Trump lose that McCain/Romney did not?