#Aprilandmayprimariesmatter (politics thread)

by **SK790** » Mon Apr 25, 2016 01:20:13

Maine governor Paul LePage says something racist, is a day that ends in y:

http://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/mai ... nd-n561121

by **Phan In Phlorida** » Mon Apr 25, 2016 02:55:09

Bucky wrote:PiP. Slowhand, TD- you guys are gonna vote for Alan Grayson, right??

(not my district)

by **Bucky** » Mon Apr 25, 2016 06:50:51

(he's running for the senate now so it is your district)

by **pacino** » Mon Apr 25, 2016 07:10:05

SK790 wrote:Maine governor Paul LePage says something racist, is a day that ends in y:

http://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/mai ... nd-n561121

He also vetoed a bill to help people suffering from drug overdoses because reasons

by **drsmooth** » Mon Apr 25, 2016 08:14:17

jerseyhoya wrote:Kasich is ceding Indiana to Cruz and Cruz is doing the same in Oregon and New Mexico. We might just yet not fuck this up.

At least we have a sort-of lab for some of your theories.

So let's understand what your model has happening in IN:

Kasich gets 12% or less of IN's primarying Rs.
Cruz gets a magical 7 or 8 percentage point kicker.
And drumpf? He gets his 40%, or whatever "no benefit from #neverdrumpf consolidation (or its surrogate condition)" is.
Thusly, Cruz squeaks by to victory.

My math is bad so please make any necessary amendments

by **SK790** » Mon Apr 25, 2016 08:21:13

pacino wrote:
SK790 wrote:Maine governor Paul LePage says something racist, is a day that ends in y:

http://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/mai ... nd-n561121

He also vetoed a bill to help people suffering from drug overdoses because reasons

If Trump isn't the embodiment of what anti-PCers really think, it's this moron.

by **JFLNYC** » Mon Apr 25, 2016 08:27:22

It's a big tent.

by **slugsrbad** » Mon Apr 25, 2016 08:28:56

I just love that Kasich bitch slapped Rubio's offer to do something similar with Ohio/Florida. It's times like these I miss Brantt.

by **Phan In Phlorida** » Mon Apr 25, 2016 08:38:24

Bucky wrote:(he's running for the senate now so it is your district)

Shhh! I was hoping it was a bad dream

by **jerseyhoya** » Mon Apr 25, 2016 09:14:55

drsmooth wrote:
jerseyhoya wrote:Kasich is ceding Indiana to Cruz and Cruz is doing the same in Oregon and New Mexico. We might just yet not fuck this up.

At least we have a sort-of lab for some of your theories.

So let's understand what your model has happening in IN:

Kasich gets 12% or less of IN's primarying Rs.
Cruz gets a magical 7 or 8 percentage point kicker.
And drumpf? He gets his 40%, or whatever "no benefit from #neverdrumpf consolidation (or its surrogate condition)" is.
Thusly, Cruz squeaks by to victory.

My math is bad so please make any necessary amendments

If Kasich is at 12% or less, Cruz goes up by 7%, and Trump is still at 40% you've got 8% of the vote unallocated still.

Working from the RCP average, which has Trump leading 39-33-19, I'd hope Kasich falls under 10%, with his vote splitting maybe 70/30. So new numbers Trump 42-40-9. Trump has performed poorly with undecideds all campaign, so say they also break 2/1 for Lyin' Ted. 46-45-9 Cruz looks like a decent guess.

by **drsmooth** » Mon Apr 25, 2016 09:31:44

jerseyhoya wrote:If Kasich is at 12% or less, Cruz goes up by 7%, and Trump is still at 40% you've got 8% of the vote unallocated still.

do tell. I knew that roughly at or before the point at which you told me that my math was bad.

I'd hope Kasich falls under 10%, with his vote splitting maybe 70/30.

What polls I've seen have Kasich getting maybe another 10%. Do you mean by "splitting 70/30" that Cruz gets 7 percentage points of that, & drumpf 3? Not seeing how that's success for Cruz.

But my math was bad

by **jerseyhoya** » Mon Apr 25, 2016 10:01:49

drsmooth wrote:
jerseyhoya wrote:If Kasich is at 12% or less, Cruz goes up by 7%, and Trump is still at 40% you've got 8% of the vote unallocated still.

do tell. I knew that roughly at or before the point at which you told me that my math was bad.

12 + 40 + 40 != 100.

I'd hope Kasich falls under 10%, with his vote splitting maybe 70/30.

What polls I've seen have Kasich getting maybe another 10%. Do you mean by "splitting 70/30" that Cruz gets 7 percentage points of that, & drumpf 3? Not seeing how that's success for Cruz.

But my math was bad

Your math was bad because you were conflating two very different things to try and make a point.

And if you don't see how gaining significantly more votes than Trump gains in a winner take all state is success for Cruz, I don't know what to tell you. This is important. A necessary but insufficient step toward winning the Hoosier State and preventing Trump's nomination.

by **JUburton** » Mon Apr 25, 2016 10:11:14

When I posed my question the other day I didn't realize that IN was largely WTA and that it was so close there. Preventing a Trump victory there would seal Trump not hitting 1237.

by **drsmooth** » Mon Apr 25, 2016 10:31:50

jerseyhoya wrote:And if you don't see how gaining significantly more votes than Trump gains in a winner take all state is success for Cruz, I don't know what to tell you.

where did you get this bit of nonsensical presumption?

sigh

once more, you're straining. It's like your magical Romney thinking all over again.

What I've been suggesting to you, and you've gone every which way to avoid admitting, is that the "math" of Kasich people magically transforming into a redistribution that puts Cruz on top in Indiana, is very unlikely.

This whole maneuver is a long-shot's long shot. You know this.

by **The Nightman Cometh** » Mon Apr 25, 2016 10:42:08

From Mark Murray: Kasich on whether Indiana voters should vote for him or Cruz:

"They ought to vote for me"

by **jerseyhoya** » Mon Apr 25, 2016 10:43:29

drsmooth wrote:
jerseyhoya wrote:And if you don't see how gaining significantly more votes than Trump gains in a winner take all state is success for Cruz, I don't know what to tell you.

where did you get this bit of nonsensical presumption?

sigh

once more, you're straining. It's like your magical Romney thinking all over again.

What I've been suggesting to you, and you've gone every which way to avoid admitting, is that the "math" of Kasich people magically transforming into a redistribution that puts Cruz on top in Indiana, is very unlikely.

This whole maneuver is a long-shot's long shot. You know this.

by **The Nightman Cometh** » Mon Apr 25, 2016 10:44:16

Kasich is so bizarre.

by **JFLNYC** » Mon Apr 25, 2016 11:51:27

What a world we live in! Kasich may be the Pubs only chance at winning the general, but they all hate him.

by **pacino** » Mon Apr 25, 2016 12:03:46

Plus he's kinda weird. I'm watching CNN at the airport and if these are the best options against Clinton, you can pencil in Clinton/Kaine for the next 4 years

by **drsmooth** » Mon Apr 25, 2016 13:15:38

feeling like there's about a 50% chance it comes out, maybe before Cleveland, that more than a couple of the "drumpf protesters" turn out to have been paid by the drumpf campaign

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