JUburton wrote:jh, what are we missing now?

Cruz trails Trump by high single digits in Indiana. It is tied without Kasich in the race. The WTA delegates in Indiana are worth more than Kasich could prevent Trump from winning in the upcoming proportional states.

jerseyhoya wrote:

JUburton wrote:jh, what are we missing now?

Cruz trails Trump by high single digits in Indiana. It is tied without Kasich in the race. The WTA delegates in Indiana are worth more than Kasich could prevent Trump from winning in the upcoming proportional states.

why is it tied? Kasich's polling, weak as the IN polling is, has him with 15-20%. If it splits, there isn't a tie. convince me Kasich voters are a) going to vote Cruz b) going to bother coming out if Kasich is out

It is tied because Kasich voters overwhelmingly go to Cruz. I cannot send you a link demonstrating the veracity of this statement. I don't think any of the public polls out in Indiana asked Trump/Cruz head to head.

I dunno. Things change so rapidly. I think the notion that Trump has a ceiling of ~40% may already be obsolete.

jerseyhoya wrote:It is tied because Kasich voters overwhelmingly go to Cruz. I cannot send you a link demonstrating the veracity of this statement.

I'm easy - just name other states where the kind of head-to-head polls you mention have been done, & I'll go look myself - no need for you to even provide links

drumpf is in CT today. I can smell him from where I am

drsmooth wrote:Going on no facts but guessing both Fox and CBS polling methods are subject to old-timey-process bias. No one in CA has a landline anymore, etc etc

Both have very strong track records with state polling in the recent past.

show me

No, you have a reached a conclusion irregardless of the best and most current evidence. I am not going to waste my time plagiarizing Nate Silver to show you these are reputable polls.

The Nightman Cometh wrote:No, you have a reached a conclusion irregardless of the best and most current evidence. I am not going to waste my time plagiarizing Nate Silver to show you these are reputable polls.

So you don't have your evidence at hand, then

drsmooth wrote:

jerseyhoya wrote:It is tied because Kasich voters overwhelmingly go to Cruz. I cannot send you a link demonstrating the veracity of this statement.

I'm easy - just name other states where the kind of head-to-head polls you mention have been done, & I'll go look myself - no need for you to even provide links

1) Wisconsin - Cruz led the polling average 39-34-20 heading into election day. He won the election 48-35-14. About one third of Kasich voters, recognizing the winner take all nature of the state, abandoned their first choice and chose between the two candidates who had a shot. Overwhelmingly their second choice was Cruz.

2) Cruz's Super PAC is spending heavily in Indiana attacking Kasich. I am sure they are seeing the same thing I did with Kasich second choice voters.

jerseyhoya wrote:.... About one third of Kasich voters....

....Cruz's Super PAC is spending heavily in Indiana attacking Kasich.

Let me see if I'm getting this right: Cruz needs 3/4 or more of Kasich voters, and his peeling off 1/3 of Kasich voters in WI - presumably; we're going with your concept here - signals that he's going to get the job done - especially since Cruz's bright idea for doing so is to use his resources to attack Kasich?

Forgive me for still having some reservations about this theory.

Your math is bad and you should feel bad

I really hope one of Kasich's aides writes an article or book explaining what the thought process in the Kasich inner circle was at this point in the race.

jerseyhoya wrote:Your math is bad and you should feel bad

Bad!

The Nightman Cometh wrote:I really hope one of Kasich's aides writes an article or book explaining what the thought process in the Kasich inner circle was at this point in the race.

Would read. Talked to some smart people the past few days. We're beyond baffled.

I mean, I think it's mostly 'this is a weird year so let's stay in and see what happens'...but the utter lack of either awareness or caring about what they're doing for Trump is horrific.

jerseyhoya wrote:

The Nightman Cometh wrote:I really hope one of Kasich's aides writes an article or book explaining what the thought process in the Kasich inner circle was at this point in the race.

Would read. Talked to some smart people the past few days. We're beyond baffled.

I mean, I think it's mostly 'this is a weird year so let's stay in and see what happens'...but the utter lack of either awareness or caring about what they're doing for Trump is horrific.

Not to go all Occam's razor, but what seems to be the simplest explanation is that Kasich wants Trump to win (or Cruz to lose). The real question then is why does Kasich want Trump to win? It can't be that he's angling for Veep, unless you'd buy some convoluted thing where shortly after the inauguration, Trump resigns or something. Maybe there's some ideological game here--Kasich actually thinks something like the only way to save the Republican party is to destroy it first. This though seems rather silly--though the party is likely to have a hard time winning the Presidency, they're dominant in a majority of states and have a pretty secure majority in the House.

TenuredVulture wrote:

jerseyhoya wrote:

The Nightman Cometh wrote:I really hope one of Kasich's aides writes an article or book explaining what the thought process in the Kasich inner circle was at this point in the race.

Would read. Talked to some smart people the past few days. We're beyond baffled.

I mean, I think it's mostly 'this is a weird year so let's stay in and see what happens'...but the utter lack of either awareness or caring about what they're doing for Trump is horrific.

Not to go all Occam's razor, but what seems to be the simplest explanation is that Kasich wants Trump to win (or Cruz to lose). The real question then is why does Kasich want Trump to win? It can't be that he's angling for Veep, unless you'd buy some convoluted thing where shortly after the inauguration, Trump resigns or something. Maybe there's some ideological game here--Kasich actually thinks something like the only way to save the Republican party is to destroy it first. This though seems rather silly--though the party is likely to have a hard time winning the Presidency, they're dominant in a majority of states and have a pretty secure majority in the House.

Occam's razor is they're stupid

jerseyhoya wrote:Your math is bad and you should feel bad

My math is bad

PiP. Slowhand, TD- you guys are gonna vote for Alan Grayson, right??