#Aprilandmayprimariesmatter (politics thread)

by **pacino** » Sat Apr 23, 2016 21:18:30

that primary has two unlikable candidates in Murphy and Grayson but I guess you have to vote the latter

by **jerseyhoya** » Sat Apr 23, 2016 21:41:13

drsmooth wrote:
jerseyhoya wrote:Your math is bad and you should feel bad

My math is bad

Yes, it is bad. You're using fractions of different things as if they are the same.

Cruz doesn't need 3/4 of Kasich voters. He needs 3/4 of Kasich voters if Trump is getting the other quarter. In the Wisconsin scenario Cruz got 1/3 of Kasich voters while Kasich held onto the other 2/3 of Kasich voters. These are of course very different things.

by **jerseyhoya** » Sat Apr 23, 2016 21:42:35

Bucky wrote:PiP. Slowhand, TD- you guys are gonna vote for Alan Grayson, right??

Alan Grayson is one of the most disgusting, most embarrassing people in American politics. I would LOVE if he was the Dem nominee in Florida. I do not think he will be though.

by **pacino** » Sun Apr 24, 2016 10:15:45

Paul Lepage is a piece of shit and I wish him ill

by **pacino** » Sun Apr 24, 2016 11:52:36

Watching this primary debate...wish Vodvarka and Fetterman weren't there so we could ask the other two more questions

by **pacino** » Sun Apr 24, 2016 11:57:26

Blech Sestak is terrible at talking. It's like Cruz. I'd rather boring talking points than getting fed this speech every sound bite and every answer

by **The Crimson Cyclone** » Sun Apr 24, 2016 13:13:09

So why is "the establishment" against Slestak?

by **pacino** » Sun Apr 24, 2016 13:51:19

because he ran against Specter when Specter switched parties and the Democrats got a valuable seat to flip.

I voted for him in that race. I'm for McGinty in this race because I think she better aligns with Democratic values.

by **Bucky** » Sun Apr 24, 2016 14:40:20

anybody keepin' up with Harris Wofford?

by **JFLNYC** » Sun Apr 24, 2016 16:00:57

His young partner is.

by **swishnicholson** » Sun Apr 24, 2016 16:43:56

jerseyhoya wrote:
TenuredVulture wrote:
jerseyhoya wrote:
The Nightman Cometh wrote:I really hope one of Kasich's aides writes an article or book explaining what the thought process in the Kasich inner circle was at this point in the race.

Would read. Talked to some smart people the past few days. We're beyond baffled.

I mean, I think it's mostly 'this is a weird year so let's stay in and see what happens'...but the utter lack of either awareness or caring about what they're doing for Trump is horrific.

Not to go all Occam's razor, but what seems to be the simplest explanation is that Kasich wants Trump to win (or Cruz to lose). The real question then is why does Kasich want Trump to win? It can't be that he's angling for Veep, unless you'd buy some convoluted thing where shortly after the inauguration, Trump resigns or something. Maybe there's some ideological game here--Kasich actually thinks something like the only way to save the Republican party is to destroy it first. This though seems rather silly--though the party is likely to have a hard time winning the Presidency, they're dominant in a majority of states and have a pretty secure majority in the House.

Occam's razor is they're stupid

Jh sounds a lot closer to the truth. Occam's Razor would point toward Kasich wanting to be President and feeling that 1) he needs to look like a viable candidate to do so and 2) maybe he can squeeze Cruz out and hope the Republicans for a Non-Crazy Identity (RANCID) will rally around him and he'll be able to square off and beat Trump head-to-head in the final primaries. Admittedly, this is extremely far-fetched and a me-first as opposed to party first attitude and I can see why many Republican loyalists would hate it, but it really doesn't seem necessary to go searching for some subtle allegiances or subterfuge to understand his position.

by **jerseyhoya** » Sun Apr 24, 2016 22:14:22

Kasich is ceding Indiana to Cruz and Cruz is doing the same in Oregon and New Mexico. We might just yet not fuck this up.

by **The Nightman Cometh** » Sun Apr 24, 2016 23:09:38

This is going to help, but there is a certain aspect of this that depends on voters being very high information voters. Also depends on this not working in Trump's favor with undecideds, the "odds are stacked against me" narrative has been his strongest and most coherent message.

by **The Nightman Cometh** » Sun Apr 24, 2016 23:10:58

I think this is goinf to help #NeverTrump, but there is also a chance this grosses a lot of reasonable people out.

by **jerseyhoya** » Sun Apr 24, 2016 23:16:42

There is potential downside to this that wouldn't be there with Kasich just dropping out, but this is much better than the status quo

by **CalvinBall** » Sun Apr 24, 2016 23:36:41

jerseyhoya wrote:Kasich is ceding Indiana to Cruz and Cruz is doing the same in Oregon and New Mexico. We might just yet not fuck this up.

How does this work?

by **The Nightman Cometh** » Sun Apr 24, 2016 23:43:32

JH, am I reading too much into a lack of ridiculousness or did Trump's campaign improve dramatically at crafting and staying on a message?

by **jerseyhoya** » Mon Apr 25, 2016 00:11:04

CalvinBall wrote:
jerseyhoya wrote:Kasich is ceding Indiana to Cruz and Cruz is doing the same in Oregon and New Mexico. We might just yet not fuck this up.

How does this work?

Not sure how explicit the alliance is. At the very least it seems Kasich is fully stopping his campaign in Indiana, and I'd guess Cruz will stop attacking him. I hope Kasich explicitly tells the Hoosiers to vote Cruz, but not sure he will. Would be big if Pence and Mitch Daniels endorsed Cruz. If all that happens a) I would very much expect Cruz to win Indiana, and b) if he doesn't Trump will win California by so much nothing else matters.

by **jerseyhoya** » Mon Apr 25, 2016 00:12:16

The Nightman Cometh wrote:JH, am I reading too much into a lack of ridiculousness or did Trump's campaign improve dramatically at crafting and staying on a message?

I think they improved dramatically, but Trump is still a loose cannon and his surrogates are mostly idiots. Like they've moved from being complete amateurs to having some sort of a clue. But it's not like it's a well oiled machine.

by **SK790** » Mon Apr 25, 2016 00:42:30

http://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2016-el ... be-n561026

Being Presidential is actually very easy. I can do it. For sure. It'll make your head spin how presidential I am.

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