The Nightman Cometh wrote:

CalvinBall wrote:

The Nightman Cometh wrote:

JUburton wrote:It's not too late, but if Rubio misses the delegate threshold in a few states on Tuesday he's in trouble. And if he doesn't win Florida, it's over.

We could be looking at presumptive nominee Trump in 18 days.

Rubio needs to close a possible 10 point gap after a debate 4 days before Super Tuesday.

Rubio SHOULD beat the most recent polls by a good amount on Tuesday.

why?

Even the most recent polls going into Tuesday will include a large sample polled before the debate. If the debate is a needle mover, that will be underreported in the polls.

CalvinBall wrote:ok what is a good amount though? a 20 point deficit is a lot to make up. still don't think rubio wins a single state tuesday.

mozartpc27 wrote:

CalvinBall wrote:ok what is a good amount though? a 20 point deficit is a lot to make up. still don't think rubio wins a single state tuesday.

I think he wins Virginia and Minnesota.

The Nightman Cometh wrote:If Trump has evolved into a competent political animal as many have feared, he will say something shocking and slightly racist that will take all of the air out of the room by the end of the day.

ashton wrote:Ivanka Trump is an orthodox Jew. Was not expecting that.

jerseyhoya wrote:

The Nightman Cometh wrote:

CalvinBall wrote:

The Nightman Cometh wrote:

JUburton wrote:It's not too late, but if Rubio misses the delegate threshold in a few states on Tuesday he's in trouble. And if he doesn't win Florida, it's over.

We could be looking at presumptive nominee Trump in 18 days.

Rubio needs to close a possible 10 point gap after a debate 4 days before Super Tuesday.

Rubio SHOULD beat the most recent polls by a good amount on Tuesday.

why?

Even the most recent polls going into Tuesday will include a large sample polled before the debate. If the debate is a needle mover, that will be underreported in the polls.

Also he's outperformed his polls by a good bit in Iowa, SC, and Nevada, and the exit polls have consistently shown people who make their minds up in the last few days before the election are picking Rubio. And his SuperPAC is up on the air most places I think. I saw commercials hitting Trump/Cruz, pushing Rubio during Wheel of Fortune and Jeopardy last night. Don't know if it will be enough to win anywhere, but if he hits the delegate thresholds everywhere Trump's delegate lead will remain very surmountable.

jerseyhoya wrote:Heard something that if true has just ruined my weekend

jerseyhoya wrote:Heard something that if true has just ruined my weekend

jerseyhoya wrote:Heard something that if true has just ruined my weekend

Squire wrote:Even as a Republican and recognizing that I'm repeating Morning Joe points it really is amazing that Hillary gets trouble for "allegedly" spinning the cause of Benghazi for political purposes and its viewed as a big deal and Trump can basically fraudulently bilk people out of money, declare bankruptcy multiple occasions, ship jobs overseas, etc. and none of it has the effect of minimizing his working class support. I'm completely dumbfounded. He's completely insecure which is the opposite of tough.

jerseyhoya wrote:Heard something that if true has just ruined my weekend

jerseyhoya wrote:The 5th in NH thing is a bit of a red herring.

Rubio vs. Kasich so far
IA - 23.1% (3rd) vs. 1.9% (8th)
NH - 10.6% (5th) vs. 15.8% (2nd)
SC - 22.5% (2nd) vs. 7.6% (5th)
NV - 23.9% (2nd) vs. 3.6% (dfl)

So sure Kasich finished three spots ahead of Marco in New Hampshire, but it was only 5% ahead of him, and this was after Kasich spent the better part of 6 months holding town halls in the state while Rubio was building up an infrastructure around the country for the long haul. Kasich does not now have nor did he ever have a path to the nomination. Rubio ceding the field to him would not have made sense. Kasich's continued presence in this race is either due to vanity or delusion or both. I think to some extent people choosing Kasich are doing so fully in the knowledge that it would be smarter to vote for Rubio if their top priority was stopping Trump, but a lot of people don't pay a ton of attention to this stuff and might not be the most strategic of voters. As it stands, Kasich isn't the reason Trump is leading the race, obviously, but if the party is belatedly waking up to the threat and willing to actually fight for its soul, his presence is a real hindrance to consolidating the anti-Trump vote.

JUburton wrote:Calling it Rubio's race to lose at this point is some sort of blinder wearing I cannot understand.