Super Cruzday and the Sandersnistas: Politics

Re: Super Cruzday and the Sandersnistas: Politics

Postby Gimpy » Fri Feb 26, 2016 00:23:17

jerseyhoya wrote:
Gimpy wrote:
jerseyhoya wrote:
Titlehungry wrote:On the bottom of the CNN screen it said... "Trump- Rubio was pouring down sweat"

CNN giving Trump a ton more time than any other candidate tonight, going to Carson and especially Kasich whenever Donald needed a respite, and Cuomo fellating Trump for 10 minutes to start their post debate recap. Trump was still quite bad, but they're doing what they can for their ratings machine.

Can you really blame CNN for that? He's the leader so it's expected that he's going to get the most questions. On top of that, Cruz and Rubio kept going at him in their answers, opening it up for him to respond.

Can I blame CNN for interviewing Trump for an extended period of time immediately after the debate ended with softball questions from another genetic lottery winner after he had 11 more minutes of speaking time during the debate? Yes?


I was talking about during the debate

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Re: Super Cruzday and the Sandersnistas: Politics

Postby drsmooth » Fri Feb 26, 2016 00:39:33

Cuomo's fawning "interview" was...namby-pamby, at best
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Re: Super Cruzday and the Sandersnistas: Politics

Postby Wolfgang622 » Fri Feb 26, 2016 01:01:29

Thought this sums it up pretty nicely, from Nate Silver:

Nate Silver wrote:Micah, on the question of whether the Rubio/Cruz attacks on Trump will have any effect: I don’t know if Trump’s numbers will drop. They might — they did after the South Carolina debate, and after the first debate. But remember, in the first four states, a lot of Trump’s voters decided to vote for The Donald MONTHS ago. That’s why I say that the 30 or 35 percent of the vote Trump has averaged so far is more like a floor than a ceiling. The key question might be more about what happens to what I’d call Trump swing voters. Somewhere around 20 to 30 percent of the Republican electorate has a favorable view of Trump, but aren’t voting for him yet. If Trump gets those voters, he’ll win a majority. If they stick with another candidate, the GOP race could drag out for a while, although Trump could still win with his plurality by accumulating lots of delegates. But if most of them coalesce around the same non-Trump alternative — most likely, Rubio — Trump would lose.
"I'm in a bar with the games sound turned off and that Cespedes home run still sounded like inevitability."

-swish

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Re: Super Cruzday and the Sandersnistas: Politics

Postby Wolfgang622 » Fri Feb 26, 2016 01:29:58

This is the most heart warming political story I can remember reading in pretty much ever:

http://www.usnews.com/news/us/articles/ ... wer?page=2
"I'm in a bar with the games sound turned off and that Cespedes home run still sounded like inevitability."

-swish

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Re: Super Cruzday and the Sandersnistas: Politics

Postby jerseyhoya » Fri Feb 26, 2016 01:39:59

mozartpc27 wrote:Thought this sums it up pretty nicely, from Nate Silver:

Nate Silver wrote:Micah, on the question of whether the Rubio/Cruz attacks on Trump will have any effect: I don’t know if Trump’s numbers will drop. They might — they did after the South Carolina debate, and after the first debate. But remember, in the first four states, a lot of Trump’s voters decided to vote for The Donald MONTHS ago. That’s why I say that the 30 or 35 percent of the vote Trump has averaged so far is more like a floor than a ceiling. The key question might be more about what happens to what I’d call Trump swing voters. Somewhere around 20 to 30 percent of the Republican electorate has a favorable view of Trump, but aren’t voting for him yet. If Trump gets those voters, he’ll win a majority. If they stick with another candidate, the GOP race could drag out for a while, although Trump could still win with his plurality by accumulating lots of delegates. But if most of them coalesce around the same non-Trump alternative — most likely, Rubio — Trump would lose.

This is all correct. Got a lot of work to do, but with people putting the party and the conservative movement before themselves, I think it might just about work out. Kasich and John Weaver might need to be kidnapped though.

One additional benefit to this evening is everyone in the conservative commentariat and/or donor class with questions on whether Marco had what it takes to throw punches at Donald is energized that the fight is not over. My Twitter feed presumably differs from most of yours, but it was so so happy tonight.

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Re: Super Cruzday and the Sandersnistas: Politics

Postby jerseyhoya » Fri Feb 26, 2016 02:36:40



Everything that makes me happy about the debate could be qualified with 'this should have happened six months ago' but it still makes me happy

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Re: Super Cruzday and the Sandersnistas: Politics

Postby SK790 » Fri Feb 26, 2016 06:34:33

Lindsay Graham trashes the GOP. This is real life.

http://gawker.com/lindsey-graham-went-o ... 1761422269
I like teh waether

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Re: Super Cruzday and the Sandersnistas: Politics

Postby drsmooth » Fri Feb 26, 2016 08:07:42

jerseyhoya wrote:Kasich and John Weaver might need to be kidnapped though.


Kasich's your sanest standing candidate. Sanity's not very useful for winning your primary this season, but should it come around to governing, that trait might come in handy.

Turnip's a malodorous toffee-nosed pervert, but weirdly it may be his attempted assertion of "moderate" positions that winds up hurting him most out of last nite
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Re: Super Cruzday and the Sandersnistas: Politics

Postby jerseyhoya » Fri Feb 26, 2016 08:36:47

I don't care if Kasich is Abraham Lincoln and George Washington rolled into one. He's not competing in the majority of states, and his slice of the electorate is coming out of Rubio's vote. He may cost him hitting the delegate threshold in some states Tuesday and depending how things go after last night maybe cost him a win or two. If Rubio and Kasich were in the reverse situation in the polls I'd be flipping out at Rubio, except he'd have gotten out long ago because he's not a selfish ass whose campaign is being run by someone who hates the party. Cruz and Rubio have belatedly recognized the Trump threat. Mr. Reasonable from Ohio still isn't interested in hitting him and is providing him cover on stage in debates and on election night. He needs to get out of the race so badly.

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Re: Super Cruzday and the Sandersnistas: Politics

Postby JUburton » Fri Feb 26, 2016 08:41:44

drsmooth wrote:
jerseyhoya wrote:Kasich and John Weaver might need to be kidnapped though.


Kasich's your sanest standing candidate. Sanity's not very useful for winning your primary this season, but should it come around to governing, that trait might come in handy.

Turnip's a malodorous toffee-nosed pervert, but weirdly it may be his attempted assertion of "moderate" positions that winds up hurting him most out of last nite
It's funny when the sanest candidate still silently wages war against women's rights.

I don't think last night does too much to numbers practically. Though Cruz and Rubio finally went after Trump, guy is made of teflon and the only thing that can hurt him now is an inability to win delegates with a plurality. Republicans, your hope rests on the stubbornness (or I guess the end of that stubbornness) of John Kasich and Ben Carson.

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Re: Super Cruzday and the Sandersnistas: Politics

Postby traderdave » Fri Feb 26, 2016 08:44:30

jerseyhoya wrote:

Everything that makes me happy about the debate could be qualified with 'this should have happened six months ago' but it still makes me happy


That was absolutely fantastic or, as The Douchebag would say, it was a beautiful thing. Rubio did really well in that exchange. Now, lets see if it makes a difference with the morons that are voting for these clowns.

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Re: Super Cruzday and the Sandersnistas: Politics

Postby pacino » Fri Feb 26, 2016 08:53:54

Most of Rubio's ideas are barely different than Trump's except he's more of a neocon so I can't really get myself to 'root' for him.
thephan wrote:pacino's posting is one of the more important things revealed in weeks.

Calvinball wrote:Pacino was right.

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Re: Super Cruzday and the Sandersnistas: Politics

Postby traderdave » Fri Feb 26, 2016 09:01:21

Oh I'm with you; I do not like Rubio at all. But I did enjoy him making Trump look bad.

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Re: Super Cruzday and the Sandersnistas: Politics

Postby pacino » Fri Feb 26, 2016 09:02:19

thephan wrote:pacino's posting is one of the more important things revealed in weeks.

Calvinball wrote:Pacino was right.

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Re: Super Cruzday and the Sandersnistas: Politics

Postby JFLNYC » Fri Feb 26, 2016 09:04:35

Reince Priebus
Reince Priebus – Verified account ‏@Reince

Tonight we saw another spirited debate between the most diverse & well-qualified group of presidential candidates in history #GOPDebate
7:54 PM - 25 Feb 2016
Jamie

"A man who tells lies . . . merely hides the truth. But a man who tells half-lies has forgotten where he put it."

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Re: Super Cruzday and the Sandersnistas: Politics

Postby Bucky » Fri Feb 26, 2016 09:07:07

It seems to me- based on the convention workflow that JH described earlier, that the wingmen may be doing the establishment a favor by staying in now and collecting EVs. If Rump doesn't have enough on the first vote, then all of the wingmen ev's can flip to rubio. If they were to drop out now, they have a risk of losing their pop votes (and thusly EV's) to Rump (escpecially gentle ben). I know that's not the popular theory, but it seems to me that leaving them around as "collectors" to eventually feed to waterboy may be helpful in the long run.

disclaimer: i'm not sure what all the threshold/winner take all implications are.

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Re: Super Cruzday and the Sandersnistas: Politics

Postby CalvinBall » Fri Feb 26, 2016 09:11:42

jerseyhoya wrote:I don't care if Kasich is Abraham Lincoln and George Washington rolled into one. He's not competing in the majority of states, and his slice of the electorate is coming out of Rubio's vote. He may cost him hitting the delegate threshold in some states Tuesday and depending how things go after last night maybe cost him a win or two. If Rubio and Kasich were in the reverse situation in the polls I'd be flipping out at Rubio, except he'd have gotten out long ago because he's not a selfish ass whose campaign is being run by someone who hates the party. Cruz and Rubio have belatedly recognized the Trump threat. Mr. Reasonable from Ohio still isn't interested in hitting him and is providing him cover on stage in debates and on election night. He needs to get out of the race so badly.

i am sorry, what states is rubio going to win tuesday?

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Re: Super Cruzday and the Sandersnistas: Politics

Postby CalvinBall » Fri Feb 26, 2016 09:13:26

mass: Trump 40, Rubio 19, Kasich 19, Cruz 10, Carson 5
Mich: Trump 41, Rubio 17, Cruz 14, Kasich 12, Carson 8
Fla: Trump 45, Rubio 25, Cruz 10, Bush, Carson 5, Kasich 8

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Re: Super Cruzday and the Sandersnistas: Politics

Postby ashton » Fri Feb 26, 2016 09:21:15

jerseyhoya wrote:If Rubio and Kasich were in the reverse situation in the polls I'd be flipping out at Rubio

The situation was reversed. Kasich finished 2nd in New Hampshire and Rubio finished 5th. Where were you then calling on Rubio to drop out?


except [Rubio'd] have gotten out long ago because he's not a selfish ass whose campaign is being run by someone who hates the party.

You've got this backwards. If Rubio cared about the party he would have dropped out and endorsed Kasich (in exchange for a promise of the VP spot) after Rubio finished fifth in New Hampshire. Republicans know that they're supposed to vote for Rubio, if they're still voting for Kasich it's because they don't like Rubio, not because they're unclear about who the not-Trump candidate is.

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Re: Super Cruzday and the Sandersnistas: Politics

Postby JUburton » Fri Feb 26, 2016 09:25:04

ashton wrote:
jerseyhoya wrote:If Rubio and Kasich were in the reverse situation in the polls I'd be flipping out at Rubio

The situation was reversed. Kasich finished 2nd in New Hampshire and Rubio finished 5th. Where were you then calling on Rubio to drop out?


except [Rubio'd] have gotten out long ago because he's not a selfish ass whose campaign is being run by someone who hates the party.

You've got this backwards. If Rubio cared about the party he would have dropped out and endorsed Kasich (in exchange for a promise of the VP spot) after Rubio finished fifth in New Hampshire. Republicans know that they're supposed to vote for Rubio, if they're still voting for Kasich it's because they don't like Rubio, not because they're unclear about who the not-Trump candidate is.
This is pretty shortsighted. He's beaten Kasich in literally every other state. He has way more endorsements and I'm going to just guess a bigger machine behind him.

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