ashton wrote:

jerseyhoya wrote:If Rubio and Kasich were in the reverse situation in the polls I'd be flipping out at Rubio

The situation was reversed. Kasich finished 2nd in New Hampshire and Rubio finished 5th. Where were you then calling on Rubio to drop out?

except [Rubio'd] have gotten out long ago because he's not a selfish ass whose campaign is being run by someone who hates the party.

You've got this backwards. If Rubio cared about the party he would have dropped out and endorsed Kasich (in exchange for a promise of the VP spot) after Rubio finished fifth in New Hampshire. Republicans know that they're supposed to vote for Rubio, if they're still voting for Kasich it's because they don't like Rubio, not because they're unclear about who the not-Trump candidate is.

New Hampshire was the second primary, and there was data showing Rubio favored in far more states than Rubio coming up. The only path for Kasich is to win Ohio and do well in Michigan and hope for a brokered convention. I think he moves the needle more for Rubio than the other way around.

CalvinBall wrote:

jerseyhoya wrote:I don't care if Kasich is Abraham Lincoln and George Washington rolled into one. He's not competing in the majority of states, and his slice of the electorate is coming out of Rubio's vote. He may cost him hitting the delegate threshold in some states Tuesday and depending how things go after last night maybe cost him a win or two. If Rubio and Kasich were in the reverse situation in the polls I'd be flipping out at Rubio, except he'd have gotten out long ago because he's not a selfish ass whose campaign is being run by someone who hates the party. Cruz and Rubio have belatedly recognized the Trump threat. Mr. Reasonable from Ohio still isn't interested in hitting him and is providing him cover on stage in debates and on election night. He needs to get out of the race so badly.

i am sorry, what states is rubio going to win tuesday?

Minnesota, would've thought Virginia was closer than it seems to be, Arkansas? I dunno. Kasich might also play a role in him missing the 20% threshold in Texas and maybe elsewhere.

ashton wrote:

jerseyhoya wrote:If Rubio and Kasich were in the reverse situation in the polls I'd be flipping out at Rubio

The situation was reversed. Kasich finished 2nd in New Hampshire and Rubio finished 5th. Where were you then calling on Rubio to drop out?

except [Rubio'd] have gotten out long ago because he's not a selfish ass whose campaign is being run by someone who hates the party.

You've got this backwards. If Rubio cared about the party he would have dropped out and endorsed Kasich (in exchange for a promise of the VP spot) after Rubio finished fifth in New Hampshire. Republicans know that they're supposed to vote for Rubio, if they're still voting for Kasich it's because they don't like Rubio, not because they're unclear about who the not-Trump candidate is.

The 5th in NH thing is a bit of a red herring.

Rubio vs. Kasich so far
IA - 23.1% (3rd) vs. 1.9% (8th)
NH - 10.6% (5th) vs. 15.8% (2nd)
SC - 22.5% (2nd) vs. 7.6% (5th)
NV - 23.9% (2nd) vs. 3.6% (dfl)

So sure Kasich finished three spots ahead of Marco in New Hampshire, but it was only 5% ahead of him, and this was after Kasich spent the better part of 6 months holding town halls in the state while Rubio was building up an infrastructure around the country for the long haul. Kasich does not now have nor did he ever have a path to the nomination. Rubio ceding the field to him would not have made sense. Kasich's continued presence in this race is either due to vanity or delusion or both. I think to some extent people choosing Kasich are doing so fully in the knowledge that it would be smarter to vote for Rubio if their top priority was stopping Trump, but a lot of people don't pay a ton of attention to this stuff and might not be the most strategic of voters. As it stands, Kasich isn't the reason Trump is leading the race, obviously, but if the party is belatedly waking up to the threat and willing to actually fight for its soul, his presence is a real hindrance to consolidating the anti-Trump vote.

CalvinBall wrote:mass: Trump 40, Rubio 19, Kasich 19, Cruz 10, Carson 5
Mich: Trump 41, Rubio 17, Cruz 14, Kasich 12, Carson 8
Fla: Trump 45, Rubio 25, Cruz 10, Bush, Carson 5, Kasich 8

look at the rubmentum

The only thing that can stop Trump is a two person race. The fate of the party is tied to a tea partier that the establishment hates, a guy who has no idea what he's doing outside of a hospital, and a 'moderate' Ohio governor. My schadenfreude would be off the charts if this circus didn't mean a minuscule chance of a president Trump.

I think the only question after last night is: is it too late?

I'm 80/20 Rubio/Trump at this point.

It's not too late, but if Rubio misses the delegate threshold in a few states on Tuesday he's in trouble. And if he doesn't win Florida, it's over.

We could be looking at presumptive nominee Trump in 18 days.

i just wonder if Rubio even lasts to the convention for the nominee to be taken away from the republican voters, personally

Donald Trump has tweeted the words honer, leightweight, and chocker (2 times) this morning thus far

Is his social media person having a stroke?

i think he's the last famous person to actually tweet his own tweets

pacino wrote:i think he's the last famous person to actually tweet his own tweets

idk, kanye's feed is pretty kanye

oh yeah

pacino wrote:i think he's the last famous person to actually tweet his own tweets

I thought I read somewhere he dictates them to some minion

jerseyhoya wrote:

pacino wrote:i think he's the last famous person to actually tweet his own tweets

I thought I read somewhere he dictates them to some minion

probably to the smartest guy on his team

If Trump has evolved into a competent political animal as many have feared, he will say something shocking and slightly racist that will take all of the air out of the room by the end of the day.

JUburton wrote:It's not too late, but if Rubio misses the delegate threshold in a few states on Tuesday he's in trouble. And if he doesn't win Florida, it's over.

We could be looking at presumptive nominee Trump in 18 days.

Rubio needs to close a possible 10 point gap after a debate 4 days before Super Tuesday.

Rubio SHOULD beat the most recent polls by a good amount on Tuesday.

I'm rooting for Marco Rubio. What a world.

The Nightman Cometh wrote:

JUburton wrote:It's not too late, but if Rubio misses the delegate threshold in a few states on Tuesday he's in trouble. And if he doesn't win Florida, it's over.

We could be looking at presumptive nominee Trump in 18 days.

Rubio needs to close a possible 10 point gap after a debate 4 days before Super Tuesday.

Rubio SHOULD beat the most recent polls by a good amount on Tuesday.

why?

CalvinBall wrote:

The Nightman Cometh wrote:

JUburton wrote:It's not too late, but if Rubio misses the delegate threshold in a few states on Tuesday he's in trouble. And if he doesn't win Florida, it's over.

We could be looking at presumptive nominee Trump in 18 days.

Rubio needs to close a possible 10 point gap after a debate 4 days before Super Tuesday.

Rubio SHOULD beat the most recent polls by a good amount on Tuesday.

why?

Even the most recent polls going into Tuesday will include a large sample polled before the debate. If the debate is a needle mover, that will be underreported in the polls.