John Fetterman is running for Senate
he's in Philly today. Interesting guy.

Houshphandzadeh wrote:is 10-15% really a high prediction? working class Democrats are going to be into his protectionist/"Economic Nationalist" ideas. (heck, I'm into them.) and some of them will be willing to overlook the racist stuff, especially since that will be less of an emphasis if he gets the nomination

I think it's very aggressive.

I also think the "working class Democrats" as you say are right up his ally. Plus, nobody wants to vote for Hillary Clinton.

pacino wrote:John Fetterman is running for Senate
he's in Philly today. Interesting guy.

I'd vote for him just so he could pound the snot out of Ted Cruz

Brantt wrote:I also think the "working class Democrats" as you say are right up his ally. Plus, nobody wants to vote for Hillary Clinton.

"Nobody" trusts her.

Not many trusted Bill either

Casting a vote for them, that's quite a different thing

I think Trump would probably run the best among Democrats out of all of the Republicans running. He's a non-traditional politician and has an appeal that transcends the normal ideological divide between the two parties. He tells you the system is broken and tells it like it is or whatever. And that against Hillary Clinton will peel off plenty of Dem voters because she's not exactly the perfect representative of the working class while she is an avatar of our broken political system.

The flip side of that is he'd probably run the worst among Republicans out of all of the Republicans running. He'd crater with the college educated, professional class side of the party.

That to the side, it's still extremely unlikely that he will be the nominee. Obviously he's doing better than I thought he would, but I'd still feel comfortable betting a lot of money at bad odds against him. He's enjoyed unprecedented free/earned media coverage, and the field against him is splintered. There has been no organized push back against him through paid media. These things will change. The field will find some degree of clarity by the time voting starts, and the GOP and affiliated conservative groups are going to start ramping up against him. Trump as the nominee destroys the party for at least this cycle and maybe a lot longer. The Club for Growth, which usually spends its time targeting incumbent GOP senators/house members it deems insufficiently pure, is launching an initial volley in Iowa.





There is so much of this stuff out there from him that is poison to GOP primary voters, and there will be as much money as there needs to be to fund this stuff. Unless the rules have really changed and nothing that has happened before matters, he will not be the nominee of the Republican Party.

td11 wrote:

MoBettle wrote:7% of democrats voted for Romney, 10% voted for McCain, 11% voted for Bush in 04 and 00. 10% is not ridiculous

The demographics have changed rapidly since 2004. Even your numbers show the trend, mitt was not nearly as unpalatable as Trump (to dems) and he only got 7%. Trump would get like 3-4%

There's no unifying person on the other side like Obama this time around though. Plenty of Democrats can find reasons not to vote for Hillary or Sanders.

I don't think he'd quite get to 10 (And hope we don't have to find out) but it's not that far fetched.

He'd probably get 10-15% of the Dem vote, but he'd probably also lose 20-25% of the Republican vote.

TenuredVulture wrote:He'd probably get 10-15% of the Dem vote, but he'd probably also lose 20-25% of the Republican vote.

No way. They are all talk and would hold their noses and vote for anyone over Hillary.

Brantt wrote:

TenuredVulture wrote:He'd probably get 10-15% of the Dem vote, but he'd probably also lose 20-25% of the Republican vote.

No way. They are all talk and would hold their noses and vote for anyone over Hillary.

I am a whore for the Republican Party, and I would not vote for Trump against Hillary. Wouldn't necessarily vote for her either though.

Brantt wrote:No way. They are all talk and would hold their noses and vote for anyone over Hillary.

I may be the first to apprise you of this fact, but I'm afraid you have no idea at all what you're talking about.

Posting mainly because of the connection with the thread title, but Nate Cohn ran this piece in NYTimes' The Upshot space today, and was instantly pilloried for never once mentioning the Bern - so swiftly, so harshly, that the Times shut its comments down after just 50 were in.

He/the Times deserved the whipping, in my view. Kind of funny in that way.

drsmooth wrote:

Brantt wrote:No way. They are all talk and would hold their noses and vote for anyone over Hillary.

I may be the first to apprise you of this fact, but I'm afraid you have no idea at all what you're talking about.

We'll see.

Easily could be wrong. I think you are completely misreading the political climate and landscape.

pacino wrote:took 3 minutes to see Trump's speech...he basically just says '_____ loves me, can you believe it?!' 'i will be so good at ____ you dont even know'

people lapping this shit up

"Sometimes he puts his foot in his mouth, just like everybody," said Barbara Tomasino, a 65-year-old retired elementary school librarian from Plano, Texas, who donned a dress, shoes and a purse plastered with pictures of Trump's face. "If he gets elected, he might need to tone it down a little bit."

Just say something with unbreakable confidence and the average American will think you are competent, especially if you're telling them what they want to hear. This is the culture we've bred in this country.

It's how Job can introduce his plans for tax cuts and call it a "Right to Rise" despite basically being GWB tax cuts part 2: the death of the estate tax.

Brantt wrote:

drsmooth wrote:

Brantt wrote:No way. They are all talk and would hold their noses and vote for anyone over Hillary.

I may be the first to apprise you of this fact, but I'm afraid you have no idea at all what you're talking about.

We'll see.

Easily could be wrong. I think you are completely misreading the political climate and landscape.

Well then so is everyone else. Trump is, by the polls, the most unlikable candidate in the field. For as many supporters he has, there's more that actively hate him. I don't think you're wrong, he could win a sizeable portion of the Dem vote, but doc is right, he will lose a lot of base voters who will either vote for Hillary because they're moderates or 3rd party because they see Trump as a joke (he is).

Let's not forget, as the campaign goes on, Trump will continue to shit on the rest of the field and will alienate himself from some of their supporters (turns out when your discourse is just personal attacks you don't win over hearts).

Him winning would ensure a Democrat victory more so than a Sanders win would do for the Republicans, IMO.

jerseyhoya wrote:I think Trump would probably run the best among Democrats out of all of the Republicans running. He's a non-traditional politician and has an appeal that transcends the normal ideological divide between the two parties. He tells you the system is broken and tells it like it is or whatever. And that against Hillary Clinton will peel off plenty of Dem voters because she's not exactly the perfect representative of the working class while she is an avatar of our broken political system.

The flip side of that is he'd probably run the worst among Republicans out of all of the Republicans running. He'd crater with the college educated, professional class side of the party.

Has anyone done a poll on Trump support wrt educational level? I bet it's weighted heavily toward the "dropped out in 5th grade" demographic.

drsmooth wrote:Posting mainly because of the connection with the thread title, but Nate Cohn ran this piece in NYTimes' The Upshot space today, and was instantly pilloried for never once mentioning the Bern - so swiftly, so harshly, that the Times shut its comments down after just 50 were in.

He/the Times deserved the whipping, in my view. Kind of funny in that way.

I'm not as crazy about this as some of Bernie's supporters, but he really has gotten a raw deal with the media. I don't think this is some sort of crazy conspiracy like some of my friends do, though...

SK790 wrote:

jerseyhoya wrote:I think Trump would probably run the best among Democrats out of all of the Republicans running. He's a non-traditional politician and has an appeal that transcends the normal ideological divide between the two parties. He tells you the system is broken and tells it like it is or whatever. And that against Hillary Clinton will peel off plenty of Dem voters because she's not exactly the perfect representative of the working class while she is an avatar of our broken political system.

The flip side of that is he'd probably run the worst among Republicans out of all of the Republicans running. He'd crater with the college educated, professional class side of the party.

Has anyone done a poll on Trump support wrt educational level? I bet it's weighted heavily toward the "dropped out in 5th grade" demographic.

No, I don't think the polls show that. He cuts across most GOP subsets except 'establishment' and if you want an experienced politicans.

SK790 wrote:

jerseyhoya wrote:I think Trump would probably run the best among Democrats out of all of the Republicans running. He's a non-traditional politician and has an appeal that transcends the normal ideological divide between the two parties. He tells you the system is broken and tells it like it is or whatever. And that against Hillary Clinton will peel off plenty of Dem voters because she's not exactly the perfect representative of the working class while she is an avatar of our broken political system.

The flip side of that is he'd probably run the worst among Republicans out of all of the Republicans running. He'd crater with the college educated, professional class side of the party.

Has anyone done a poll on Trump support wrt educational level? I bet it's weighted heavily toward the "dropped out in 5th grade" demographic.

Who Are Trump's Supporters

First, Trump’s support is not particularly ideological. In recent YouGov polls, 20 percent of his supporters describe themselves as “liberal” or “moderate,” with 65 percent saying they are “conservative” and only 13 percent labeling themselves as “very conservative.” Less than a third of his supporters say they are involved with the Tea Party movement. Their views put them on the right side of the American electorate, but they cover the Republican mainstream.

In terms of demographics, Trump’s supporters are a bit older, less educated and earn less than the average Republican. Slightly over half are women. About half are between 45 and 64 years of age, with another 34 percent over 65 years old and less than 2 percent younger than 30. One half of his voters have a high school education or less, compared to 19 percent with a college or post-graduate degree. Slightly over a third of his supporters earn less than $50,000 per year, while 11 percent earn over $100,000 per year. Definitely not country club Republicans, but not terribly unusual either.

For reference - in the 2012 election the educational attainment breakdown of the electorate according to the exit polls was
3% Less than high school
21% High school grad
29% Some college
29% College grad
18% Post grad degree