Crimea and Putinishment (politics)

Re: Crimea and Putinishment (politics)

Postby thephan » Tue Apr 01, 2014 09:27:14

slugsrbad wrote:man, I don't want to be alive for WWIII


Russia is certainly winning the PsyOps at the moment. There are several areas quaking in fear of an aggressive Russia, restrained NATO, perceived weak US, and the economic dependency difficulties that the global market has created (specifically the price control of Russian Natural Gas). I am not sure how to read the tea leaves (ask LG, not the guy in the computer industry) about the gutted Russian manufacturing due to the fortunes brought to the country by Russian petrochemicals which has provided comfort and wealth that is not sustainable.
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Re: Crimea and Putinishment (politics)

Postby pacino » Tue Apr 01, 2014 09:35:17

Report shows no evidence that torture led to bin laden:
By: BRADLEY KLAPPER (AP)
WASHINGTONCopyright 2014 The Associated Press. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten or redistributed.
38.8951-77.0364

WASHINGTON (AP) — A Senate investigation concludes waterboarding and other harsh interrogation methods provided no key evidence in the hunt for Osama bin Laden, according to congressional aides and outside experts familiar with a still-secret, 6,200-page report. The finding could deepen the worst rift in years between lawmakers and the CIA.

The CIA disputes the conclusion and already is locked with the Senate intelligence committee in an acrimonious fight amid dueling charges of snooping and competing criminal referrals to the Justice Department. The public may soon get the chance to decide, with the congressional panel planning to vote Thursday to demand a summary of its review be declassified.

From the moment of bin Laden's death almost three years ago, former Bush administration figures and top CIA officials have cited the evidence trail leading to the al-Qaida mastermind's walled Pakistani compound as vindication of the "enhanced interrogation techniques" they authorized after the Sept. 11, 2001, attacks.


The most high-profile detainee linked to the bin Laden investigation was Khalid Sheikh Mohammed, the accused 9/11 mastermind who was waterboarded 183 times. Mohammed, intelligence officials have noted, confirmed after his 2003 capture that he knew an important al-Qaida courier with the nom de guerre Abu Ahmed al-Kuwaiti.

The Senate report concludes such information wasn't critical, according to the aides. Mohammed only discussed al-Kuwaiti months after being waterboarded, while he was under standard interrogation, they said. And Mohammed neither acknowledged al-Kuwaiti's significance nor provided interrogators with the courier's real name

In any case, it still took the CIA years to learn al-Kuwaiti's real identity: Sheikh Abu Ahmed, a Pakistani man born in Kuwait. How the U.S. learned of Ahmed's name is still unclear.

Without providing full details, aides said the Senate report illustrates the importance of the National Security Agency's efforts overseas.

Intelligence officials have previously described how in the years when the CIA couldn't find where bin Laden's courier was, NSA eavesdroppers came up with nothing until 2010 — when Ahmed had a telephone conversation with someone monitored by U.S. intelligence.

At that point, U.S. intelligence was able to follow Ahmed to bin Laden's hideout
thephan wrote:pacino's posting is one of the more important things revealed in weeks.

Calvinball wrote:Pacino was right.

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Re: Crimea and Putinishment (politics)

Postby Luzinski's Gut » Tue Apr 01, 2014 10:26:50

I don't know if they are quaking in fear, but the Russians have certainly seized the initiative and have kept NATO off balance.

As far as the Russian manufacturing base, they have kept a number of their key military production facilities open through the last 20 years. Russian equipment is generally far cruder than Western kit, and can be manufactured a lot quicker than our horrendous acquistion programs.

I suspect Finland and Sweden will be joining NATO within the next year. I don't see Russia making a gambit for the Finnish land mass, that will trigger a widespread war and Putin doesn't want that. He's going to pick around the periphery and take what he can get.

Honestly, this is just the re-establishment of the Russians as a power. They'll utilize their gas and oil reserves as strategic weapons against Western Europe, but that actually could be a benefit for the West if they make some investments into infrastructure.

War is very, very unlikely to occur, unless the Russians cross over the Dnepr into Western Ukraine (I meant to say Eastern Ukraine in my earlier post) and I'd even put that at 50/50. Generally, it just sucks ass to border Russia...
thephan wrote:
slugsrbad wrote:man, I don't want to be alive for WWIII


Russia is certainly winning the PsyOps at the moment. There are several areas quaking in fear of an aggressive Russia, restrained NATO, perceived weak US, and the economic dependency difficulties that the global market has created (specifically the price control of Russian Natural Gas). I am not sure how to read the tea leaves (ask LG, not the guy in the computer industry) about the gutted Russian manufacturing due to the fortunes brought to the country by Russian petrochemicals which has provided comfort and wealth that is not sustainable.
"Of all of Ruben's gifts, the ability to simultaneously punch 4 million people in the dick is probably his most impressive." Endless Summer
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Re: Crimea and Putinishment (politics)

Postby drsmooth » Tue Apr 01, 2014 10:40:36

how long before the beleagured russian military forces decide that hey, fuck this shit, we're holding the guns, and none of this sabre-rattling shit does much for us or our families, let's go pop a cap in that dog-faced putin's ass?
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Re: Crimea and Putinishment (politics)

Postby Luzinski's Gut » Tue Apr 01, 2014 11:02:28

I suppose that's always a possibility, but a lot of the senior Russian military believe in Putin, a lot of the Russian people believe in Putin as well.

Russia has been ruled by strongmen since the founding of the nation, and the people generally like that form of government.

So I don't think it's likely.
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Re: Crimea and Putinishment (politics)

Postby drsmooth » Tue Apr 01, 2014 12:26:49

Luzinski's Gut wrote:I suppose that's always a possibility, but a lot of the senior Russian military believe in Putin, a lot of the Russian people believe in Putin as well.

Russia has been ruled by strongmen since the founding of the nation, and the people generally like that form of government.

So I don't think it's likely.


so what does/will motivate this crack fighting force to march off on any misadventure poots cooks up?
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Re: Crimea and Putinishment (politics)

Postby TenuredVulture » Tue Apr 01, 2014 12:45:49

drsmooth wrote:
Luzinski's Gut wrote:I suppose that's always a possibility, but a lot of the senior Russian military believe in Putin, a lot of the Russian people believe in Putin as well.

Russia has been ruled by strongmen since the founding of the nation, and the people generally like that form of government.

So I don't think it's likely.


so what does/will motivate this crack fighting force to march off on any misadventure poots cooks up?

Booty.
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Re: Crimea and Putinishment (politics)

Postby drsmooth » Tue Apr 01, 2014 12:49:00

so we can expect them to put Sweden on their ambush list then?
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Re: Crimea and Putinishment (politics)

Postby Luzinski's Gut » Tue Apr 01, 2014 13:04:38

http://www.nato.int/cps/en/natolive/news_108501.htm

NATO just issued a redline for further Russian adventurism.
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Re: Crimea and Putinishment (politics)

Postby Luzinski's Gut » Tue Apr 01, 2014 13:05:22

Vodka, money, promotions, fear.


drsmooth wrote:
Luzinski's Gut wrote:I suppose that's always a possibility, but a lot of the senior Russian military believe in Putin, a lot of the Russian people believe in Putin as well.

Russia has been ruled by strongmen since the founding of the nation, and the people generally like that form of government.

So I don't think it's likely.


so what does/will motivate this crack fighting force to march off on any misadventure poots cooks up?
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Re: Crimea and Putinishment (politics)

Postby Gimpy » Tue Apr 01, 2014 14:18:30

Luzinski's Gut wrote:http://www.nato.int/cps/en/natolive/news_108501.htm

NATO just issued a redline for further Russian adventurism.


It's probably just one of those April Fools Jokes that NATO is so well known for.

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Re: Crimea and Putinishment (politics)

Postby thephan » Tue Apr 01, 2014 15:04:23

Putin has made some segment of the populate comfortable with petroleum money, he landed the winter Olympics, had his tough man photos circulate the internet, and has managed to remain essentially in control since he was acting president in 1999. So, he has been a Russian style provider for 15 years. It is unlikely that he is going anywhere, except the black Sea for some R&R and shirtless photo ops.
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Re: Crimea and Putinishment (politics)

Postby Werthless » Tue Apr 01, 2014 16:53:10

Gimpy wrote:
Luzinski's Gut wrote:http://www.nato.int/cps/en/natolive/news_108501.htm

NATO just issued a redline for further Russian adventurism.


It's probably just one of those April Fools Jokes that NATO is so well known for.

:)

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Re: Crimea and Putinishment (politics)

Postby Monkeyboy » Tue Apr 01, 2014 18:14:05

So any chance we can work with the Saudis and our own petroleum reserves to ramp up petroleum production enough to hurt Russia economically, as we did in the 80's? They can barely pay their debts and would certainly be hurt by a lowering of oil prices.

This Russian aggression is just another reason to hate oil companies and their willingness to block any form of alternative energy, imho. NATO is having trouble responding because they need that sweet, sweet oil.
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Re: Crimea and Putinishment (politics)

Postby TenuredVulture » Tue Apr 01, 2014 20:04:20

Monkeyboy wrote:So any chance we can work with the Saudis and our own petroleum reserves to ramp up petroleum production enough to hurt Russia economically, as we did in the 80's? They can barely pay their debts and would certainly be hurt by a lowering of oil prices.

This Russian aggression is just another reason to hate oil companies and their willingness to block any form of alternative energy, imho. NATO is having trouble responding because they need that sweet, sweet oil.


We can certainly hurt their pricing power on the gas side once we get our gas infrastructure up to speed.
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Re: Crimea and Putinishment (politics)

Postby cshort » Tue Apr 01, 2014 20:46:19

Luzinski's Gut wrote:http://www.nato.int/cps/en/natolive/news_108501.htm

NATO just issued a redline for further Russian adventurism.


So what's the redline? Unless I missed something, it simply states that NATO is working with the Ukraine more, Russia has misbehaved, and NATO isn't happy about it.
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Re: Crimea and Putinishment (politics)

Postby Luzinski's Gut » Tue Apr 01, 2014 21:28:53

NATO-speak is amazing. Took me about six months to understand how they use language to press home a point.

"We support the sovereignty, political independence, and territorial integrity of all states within their internationally recognised borders. An independent, sovereign, and stable Ukraine, firmly committed to democracy and respect for human rights, minorities, and the rule of law, is key to Euro-Atlantic security."

Translation: Don't go any further or we'll do something. Sometime. Somehow.

"Today NATO and Ukraine have agreed, as set out in the statement by the NATO-Ukraine Commission, to implement immediate and longer-term measures in order to strengthen Ukraine’s ability to provide for its own security."

Translation: We'll sell you a bunch of modern equipment. We might chuck some troops under the radar to help you train as well.

"We have also today agreed a package of measures aimed at deepening our cooperation with other NATO partners in Eastern Europe, in consultation with them and within our existing bilateral programmes."

Translation: We're going to conduct some exercises with multi-national units, probably in Poland.

"We have decided to suspend all practical civilian and military cooperation between NATO and Russia."

Translation: Fuck you Russia. We're not helping you with any sort of capability. Have fun with the Chechens!

"We will continue to provide appropriate reinforcement and visible assurance of NATO’s cohesion and commitment to deterrence and collective defence against any threat of aggression to the Alliance."

Translation: Don't come across the international border between Russia and Ukraine. Any sort of adventurism in the Baltics will be met with a military response. Basically, they probably would invoke Article 5, which was invoked right after 9/11.
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Re: Crimea and Putinishment (politics)

Postby jerseyhoya » Tue Apr 01, 2014 22:05:44

Vince Gray, four years after beating Fenty in a primary, is getting slaughtered tonight by Muriel Bowser.

On the one hand, it's always good to see the guy who seems likely to be indicted/candidate backed by Marion Barry lose. On the other, if he had made the general, I think Catania would've had a real chance.

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Re: Crimea and Putinishment (politics)

Postby jerseyhoya » Tue Apr 01, 2014 22:06:35

Luzinski's Gut wrote:NATO-speak is amazing. Took me about six months to understand how they use language to press home a point.

"We support the sovereignty, political independence, and territorial integrity of all states within their internationally recognised borders. An independent, sovereign, and stable Ukraine, firmly committed to democracy and respect for human rights, minorities, and the rule of law, is key to Euro-Atlantic security."

Translation: Don't go any further or we'll do something. Sometime. Somehow.

"Today NATO and Ukraine have agreed, as set out in the statement by the NATO-Ukraine Commission, to implement immediate and longer-term measures in order to strengthen Ukraine’s ability to provide for its own security."

Translation: We'll sell you a bunch of modern equipment. We might chuck some troops under the radar to help you train as well.

"We have also today agreed a package of measures aimed at deepening our cooperation with other NATO partners in Eastern Europe, in consultation with them and within our existing bilateral programmes."

Translation: We're going to conduct some exercises with multi-national units, probably in Poland.

"We have decided to suspend all practical civilian and military cooperation between NATO and Russia."

Translation: Fuck you Russia. We're not helping you with any sort of capability. Have fun with the Chechens!

"We will continue to provide appropriate reinforcement and visible assurance of NATO’s cohesion and commitment to deterrence and collective defence against any threat of aggression to the Alliance."

Translation: Don't come across the international border between Russia and Ukraine. Any sort of adventurism in the Baltics will be met with a military response. Basically, they probably would invoke Article 5, which was invoked right after 9/11.

But isn't Ukraine not in NATO. Can they invoke Article 5 with a non-member being invaded?

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Re: Crimea and Putinishment (politics)

Postby Luzinski's Gut » Tue Apr 01, 2014 22:17:20

Probably not, it's likely a warning to the Russians not to go any further.
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