hardcore BATTLESHIP... the POLITICS thread

Re: hardcore BATTLESHIP... the POLITICS thread

Postby phatj » Fri Oct 26, 2012 19:57:56

Swiggers wrote:
pacino wrote:domez-vous?


dormez.

(pedantic en francais)

Ahem... "pédant"
they were a chick hanging out with her friends at a bar, the Phillies would be the 320 lb chick with a nose wart and a dick - Trent Steele

phatj
Moderator
 
Posts: 20683
Joined: Thu Dec 28, 2006 23:07:06
Location: Andaman Limp Dick of Certain Doom

Re: hardcore BATTLESHIP... the POLITICS thread

Postby Wolfgang622 » Fri Oct 26, 2012 20:04:41

phatj wrote:
Swiggers wrote:
pacino wrote:domez-vous?


dormez.

(pedantic en francais)

Ahem... "pédant"


HAHAHAHAHAHA

Zing!
"I'm in a bar with the games sound turned off and that Cespedes home run still sounded like inevitability."

-swish

Wolfgang622
Plays the Game the Right Way
Plays the Game the Right Way
 
Posts: 28653
Joined: Sat Jan 06, 2007 23:11:51
Location: Baseball Heaven

Re: hardcore BATTLESHIP... the POLITICS thread

Postby Philly the Kid » Fri Oct 26, 2012 20:06:46

Found this on FB an hour ago:

This is the beginning of a series of notes I plan on posting in the run-up to the election. I'm writing to all who consider themselves "liberal," "progressive," or in any way "left" who are still planning on voting for Obama. I'm going to post on a different issue everyday to demonstrate the way that Obama does not represent our interests.

But first, an introduction to put all of this in context. I voted for Obama in 2008. I didn't agree with Obama on every issue then, but I thought he would represent a fundamental break with the Bush years, which is what he promised with his slogan of "change." He was elected with a mandate to make fundamental reforms to the system. In addition to electing a Democratic president, the country elected large Democratic majorities in the House and the Senate (including a filibuster-proof majority in the Senate). In addition to a mandate and a Democratic Congress, Obama had a massive database of grassroots supporters and small donors mobilized during the election ready to take action during his presidency to support his agenda.

The story of what actually unfolded is what I will tell over the next week or so, but suffice it to say, Obama betrayed his promises, maintained the status quo, and in many instances extended Bush's policies even further to the right. In fact, I would argue that Obama's most significant legacy is to consolidate, codify, and legitimize the policies of the Bush years. He has taken the radical right policies of Bush, made them mainstream, and pacified any left-wing resistance to them.

I know that I will be accused by many of being impractical or having my head in the clouds. "What's the alternative?," they'll ask. "A vote for a third-party candidate is a vote for Romney." So, let me just say, I am not fundamentally opposed to the Democratic Party. I have often voted for Democrats and believe that, however imperfect it may be, there have been moments when the Democratic Party has been an instrument for change. The death of George McGovern this past week is a reminder of a time when the Democractic Party actually did stand for something. But that moment has passed, and the Democratic Party now serves the interests of the same powerful elites that the Republican Party serves. There is no party in the U.S. representing the left; there are two right-wing parties. In fact, the Democratic Party has become in many ways even more insidious than the Republican Party because it is more effective at selling the same policies for many of the reasons I mention above. It's a sort of "Nixon-to-China" effect: Nixon was able to open trade with Communist China because he was a Republican, while Democrats during the Cold War would have been accused of being "soft on Communism." In much the same way, Obama is able to get away with many of the same things that Bush did (some even worse), while if Bush had done them, "progressives" would have been protesting in the street.

I don't know anyone at this point who really believes in Obama; pretty much everyone I know who considers him- or herself a progressive plans to vote for Obama based on a lesser-of-two-evils logic. I hope to refute that logic in the posts to come, but for now I challenge anyone to name a single specific, substantive policy difference between Obama and Romney.

There has to be a line in the sand, a certain point at which people on the left refuse to support Democrats. If there is no line in the sand, and no matter how much our interests are betrayed, we continue to vote for Democrats, what message does that send? Democrats will rightly conclude that we are not to be taken seriously, that our votes can be taken for granted. And this is precisely the message that Democrats have gotten in the last four years, especially during the debate surrounding Obamacare, which I will talk about in the coming posts. I'm not against all compromise; there are plenty of times where it makes sense to accept a candidate who is less than ideal but who represents at least some of our interests. What I am going to argue is that Obama represents a wholesale rejection of our interests - not just incremental progress, but a giant step backward. And if there is ever any hope of the Democratic Party becoming an instrument of change at any point in the future, it is necessary that Democrats know they cannot take the base for granted.


I'm deff going to follow this guy in lieu of my earlier post. I agree with his analysis of Obama's policies and the climate with which he came in to office. Not sure if I'll agree with his conclusions on what to do, or how to energize a 3rd party that could be taken seriously? Nader at his best never garnered the 5% required to get matching funds for campaigns future... while there's nothing in teh constitution about 2 party system, there's not a lot of 3rd party stuff througout. E V Debs was a long time ago...

Not sure how to break the cycle, or how to be free of Clinton/Obama Dems... McGovern's passing was a reminder of how far the entire frame has moved to the right. Regan, Bush, Cheney, Romney, Quayle, and the rw idealogs would have been seen as extremist nut jobs in the early mid 70's...

Philly the Kid
Space Cadet
Space Cadet
 
Posts: 19434
Joined: Sat Jun 09, 2007 13:25:27

Re: hardcore BATTLESHIP... the POLITICS thread

Postby pacino » Fri Oct 26, 2012 20:11:14

he had six months of a 'filibuster-proof' senate.
thephan wrote:pacino's posting is one of the more important things revealed in weeks.

Calvinball wrote:Pacino was right.

pacino
Moderator / BSG MVP
Moderator / BSG MVP
 
Posts: 75831
Joined: Thu Dec 28, 2006 18:37:20
Location: Furkin Good

Re: hardcore BATTLESHIP... the POLITICS thread

Postby Philly the Kid » Fri Oct 26, 2012 20:21:16

pacino wrote:he had six months of a 'filibuster-proof' senate.


First hundred days he could have done a lot. had the reps back-pedaling after the mess Bush left and the economy... also had excited younger voters and people who generally have the attitude that what they do or think doesn't matter ... he never intended to change a thing

Philly the Kid
Space Cadet
Space Cadet
 
Posts: 19434
Joined: Sat Jun 09, 2007 13:25:27

Re: hardcore BATTLESHIP... the POLITICS thread

Postby pacino » Fri Oct 26, 2012 20:24:38

sooooo, his and your solution is to not vote for obama? the supreme court will change this country for years to come if we don't.

also, franken was not seated during his first 100 days
thephan wrote:pacino's posting is one of the more important things revealed in weeks.

Calvinball wrote:Pacino was right.

pacino
Moderator / BSG MVP
Moderator / BSG MVP
 
Posts: 75831
Joined: Thu Dec 28, 2006 18:37:20
Location: Furkin Good

Re: hardcore BATTLESHIP... the POLITICS thread

Postby Bucky » Fri Oct 26, 2012 20:25:14

election sign on fire in Upper Gwynedd. Oh boy.

Bucky
BSG MVP
BSG MVP
 
Posts: 58018
Joined: Fri Dec 29, 2006 19:24:05
Location: You_Still_Have_To_Visit_Us

Re: hardcore BATTLESHIP... the POLITICS thread

Postby pacino » Fri Oct 26, 2012 20:30:50

the reading school district is fucked:

The Reading School District looks nothing like it did just a year ago. A $43 million deficit this year has resulted in 13 percent fewer teachers on its payroll, and a scramble to fill those gaps. Many furloughed rehires are teaching in unfamiliar fields. For example, Brad Richards, a longtime sixth-grade history veteran, presides over a kindergarten class. The capacity of pre-kindergarten has been cut in half. Because Pennsylvania schools by rule can't fire teachers unless a school is closed or a program is shut down, certain vocational and technology classes simply don't exist anymore. Fewer security guards monitor student brawls and school safety inside the halls, and those who remain operate without the help of police officers, whom the district deemed too expensive to hire from the city.

More students jostle for less space. The intermediate schools and the high school are flooded with extra kids, the refugees of three defunct middle-school "gateways" opened a few years ago.

Similar woes are hitting low-income school districts elsewhere.

Cities in New York, Illinois and Pennsylvania generally feel the worst financial squeeze, according to the Education Law Center's school funding fairness report, because their local funding sources favor wealthier school districts over needier areas -- and because they sometimes spend more money than necessary in affluent suburbs. Taxpayers in poorer areas can only afford smaller school budgets for themselves before state aid kicks in. This is a problem, says the report's co-author Bruce Baker, a Rutgers University education professor, because districts with needier students have to pay a premium to recruit and keep good teachers. They also need additional funds to provide services that help close the gap between disadvantaged students and their better-off peers.

Reading is emblematic of poor cities nationwide, bruised not only by blows to education but also by a dearth of consistent leadership. According to numerous audits, the Reading school system has long been plagued with dysfunction, nepotism and administrative churn. As education reform leaders and unions fight over policies that mandate rigorous teacher evaluations and encourage the growth of charter schools, poor kids are losing out in the most basic of ways -- a situation that embeds them deeper in the cycle of poverty.


At first glance, Reading looks like many other low-income, mid-size American cities: Brightly painted row homes are surrounded by sprawling trees, public buses whiz by, and cop cars are everywhere. But talk to someone active in government, and they'll tell you that the trees don't belong there. In fact, they're major storm risks with branches that get tangled up in power lines, and they only stand because the city is too poor or preoccupied to deal with that particular problem. The knowledgeable also tell you that families as large as 10 sometimes live on one floor of the narrow, 8-foot-wide row homes that line Reading's streets. And that 5,000 of the city's 24,000 residences -- and countless factory buildings -- are unoccupied, untended and left to fester.

Reading is a city of contrasts -- with huge, historic Victorian homes minutes away from homeless shelters and junkies -- and so are its schools. Reading High School, commonly known as "The Castle on the Hill," rises beautifully in the skyline, a reminder of a time when Reading Railroad and the factories supplied by its trains provided residents with more jobs and higher incomes. But only slightly more than half of the students who enter the stunning school these days ever graduate.


one of the top 5 school districts in the state is right across the schuylkill river from it, too. please read this entire article. it's heartbreaking. my sister was one of those teachers let go, btw.
thephan wrote:pacino's posting is one of the more important things revealed in weeks.

Calvinball wrote:Pacino was right.

pacino
Moderator / BSG MVP
Moderator / BSG MVP
 
Posts: 75831
Joined: Thu Dec 28, 2006 18:37:20
Location: Furkin Good

Re: hardcore BATTLESHIP... the POLITICS thread

Postby Philly the Kid » Fri Oct 26, 2012 20:40:49

pacino wrote:sooooo, his and your solution is to not vote for obama? the supreme court will change this country for years to come if we don't.

also, franken was not seated during his first 100 days



I said, it's a complex topic. Of course I don't want Romney in there. But the truth is, that in the majority of instances, policies of Obama are horrendous. I don't think he'll put an Alito Thomas or Roberts on the bench, but he isn't appointing any true liberals and persons of deep conviction either.

So much damage has been done.

I can entertain two thoughts at the same time

1) Obama stinks and his policies stink - he's another militaristic corporate president bought and owned

2) Romney is worse

3) I don't want Romney in there

4) I'd like to envision a strategy to get out of this cycle so that a 3rd party could become viable or viable enough to put pressure on the Dems to stand for something even near what I believe

5) Obama wasted the support he had. He could have made moves and been supported popularly. Instead, he pandered to corp, and military. The rhetoric is bs.

Philly the Kid
Space Cadet
Space Cadet
 
Posts: 19434
Joined: Sat Jun 09, 2007 13:25:27

Re: hardcore BATTLESHIP... the POLITICS thread

Postby drsmooth » Fri Oct 26, 2012 21:30:46

jerseyhoya wrote:
td11 wrote:are they calling the same 800 though? there have been tons of polls presumably

Just back of the envelope math, if there's about a 9% response rate, you'd need to make 9,000 calls to get an 800 person sample. ~8 million people live in VA, ~6 million 18+, ~5 million are registered voters. If there've been 100 polls conducted with 9000 calls made, you're what, somewhere between 15-20% to have gotten a call? Maybe 1 in 3 chances since there are two of you (which matters for pollsters who call cell phones or off RV lists as opposed to doing random digit dialing of landlines).

I think people who are surprised they haven't been called usually haven't thought about the math.


I have a group insurance client in the polling business. It ain't math. it's business. They find people who will answer the phone, those numbers get 'revisited'.

which of course may make it LESS likely any particular person gets called
Yes, but in a double utley you can put your utley on top they other guy's utley, and you're the winner. (Swish)

drsmooth
BSG MVP
BSG MVP
 
Posts: 47349
Joined: Thu Dec 28, 2006 19:24:48
Location: Low station

Re: hardcore BATTLESHIP... the POLITICS thread

Postby Squire » Fri Oct 26, 2012 22:58:13

What I never understood was why the threat of a mere filibuster was sufficient. Call the bluff on that crap and make your case to the American public. Was there ever even a single actual read from the phonebook filibuster??

Squire
Space Cadet
Space Cadet
 
Posts: 11747
Joined: Tue Jan 09, 2007 16:50:35

Re: hardcore BATTLESHIP... the POLITICS thread

Postby Wolfgang622 » Fri Oct 26, 2012 23:14:05

pacino wrote:the reading school district is fucked:

The Reading School District looks nothing like it did just a year ago. A $43 million deficit this year has resulted in 13 percent fewer teachers on its payroll, and a scramble to fill those gaps. Many furloughed rehires are teaching in unfamiliar fields. For example, Brad Richards, a longtime sixth-grade history veteran, presides over a kindergarten class. The capacity of pre-kindergarten has been cut in half. Because Pennsylvania schools by rule can't fire teachers unless a school is closed or a program is shut down, certain vocational and technology classes simply don't exist anymore. Fewer security guards monitor student brawls and school safety inside the halls, and those who remain operate without the help of police officers, whom the district deemed too expensive to hire from the city.

More students jostle for less space. The intermediate schools and the high school are flooded with extra kids, the refugees of three defunct middle-school "gateways" opened a few years ago.

Similar woes are hitting low-income school districts elsewhere.

Cities in New York, Illinois and Pennsylvania generally feel the worst financial squeeze, according to the Education Law Center's school funding fairness report, because their local funding sources favor wealthier school districts over needier areas -- and because they sometimes spend more money than necessary in affluent suburbs. Taxpayers in poorer areas can only afford smaller school budgets for themselves before state aid kicks in. This is a problem, says the report's co-author Bruce Baker, a Rutgers University education professor, because districts with needier students have to pay a premium to recruit and keep good teachers. They also need additional funds to provide services that help close the gap between disadvantaged students and their better-off peers.

Reading is emblematic of poor cities nationwide, bruised not only by blows to education but also by a dearth of consistent leadership. According to numerous audits, the Reading school system has long been plagued with dysfunction, nepotism and administrative churn. As education reform leaders and unions fight over policies that mandate rigorous teacher evaluations and encourage the growth of charter schools, poor kids are losing out in the most basic of ways -- a situation that embeds them deeper in the cycle of poverty.


At first glance, Reading looks like many other low-income, mid-size American cities: Brightly painted row homes are surrounded by sprawling trees, public buses whiz by, and cop cars are everywhere. But talk to someone active in government, and they'll tell you that the trees don't belong there. In fact, they're major storm risks with branches that get tangled up in power lines, and they only stand because the city is too poor or preoccupied to deal with that particular problem. The knowledgeable also tell you that families as large as 10 sometimes live on one floor of the narrow, 8-foot-wide row homes that line Reading's streets. And that 5,000 of the city's 24,000 residences -- and countless factory buildings -- are unoccupied, untended and left to fester.

Reading is a city of contrasts -- with huge, historic Victorian homes minutes away from homeless shelters and junkies -- and so are its schools. Reading High School, commonly known as "The Castle on the Hill," rises beautifully in the skyline, a reminder of a time when Reading Railroad and the factories supplied by its trains provided residents with more jobs and higher incomes. But only slightly more than half of the students who enter the stunning school these days ever graduate.


one of the top 5 school districts in the state is right across the schuylkill river from it, too. please read this entire article. it's heartbreaking. my sister was one of those teachers let go, btw.


I like how it's always the union fault that the tax base collapsed, or that the politicians and school board so badly mismanage the resources they do have.
"I'm in a bar with the games sound turned off and that Cespedes home run still sounded like inevitability."

-swish

Wolfgang622
Plays the Game the Right Way
Plays the Game the Right Way
 
Posts: 28653
Joined: Sat Jan 06, 2007 23:11:51
Location: Baseball Heaven

Re: hardcore BATTLESHIP... the POLITICS thread

Postby Wolfgang622 » Fri Oct 26, 2012 23:16:33

mozartpc27 wrote:Because Pennsylvania schools by rule can't fire teachers unless a school is closed or a program is shut down...


Also, this is blatantly false.
"I'm in a bar with the games sound turned off and that Cespedes home run still sounded like inevitability."

-swish

Wolfgang622
Plays the Game the Right Way
Plays the Game the Right Way
 
Posts: 28653
Joined: Sat Jan 06, 2007 23:11:51
Location: Baseball Heaven

Re: hardcore BATTLESHIP... the POLITICS thread

Postby jerseyhoya » Fri Oct 26, 2012 23:48:39

RCP R+0.9
TPM R+1.0
Pollster R+0.3

Nate O+1.7

Makes a big point about how 2 point leads tend to hold up (re: Ohio) as his model is 2%+ off from all the big national polling aggregators.

jerseyhoya
BSG MVP
BSG MVP
 
Posts: 97408
Joined: Fri Sep 07, 2007 21:56:17

Re: hardcore BATTLESHIP... the POLITICS thread

Postby traderdave » Fri Oct 26, 2012 23:57:48

Sadly, my cousin's gf found out about getting fired; in the middle of a school year no less. She was in the Media area, I think. Sorry to hear about your sister, Pacino.

traderdave
Dropped Anchor
Dropped Anchor
 
Posts: 8451
Joined: Thu Dec 28, 2006 18:44:01
Location: Here


Re: hardcore BATTLESHIP... the POLITICS thread

Postby jerseyhoya » Sat Oct 27, 2012 00:33:56

Bucks+Chester+Delaware+Montgomery was 53.5-46.5 in 2004 and 57.9-42.1 in 2008 in two party vote share. It'll be interesting to see how that comes in this time. GWB almost won Bucks in 2004, wonder if Romney can win it. Romney really should run better in the burbs than any GOP candidate in a couple of decades.

jerseyhoya
BSG MVP
BSG MVP
 
Posts: 97408
Joined: Fri Sep 07, 2007 21:56:17

Re: hardcore BATTLESHIP... the POLITICS thread

Postby swishnicholson » Sat Oct 27, 2012 00:54:52

The New Yorker provides what is , to my mind, a balanced and thoughtful argument for the reelection of Obama, that almost entirely echoes my sentiments. This makes me guilty of the laziest type of groupthink, I'm sure, but hey, if it saves me the time and effort of having to articulate my thoughts in my own way I'm all for it.
"No woman can call herself free who does not control her own body."

swishnicholson
BSG MVP
BSG MVP
 
Posts: 39187
Joined: Fri Dec 29, 2006 22:56:15
Location: First I was like....And then I was like...

Re: hardcore BATTLESHIP... the POLITICS thread

Postby Stay_Disappointed » Sat Oct 27, 2012 01:40:27

swishnicholson wrote:The New Yorker provides what is , to my mind, a balanced and thoughtful argument for the reelection of Obama, that almost entirely echoes my sentiments. This makes me guilty of the laziest type of groupthink, I'm sure, but hey, if it saves me the time and effort of having to articulate my thoughts in my own way I'm all for it.


unfortunately you are forgetting he is a lazy socialist with no plan for his 2nd term? Big time tax and spender? Muslim activist?
I would rather see you lose than win myself

Stay_Disappointed
BSG MVP
BSG MVP
 
Posts: 15051
Joined: Thu Jan 04, 2007 15:44:46
Location: down in the park

Re: hardcore BATTLESHIP... the POLITICS thread

Postby SK790 » Sat Oct 27, 2012 02:40:21

This article on how Nate Silver is in the tank for Obama and how he sounds like an effeminate man made me laugh:

http://www.examiner.com/article/the-far ... b_articles
I like teh waether

SK790
Plays the Game the Right Way
Plays the Game the Right Way
 
Posts: 33040
Joined: Thu Dec 28, 2006 23:12:01
Location: time is money; money is power; power is pizza; pizza is knowledge

PreviousNext