hardcore BATTLESHIP... the POLITICS thread

by **pacino** » Fri Oct 26, 2012 16:06:45

Voted Kerry then Obama then Obama. I'm such a slut.

Website · by **Wolfgang622** » Fri Oct 26, 2012 16:07:31

jerseyhoya wrote:
Doll Is Mine wrote:My first time was with Bill Clinton.

You're at least 34 years old? Really?

I am

What makes it worse is that it was Bob Dole :!:

by **Grotewold** » Fri Oct 26, 2012 16:07:46

Voted Nader for a little co-ed tail

All I got was a Nation subscription

Website · by **Wolfgang622** » Fri Oct 26, 2012 16:08:16

Grotewold wrote:Voted Nader for a little coed tail

All I got was a Nation subscription

ROFLOL

by **RichmondPhilsFan** » Fri Oct 26, 2012 16:13:04

Good lord, the state polls are awful. PPP has Obama actually increasing his lead in VA since the first debate, whereas Fox News has Romney picking up 9 points.

I'm getting to the point where I'm just going to stop paying attention until a couple of days before Election Day. If you have a true dogfight, then MOE makes the state polls essentially meaningless, especially with an absence of cell phone based households.

And not that I'm looking to get a bunch of pollsters calling me, but how have I not gotten a single call since June? I live in VA. My wife and I are middle to upper-middle class white professionals with a young child living in a moderately conservative (for VA) suburban county. Leaving out the part where we're both state employees, we should be Mitt Romney's wet dream to include in his poll numbers.

by **td11** » Fri Oct 26, 2012 16:14:37

Grotewold wrote:Voted Nader for a little co-ed tail

All I got was a Nation subscription

post of the thread

by **jerseyhoya** » Fri Oct 26, 2012 16:16:48

RichmondPhilsFan wrote:And not that I'm looking to get a bunch of pollsters calling me, but how have I not gotten a single call since June? I live in VA. My wife and I are middle to upper-middle class white professionals with a young child living in a moderately conservative (for VA) suburban county. Leaving out the part where we're both state employees, we should be Mitt Romney's wet dream to include in his poll numbers.

8 million people live in Virginia, you need 800 people in a poll.

by **td11** » Fri Oct 26, 2012 16:17:53

are they calling the same 800 though? there have been tons of polls presumably

by **RichmondPhilsFan** » Fri Oct 26, 2012 16:27:35

jerseyhoya wrote:
RichmondPhilsFan wrote:And not that I'm looking to get a bunch of pollsters calling me, but how have I not gotten a single call since June? I live in VA. My wife and I are middle to upper-middle class white professionals with a young child living in a moderately conservative (for VA) suburban county. Leaving out the part where we're both state employees, we should be Mitt Romney's wet dream to include in his poll numbers.

8 million people live in Virginia, you need 800 people in a poll.

I realize that, so don't be a smartass. But there's also been something like 6 dozen polls in VA alone over the past four months and most of them end up exceeding that minimum number by a decent amount, plus the hangups and no answers. I was mildly surprised that I hadn't gotten a call yet. And given the deliberate fudging of the "random" sample taken by one side or the other, I'm even more surprised that a conservative leaning group hadn't called me yet.

But mostly I'm laughing at the ridiculous spread on some of the polls and the attempts to base any conclusions off of them. I mean, for god's sake, on the same day PPP says that Obama is up 5 and Fox News says Romney is up 2 in VA. Both have obvious partisan leans, so between that and the MOE, we probably have a dead heat. No shit.

by **jerseyhoya** » Fri Oct 26, 2012 16:29:08

td11 wrote:are they calling the same 800 though? there have been tons of polls presumably

Just back of the envelope math, if there's about a 9% response rate, you'd need to make 9,000 calls to get an 800 person sample. ~8 million people live in VA, ~6 million 18+, ~5 million are registered voters. If there've been 100 polls conducted with 9000 calls made, you're what, somewhere between 15-20% to have gotten a call? Maybe 1 in 3 chances since there are two of you (which matters for pollsters who call cell phones or off RV lists as opposed to doing random digit dialing of landlines).

I think people who are surprised they haven't been called usually haven't thought about the math.

by **CalvinBall** » Fri Oct 26, 2012 16:38:55

My house gets called a lot. Four registered voters live here though.

by **Phan In Phlorida** » Fri Oct 26, 2012 16:41:53

As a registered "not affiliated", every phone poll I get from a live pollster is GOP-centric (most of the animated ones are too). I figured out awhile ago to say I'm voting for the R candidate (whether I am or not) so I don't have to listen to a slew of follow ups trying to convince me to switch. Voila... what would be a 10 minute phone poll suddenly transforms into 30 seconds or less. Granted, they are likely party/campaign polls... Ima skewing their numbers and I don't care.

by **jerseyhoya** » Fri Oct 26, 2012 16:45:09

Phan In Phlorida wrote:As a registered "not affiliated", every phone poll I get from a live pollster is GOP-centric (most of the animated ones are too). I figured out awhile ago to say I'm voting for the R candidate (whether I am or not) so I don't have to listen to a slew of follow ups trying to convince me to switch. Voila... what would be a 10 minute phone poll suddenly transforms into 30 seconds or less. Granted, they are likely party/campaign polls... Ima skewing their numbers and I don't care.

Those aren't polls then

by **Phan In Phlorida** » Fri Oct 26, 2012 17:12:00

jerseyhoya wrote:
Phan In Phlorida wrote:As a registered "not affiliated", every phone poll I get from a live pollster is GOP-centric (most of the animated ones are too). I figured out awhile ago to say I'm voting for the R candidate (whether I am or not) so I don't have to listen to a slew of follow ups trying to convince me to switch. Voila... what would be a 10 minute phone poll suddenly transforms into 30 seconds or less. Granted, they are likely party/campaign polls... Ima skewing their numbers and I don't care.

Those aren't polls then

Which is why I assume they are internal party/campaign "polls". So even ones that aren't, I still say I'm voting all "R" just in case they are. This is Florida. I live in a conservative county, in a very wealthy neighborhood. Aside from number padding, I don't know why a party/campaign would bother (they never ask for contributions et al). But hey, it's their money.

by **jerseyhoya** » Fri Oct 26, 2012 17:15:24

Phan In Phlorida wrote:
jerseyhoya wrote:
Phan In Phlorida wrote:As a registered "not affiliated", every phone poll I get from a live pollster is GOP-centric (most of the animated ones are too). I figured out awhile ago to say I'm voting for the R candidate (whether I am or not) so I don't have to listen to a slew of follow ups trying to convince me to switch. Voila... what would be a 10 minute phone poll suddenly transforms into 30 seconds or less. Granted, they are likely party/campaign polls... Ima skewing their numbers and I don't care.

Those aren't polls then

Which is why I assume they are internal party/campaign "polls". So even ones that aren't, I still say I'm voting all "R" just in case they are. This is Florida. I live in a conservative county, in a very wealthy neighborhood. Aside from number padding, I don't know why a party/campaign would bother (they never ask for contributions et al). But hey, it's their money.

It's not a 'poll'. Internal polling is done by calling centers that will identify themselves as calling from XYZ (sometimes tell you who they're calling on behalf of) and then will ask you a series of questions. Conduct a poll.

They could be campaign workers doing voter targeting. If you say you're going to vote Republican, all it means is you're going to get more reminder calls leading up to Election Day telling you to go vote.

by **Phan In Phlorida** » Fri Oct 26, 2012 17:34:05

jerseyhoya wrote:It's not a 'poll'. Internal polling is done by calling centers that will identify themselves as calling from XYZ (sometimes tell you who they're calling on behalf of) and then will ask you a series of questions. Conduct a poll.

The ones I get do identify themselves (although they never say if/who they're calling on behalf of). Like "Hello, this is Pollmasters, we are conducting a poll regarding this year's election..." (to paraphrase). Only got two or three this cycle, last one about three weeks ago.

by **jamiethekiller** » Fri Oct 26, 2012 18:09:26

wait, people are getting worked up over that obama ad. holy shit.

by **phdave** » Fri Oct 26, 2012 18:32:59

Nate cooked up a new batch of numbers.

by **phdave** » Fri Oct 26, 2012 18:40:56

@rupertmurdoch Romney looking better and better while Obama seems devoid of anything new. May try October surprise, bomb someplace! Remember Clinton?

by **CalvinBall** » Fri Oct 26, 2012 18:46:01

@fivethirtyeight: Obama's up 2-3 points in Ohio per all polling aggregates. Historically, that sort of advantage holds up a LOT with 10 days left.

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