jamiethekiller wrote:wait, people are getting worked up over that obama ad. holy shit.

The Nightman Cometh wrote:

The FiveThirtyEight forecast accounts for this property in its overall assessment of the Electoral College, and it is one reason why our forecast gives Mr. Romney slightly better Electoral College chances than other forecast models that might assume more independence in the state polling. However, we may be approaching the point where the state polls will have to be systematically biased toward Mr. Obama in order for Mr. Romney to have strong chances of prevailing on Election Day.

Apparently I am much more worried about the state polls having systematic bias (or just ineptness) than Mr. Silver is.

phdave wrote:Nate cooked up a new batch of numbers.

td11 wrote:

jamiethekiller wrote:wait, people are getting worked up over that obama ad. holy #$!&@.

http://2012.talkingpointsmemo.com/2012/ ... reagan.php

Swiggers wrote:JH -- I don't think I've seen you comment on the Senate race in NJ. Does Kyrillos have any kind of a shot at all?

jerseyhoya wrote:

phdave wrote:Nate cooked up a new batch of numbers.

If the election was held today, Obama has a 76.1% chance of winning the popular vote.

Yet the access of low-income Americans—those earning less than $20,000 in real 2009 dollars—to devices that are part of the “good life” has increased. [...]

Appliances? The percentage of low-income homes with air-conditioning equipment rose to 83.5% from 65.8%, with dishwashers to 30.8% from 17.6%, with a washing machine to 62.4% from 57.2%, and with a clothes dryer to 56.5% from 44.9%.

The percentage of low-income households with microwave ovens grew to 92.4% from 74.9% between 2001 and 2009. Fully 75.5% of low-income Americans now have a cell phone, and over a quarter of those have access to the Internet through their phones.

SUNUNU: You have to wonder whether that’s an endorsement based on issues or that he’s got a slightly different reason for President Obama.
MORGAN: What reason would that be?
SUNUNU: Well, I think that when you have somebody of your own race that you’re proud of being President of the United States — I applaud Colin for standing with him.

He was born in Cuba and is of Greek, Lebanese and Palestinian descent. A New York Times story from 1988 notes that Sununu “says he has received hundreds of telephone calls about his heritage.”

Sununu’s son, John E., who served as a senator from New Hampshire, spoke movingly about the “scrutiny” his father faced for being Arab-American. Sununu said at the American Task on Palestine Inaugural Gala in 2006:

In public life, my father recognized, as he began local politics, moved on to serve as governor, and then as Chief of Staff to the President of the United States, that as an Arab American, one of the very few Arab Americans, in public life, I think my father recognized that there would be a greater level of visibility, there would come greater public scrutiny. But that was simply part of the bargain, if you will, that if you wanted to make a difference, if you wanted to affect policy, you wanted to improve the lives of those that were represented, whether at the local or national level in politics, you had to take that scrutiny as it came and rise to the challenge. And I think it is fair to say, that despite my biases, that he was able to do that.

pacino wrote:also:

Kerry 2004 exit poll support: 88% black support
Obama in June, 2012: 87% black support

BROTHER JOHN KERRY

pacino wrote:domez-vous?

CalvinBall wrote:

jerseyhoya wrote:

phdave wrote:Nate cooked up a new batch of numbers.

If the election was held today, Obama has a 76.1% chance of winning the popular vote.

U mad bro?

jerseyhoya wrote:

pacino wrote:also:

Kerry 2004 exit poll support: 88% black support
Obama in June, 2012: 87% black support

BROTHER JOHN KERRY

Obama is going to get a lot higher than 88% of the black vote.

jerseyhoya wrote:

pacino wrote:also:

Kerry 2004 exit poll support: 88% black support
Obama in June, 2012: 87% black support

BROTHER JOHN KERRY

Obama is going to get a lot higher than 88% of the black vote.

Bucky wrote:

jerseyhoya wrote:

pacino wrote:also:

Kerry 2004 exit poll support: 88% black support
Obama in June, 2012: 87% black support

BROTHER JOHN KERRY

Obama is going to get a lot higher than 88% of the black vote.

What was the 2008 general?

Bucky wrote:

jerseyhoya wrote:

pacino wrote:also:

Kerry 2004 exit poll support: 88% black support
Obama in June, 2012: 87% black support

BROTHER JOHN KERRY

Obama is going to get a lot higher than 88% of the black vote.

What was the 2008 general?

CalvinBall wrote:

Bucky wrote:

jerseyhoya wrote:

pacino wrote:also:

Kerry 2004 exit poll support: 88% black support
Obama in June, 2012: 87% black support

BROTHER JOHN KERRY

Obama is going to get a lot higher than 88% of the black vote.

What was the 2008 general?

95 percent