hardcore BATTLESHIP... the POLITICS thread

Re: hardcore BATTLESHIP... the POLITICS thread

Postby CalvinBall » Wed Oct 24, 2012 17:03:50

pacino wrote:Did you tell them you're broke and the they proceeded to call you a victim?


he kept saying if i make over 100,000 a year. i told him i dont make that.

also said if i dont have health insurance, which i do, or if there arent specific coverages in it im going to get taxed even more. is that even true?

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Re: hardcore BATTLESHIP... the POLITICS thread

Postby dajafi » Wed Oct 24, 2012 17:23:43

I hit a nadir of pessimism about the election Monday night (and couldn't sleep as a result). Since then I've been feeling a bit better, and then I saw this and am, if not exactly confident, certainly off the ledge.

I visited Obama and Romney field offices in three swing states -- Ohio, Colorado and Virginia -- dropping in unannounced at random times to see what I could see. There were some consistent, and telling, differences.

Obama's office suite in Sterling was in an office park next to a dentist's office. The front window was plastered with Obama-Biden signs, the door was propped open, and the stink bugs that plague Virginia in the fall crawled over stacks of literature -- fliers for Senate candidate Tim Kaine, Obama bumper stickers -- piled on a table near the front reception desk. In rooms in front and back, volunteers made calls on cell phones, while in the interior, field staffers hunched over computers. One wall was covered with a sheet of paper where people had scrawled responses to the prompt, "I Support the President Because...", while another wall held a precinct-by-precinct list of neighborhood team leaders' email addresses.

Only about a mile down the road was the Republican office, a cavernous, unfinished space on the back side of a strip mall next to a Sleepy's mattress outlet. On one side of the room, under a Gadsden flag ("Don't tread on me") and a poster of Sarah Palin on a horse, two long tables of land-line telephones were arrayed. Most of the signs, literature, and buttons on display were for the local Republican congressman, Frank Wolf. A volunteer in a Wolf for Congress T-shirt was directing traffic, sort of -- no one really seemed to be in charge and there were no paid staff present, though there were several elderly volunteers wandering in and out. The man in the T-shirt allowed me to survey the room but not walk around, and was unable to refer me to anyone from the Romney campaign or coordinated party effort.

These basic characteristics were repeated in all the offices I visited: The Obama offices were devoted almost entirely to the president's reelection; the Republican offices were devoted almost entirely to local candidates, with little presence for Romney.

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Re: hardcore BATTLESHIP... the POLITICS thread

Postby Swiggers » Wed Oct 24, 2012 17:25:55

The Nightman Cometh wrote:Don't know why betting markets have Obama around 58% to win. At best it's probably 50/50 and by next week Romney might be the favorite if the state polls keep inching towards him.


Every time you post something like this, you sound afraid. Which is odd because most of them are unsupported by evidence.
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Re: hardcore BATTLESHIP... the POLITICS thread

Postby CalvinBall » Wed Oct 24, 2012 17:33:24

the president has more field offices in ohio than romney has in oh, fl, and va combined. that is awesome.

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Re: hardcore BATTLESHIP... the POLITICS thread

Postby phdave » Wed Oct 24, 2012 17:38:04

dajafi wrote:I hit a nadir of pessimism about the election Monday night (and couldn't sleep as a result).


Really? I had the opposite feeling after the debate. I've been checking polls compulsively since Tuesday morning waiting for them to start breaking away from Romney.
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Re: hardcore BATTLESHIP... the POLITICS thread

Postby TenuredVulture » Wed Oct 24, 2012 17:39:31

I wonder if any of the independent campaign groups are dedicating any money to GOTV, or is that still primarily a party function? It seems likely that both campaigns reached diminishing returns on advertising a long time ago. I suspect that you might also get to a point where additional advertising actually has the opposite of its intended effect. For instance, when Corzine ran for Senate in 1998 he won, but by a much smaller margin than had been predicted--did spending all that money on ads in the last weeks of the campaign actually diminish support?
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Re: hardcore BATTLESHIP... the POLITICS thread

Postby CalvinBall » Wed Oct 24, 2012 17:46:58

more good polls for obama in nevada today. +4 in ppp and +2 in rasmussen.

good in ohio too. +5, +3, tie.

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Re: hardcore BATTLESHIP... the POLITICS thread

Postby drsmooth » Wed Oct 24, 2012 17:54:24

Guiliani on Matthews show just now, agreeing with Matthews that candidate Akin (& Mourdock? not clear) is "crazy" for his abortion remarks
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Re: hardcore BATTLESHIP... the POLITICS thread

Postby dajafi » Wed Oct 24, 2012 18:49:19

CalvinBall wrote:more good polls for obama in nevada today. +4 in ppp and +2 in rasmussen.

good in ohio too. +5, +3, tie.


I think Nevada is very likely to go for the president. Harry Reid is basically a postmodern machine boss, and he loathes Romney.

I also think North Carolina is pretty much a lock for Romney. Obama's go there is probably to spend just enough to keep the other side from shifting serious resources elsewhere.

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Re: hardcore BATTLESHIP... the POLITICS thread

Postby td11 » Wed Oct 24, 2012 19:01:11

But that story doesn't hold up well either. The emails in question contained nothing more than "raw" intelligence, uncorroborated and unverified, that often flows in after an event. Intelligence officials typically don't deliver their assessments until they have "finished" reports based on multiple sources, and corroborated evidence, and Obama officials such as Rice certainly would not have been out in front of the TV cameras citing raw intelligence. And as the government's most senior officials say, the Benghazi case has taken them a long time to finish. "People forget that a Palestinian group was the first to claim credit for 9/11," said the intelligence official. "There was no message from the field in those first hectic days that would have eliminated questions or proven who was behind the attack."

Indeed, as White House spokesman Jay Carney told reporters, all that Wednesday's stories reported was "an open-source, unclassified email about a posting on a Facebook site. I would also note I think that within a few hours, that organization itself [Ansar al-Sharia] claimed that it had not been responsible." Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, in separate remarks on Wednesday, also said that "posting something on Facebook is not in and of itself evidence, and I think it just underscores how fluid the reporting was at the time and continued for some time to be."

Even now, intelligence officials say, the full story is not known. It is not even clear that the video-inspired protests in Cairo were unrelated to the attack in Benghazi, because some of the extremists who attacked Stevens and his colleagues may have been provoked by watching the demonstrations on TV. Officials say they are still compiling a list of suspects.

"The bulk of available information still supports the early assessment that extremists --many with ties to Ansar al-Sharia, AQIM [Al Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb], or other groups -- didn't pre-plan the attack days or weeks in advance, but launched their assault opportunistically after they learned about the violence at the U.S. Embassy in Cairo," the intelligence official said.


http://m.theatlantic.com/politics/archi ... ry/264081/
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Re: hardcore BATTLESHIP... the POLITICS thread

Postby Grotewold » Wed Oct 24, 2012 19:28:46

philliesphhan wrote:
Aziz Ansari ‏@azizansari

"Sorry officer, no ticket for me, if I'm over the speed limit, that's something God intended. Peace."


:lol:

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Re: hardcore BATTLESHIP... the POLITICS thread

Postby traderdave » Wed Oct 24, 2012 20:02:37

CalvinBall wrote:
pacino wrote:Did you tell them you're broke and the they proceeded to call you a victim?


he kept saying if i make over 100,000 a year. i told him i dont make that.

also said if i dont have health insurance, which i do, or if there arent specific coverages in it im going to get taxed even more. is that even true?


You should have told him you have diabetes or something and then asked him if that is covered under Romney's revised health care plan. I have to say that I have never been surveyed by a political organization ever. I feel so left out. :cry:

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Re: hardcore BATTLESHIP... the POLITICS thread

Postby JFLNYC » Wed Oct 24, 2012 20:04:58

I can find no poll which ended 10/18 or after in which Romney is leading in Ohio.

Actually, make that 10/13 or after.
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Re: hardcore BATTLESHIP... the POLITICS thread

Postby Werthless » Wed Oct 24, 2012 20:07:35

td11 wrote:
CalvinBall wrote:trivial as gay marriage


yeah i'm done here

Compared to death... yah.

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Re: hardcore BATTLESHIP... the POLITICS thread

Postby Werthless » Wed Oct 24, 2012 20:22:30

RichmondPhilsFan wrote:
Werthless wrote:
Bucky wrote:I think we're sort of at the root of the philosophical differences. People who rely on religious beliefs to set their values feel that their beliefs intrinsically can't be bigoted because those are the beliefs of a widely practiced theology.

I'm definitely reconsidering my thinking... I'll have to give it more thought. I'm not a lawyer, but there are certain protected classes on which a government/employer/etc cant discriminate. The law probably needs to catch up, but there's a reason that certain characteristics are not protected classes.

Maybe because I'm not gay and I can get married, but I view marriage as less of a human rights issue than something like the death penalty or abortion. And on these issues, I think many would disagree with calling your opponent bigots by virtue of their position. And if you (collectively) wouldn't call someone a bigot for supporting certain kinds of murder, then how can you call someone a bigot for something as trivial as gay marriage? Is someone who supports the death penalty a bigot who wants to play God with people's lives? Is a person a bigot who won't protect the life of fetuses 14 weeks old? I think it's a huge stretch, and cheapens the word for people who truly deserve to be called it.

(Sorry for the jarbled post)

Come on, man, that's not even close to the definition of bigotry. There's no way that anyone can intelligently respond to that because it's simply nonsense. ALL PEOPLE who commit capital murder are eligible for the death penalty (whether the application of the death penalty is affected by race is a valid and entirely separate issue). ALL PEOPLE were 14-week-old fetuses at some point in their life.

The government is refusing to protect the lives of certain people that need protecting. I dont understand how people can think that one's right to have a state-sponsored marriage ceremony -- with the accompanying tax benefits/penalties, visitation rights, and insurance benefits -- is more important than the rights of others to simply live. ALL PEOPLE were 14-week old fetuses, but the government allowed some of them to be killed. The government kills people every year, many times for crimes they didnt commit. And they are almost all minorities(!). Is that not a biased policy? This tangent isn't really about bigotry, yes, but my point is that the government makes lots and lots of decisions that adversely affect certain groups of people over others. And as JFLNCSFKDHG pointed out, we'd probably be better off on the whole if the government wasn't getting involved in many of these decisions.

On a lighter note:
Cole Sear: I see bigoted people.
Malcolm Crowe: In your dreams?
[Cole shakes his head no]
Malcolm Crowe: While you're awake?
[Cole nods]
Malcolm Crowe: Bigoted people like, in government? In office?
Cole Sear: Walking around like regular people. They don't see each other. They only see what they want to see. They don't know they're bigots.
Malcolm Crowe: How often do you see them?
Cole Sear: All the time. They're everywhere.

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Re: hardcore BATTLESHIP... the POLITICS thread

Postby Youseff » Wed Oct 24, 2012 20:51:43

We were all a one week old ovum too. But I agree with you, being anti civil-rights is bigotry and you are pro-life/anti-abortion.
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Re: hardcore BATTLESHIP... the POLITICS thread

Postby Doll Is Mine » Wed Oct 24, 2012 21:16:05

Thank you Richard Mourdock.

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Re: hardcore BATTLESHIP... the POLITICS thread

Postby drsmooth » Wed Oct 24, 2012 21:50:03

JFLNYC wrote:I can find no poll which ended 10/18 or after in which Romney is leading in Ohio.

Actually, make that 10/13 or after.


you have no feel for momentum
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Re: hardcore BATTLESHIP... the POLITICS thread

Postby Swiggers » Wed Oct 24, 2012 22:29:45

TenuredVulture wrote:I wonder if any of the independent campaign groups are dedicating any money to GOTV, or is that still primarily a party function? It seems likely that both campaigns reached diminishing returns on advertising a long time ago. I suspect that you might also get to a point where additional advertising actually has the opposite of its intended effect. For instance, when Corzine ran for Senate in 1998 he won, but by a much smaller margin than had been predicted--did spending all that money on ads in the last weeks of the campaign actually diminish support?


Corzine had a ridiculously oversaturated '98 campaign from the start, when he spent millions upon millions in the Democratic primary to remind NJers how much they hated Jim Florio. Uh, thanks, we already knew that. At that point, I decided he was fiscally insane and I would never vote for him.
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Re: hardcore BATTLESHIP... the POLITICS thread

Postby Wolfgang622 » Wed Oct 24, 2012 22:49:58

CalvinBall wrote:the president has more field offices in ohio than romney has in oh, fl, and va combined. that is awesome.


I wonder how much of this has to do with who their respective bases are. As in, you don't need a whole lot of field offices to get old white middle-to-upper class people to vote. They love voting, and they are sure that their votes count/are important.

If your core demographics are people who traditionally feel as if they are frozen out of the process (the poor), that even if they do vote that they will still somehow get screwed or have their votes discounted (minorities), or that no one listens to them (the young), you need more field offices to convince them that they really should take the time to bother, that it really does matter.
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