jerseyhoya wrote:It means 9% more respondents are self identifying Democrats than Republicans (34-25-36). Three possible explanations are Democrats are going to turn out in much higher numbers than Republicans, more members of both parties (but disproportionately Republicans) are now identifying as independents rather than members of parties (that 36% number his pretty high), or it's a #$!&@ sample. The first two explanations aren't impossible, but it's not what the other polls are finding.
In 2004 the partisan breakdown was even, in 2008 Dems were +7. So it's happened before. It's just this doesn't much feel like 2008.
Yeah, I think I heard Steve Schmidt late last week explaining that at about this point in the cycle the various pollster start weighting the results to account for expected turnout. Also, in response to a post maybe four pages ago (Werthless, perhaps) I am voting Obama but state without hesitation that the Administration royally fucked up in Libya.