All things good in MODERATION: Politics Thread

Re: All things good in MODERATION: Politics Thread

Postby Wheels Tupay » Mon Oct 08, 2012 15:44:10

Still can't believe Romney's comments about Russia.
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Re: All things good in MODERATION: Politics Thread

Postby td11 » Mon Oct 08, 2012 15:59:15

jerseyhoya wrote:
td11 wrote:also, gallup 7-day tracking already has it back to 50-45 obama

They still haven't switched to a likely voter screen


right, but the gallup link you posted this morning also had registered voters, not likely.
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Re: All things good in MODERATION: Politics Thread

Postby swishnicholson » Mon Oct 08, 2012 16:04:27

TenuredVulture wrote:
swishnicholson wrote:
TenuredVulture wrote:
swishnicholson wrote:I know it's campaign rhetoric, but portraying anything in Libya as a simple black and white situation is either meretricious or stupid. And Mitt Romney is not stupid.


Khaddafi spent a lot of money on getting his reputation polished. He even bought his son Saif a PhD from a respected British institution, and got people convinced he was a reformer. While apparently it wasn't enough to save his own dictatorship, it apparently has provided fodder for anti-democrats among us.


I'm feeling stupid, since I don't see how this relates to my comment. Maybe I need to clarify my own statement? It was in regard to post-Khaddafi Libya and the many factions with various and often hidden intents that are seeking to fill the power vacuum.

See that Romney is now all in for the Syrian rebels too, who aren't exactly Islamist free either. Simple sells, I guess.


Many on the right have criticized Obama's support of the rebels in Libya. Some of this criticism seems based on pontificating by certain academics about how the Khaddafis really are (were) poised to lead Libya towards democracy, but they had to be careful because of all the Islamists there.

http://www.thenation.com/blog/159046/pr ... relations#

Given that Libya appears to be doing well under extremely challenging circumstances, I'd say Obama's policy there has been rather successful. It's curious that in all this, no one seems to remember Lockerbie either.


Ah, I see. Wasn't sure if you were saying that I had bought into the Khaddafi turd-polishing and finding justification for the somewhat hesitant support of the rebels that Obama had eventually offered, the tentativeness of which the right had ostensibly also found reason to criticize. Syria and Egypt are similar matters in that clearly there are/were bad guys whose removal you would love to see, but identifying who and identifying the level of support the US wants to give to possible successors is extremely problematic. I generally feel the administration has handled these matters in the best way possible, while understanding that best possible outcomes fall short of what one might dream (and getting to this realization BEFORE the cost in lives money etc. of a situation like Iraq.)
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Re: All things good in MODERATION: Politics Thread

Postby CalvinBall » Mon Oct 08, 2012 16:17:55

pew has romney up 4.

anyone's guess at this point. i really doubt one good debate would swing the election 7-8 points.

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Re: All things good in MODERATION: Politics Thread

Postby Phan In Phlorida » Mon Oct 08, 2012 16:41:24

▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬ஜ۩۞۩ஜ▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬

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Re: All things good in MODERATION: Politics Thread

Postby dajafi » Mon Oct 08, 2012 16:51:44

Wheels Tupay wrote:
Roger Dorn wrote:
dajafi wrote:There's a reason they call them "confidence men." Romney was legitimately good in the debate last week because he can speak with confidence on the economy (and Obama missed, I dunno, maybe two dozen chances to knock him out of his comfort zone).

But he doesn't know jack about foreign policy, and he's got people telling him contradictory things; he seemingly can't decide if he wants to emulate the disastrous (but assertive!) first term of Bush 43 or his more competent (but quiet) second term.

Obama, on the other hand, is pretty much in the mainstream of the Cold War presidents with respect to foreign policy. Build coalitions, use force when you have to, utilize soft power, don't fetishize the military but don't disrespect it. Understand the capacities and limitations of projected power in all its manifestations.

I don't think it's fully appreciated how often even presidents who are generally good on foreign policy screw up:

--Truman arguably enabled the North Korean attack in 1950 after his secretary of state characterized the Korean peninsula as a non-priority for U.S. defense
--Ike nearly started a nuclear war over two worthless islands in dispute between China and Taiwan
--JFK okayed the Bay of Pigs and missed the run-up to the Cuban Missile Crisis
--Nixon did the Cambodian incursion and missed the start of the Yom Kippur War
--Ford botched the evacuation of Saigon
--Carter missed the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan and the Iranian Revolution
--Reagan saw 280 U.S. marines blown up in Beirut and immediately "cut and ran"

You might be saying that it's ridiculous to blame some/most/all those things on the presidents who were in when they happened. That's the point! Same with Romney's criticisms of Obama on foreign policy. All they can do is try to get the big stuff right and hire well.

Bush 41 was probably the best at this in my lifetime. Obama is probably the second best. Romney looks more like Bush 43, who was the worst, though my read of the guy is that he'd recognize his mistakes and correct more quickly than W. did. Unfortunately, the mistakes could be of sufficient magnitude (shooting war with Iran, trade war with China) that he'd only need to make them once to screw things up for a long time.


Reagan's decision to "cut and run" after the barracks attack in Lebanon was probably the best foreign policy decision by a President in the last few decades. We will never be able to understand the irrationality of Middle Eastern politics. Our foreign policy is the primary reason people are motivated to attach explosives to themselves and blow themselves the #$!&@ up.

They "hate us for our freedom" is the most retarded rhetoric of all time. They hate us because we #$!&@ with them constantly. Obama is better than Bush, but his constant use of drone attacks on soveriegn nations is pretty reprehensible as well.



Yes, times a billion. Who knew people would get pissed when you are constantly dropping bombs on their heads? And then we have people over here scratching their heads wondering why they hate us. Yes, it is clearly our (ever shrinking) "freedom" that is the problem.


In case it wasn't clear, I agree Reagan was prudent to leave Lebanon after that attack. It's unfortunate that we're now so insecure (and partisan politics has so come to overshadow the national interest) that a president of either party, facing the same choice today, would quadruple down (notwithstanding that we could afford the occasional really fucking stupid geopolitical move back then, and now can't).

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Re: All things good in MODERATION: Politics Thread

Postby traderdave » Mon Oct 08, 2012 17:36:25

CalvinBall wrote:pew has romney up 4.

anyone's guess at this point. i really doubt one good debate would swing the election 7-8 points.


Did you check some of the underlying data on that poll? It truly boggles the mind. Romney moved +5 as "honest and truthful" based on a debate where he changed positions on multiple issues on live television? Ditto +3 on "takes consistent positions on the issues". On the question "which candidate has new ideas", 47% said Romney while 40% said Obama. This actually makes perfect sense considering most of Romney's policy positions at the debate were literally new ideas. If only Obama were awake enough to call him on it while it was happening.

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Re: All things good in MODERATION: Politics Thread

Postby td11 » Mon Oct 08, 2012 17:37:43

CalvinBall wrote:pew has romney up 4.

anyone's guess at this point. i really doubt one good debate would swing the election 7-8 points.


last month pew had obama +18 with women and this month has him tied with romney
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Re: All things good in MODERATION: Politics Thread

Postby jerseyhoya » Mon Oct 08, 2012 17:52:53

You should write the people who unskewed the polls for the conservatives who didn't like the polls last month to see if they'll put together something for you.

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Re: All things good in MODERATION: Politics Thread

Postby jerseyhoya » Mon Oct 08, 2012 18:00:08

Actually I do think Pew might be the worst of the national pollsters we get regular info from just because their results seem more volatile. I don't know if it's something to do with how they define likely voters or what. Their poll that had Obama up 8 last week was ridiculous on its face, and this one seems tough to buy as well.

It's another nice piece of evidence for the 'we're doing it' pile though.

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Re: All things good in MODERATION: Politics Thread

Postby Monkeyboy » Mon Oct 08, 2012 18:06:55

Just out of curiosity, JH, how can you support someone who so clearly lied his ass off this last debate? How do you know what his policies really are and whether or not you support them? And certainly, how can you trust him? The fact that he lied his ass off while changing many/most of his major positions would make me really not want to vote for the guy. I know I wouldn't vote for a dem that was so transparently full of crap. I'd stay home.
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Re: All things good in MODERATION: Politics Thread

Postby pacino » Mon Oct 08, 2012 18:15:21

BECAUSE WE'RE DOING 'IT'. DON'T MATTER HOW.

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Re: All things good in MODERATION: Politics Thread

Postby jerseyhoya » Mon Oct 08, 2012 18:29:10

Monkeyboy wrote:Just out of curiosity, JH, how can you support someone who so clearly lied his ass off this last debate? How do you know what his policies really are and whether or not you support them? And certainly, how can you trust him? The fact that he lied his ass off while changing many/most of his major positions would make me really not want to vote for the guy. I know I wouldn't vote for a dem that was so transparently full of crap. I'd stay home.

Here's an AP look at various inaccurate claims made by Romney and Obama in the debate. Neither were without sin, and both seemed to get about the same number of things wrong, although I think Obama was more misleading about bigger things.

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Re: All things good in MODERATION: Politics Thread

Postby TenuredVulture » Mon Oct 08, 2012 18:32:30

jerseyhoya wrote:Actually I do think Pew might be the worst of the national pollsters we get regular info from just because their results seem more volatile. I don't know if it's something to do with how they define likely voters or what. Their poll that had Obama up 8 last week was ridiculous on its face, and this one seems tough to buy as well.

It's another nice piece of evidence for the 'we're doing it' pile though.


Outside of their election stuff, Pew does excellent work, and I think Kohut is pretty good. It may be that their election stuff is just to keep the Pew name in the news and isn't a real priority. I know Quinnipiac has a poll pretty much to raise the profile of the university.
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Re: All things good in MODERATION: Politics Thread

Postby JFLNYC » Mon Oct 08, 2012 19:18:46

RCP average down to +0.5 for Obama. The debate has made a significant difference in popular vote polls. But, as TNC pointed out, Romney has so few paths via the electoral college, while Obama has many.
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Re: All things good in MODERATION: Politics Thread

Postby dajafi » Mon Oct 08, 2012 19:38:33

Monkeyboy wrote:Just out of curiosity, JH, how can you support someone who so clearly lied his ass off this last debate? How do you know what his policies really are and whether or not you support them? And certainly, how can you trust him? The fact that he lied his ass off while changing many/most of his major positions would make me really not want to vote for the guy. I know I wouldn't vote for a dem that was so transparently full of crap. I'd stay home.


jh is more than capable of speaking for himself, but since I think this gets to a larger interesting question about why we discuss politics here, why we sometimes hate it, and why we often can't help it, I'm going to share two thoughts.

1) This is a pointless question that's only going to upset you. Plus you know the answer. (Hint: why are you a Phillies fan?)

2) In that last-week Romney sounded clearly saner than the Tea Party hostage in evidence for the last two years, and jh is in the more realistic half--hell, probably tenth, maybe hundredth--of the Republican Party, he'd presumably be thrilled if Romney really did govern as that guy. Plus, to anticipate jh, it's not like Romney went in as Bachmann and came out as Kucinich. More like he went in as Dubya and then showed up as a less tongue-tied 41.

To be clear, I myself don't think he would govern as a pragmatist, because to the modern deranged right pragmatism is apostasy. I've read a lot about Romney the last month or so in particular (and I guess the last six years or so in general--I would particularly recommend Nick Lemann's long New Yorker profile and the Benjamin Wallace-Wells piece in New York magazine about Romney's experiences as Mormon stake president in Boston), and the thru-line is the guy's utter willingness to say and do what he must to win. As we saw last week, he's really good at this... which I have to admit isn't a bad trait in a leader.

I think if he has a default setting with respect to policy, it's probably more like the guy from the debate and his MA governorship. But he won't fight within his own crazy-ass party to be that guy. And they're so desperate for victory that they won't kick at his pretending to be that guy in order to win.

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Re: All things good in MODERATION: Politics Thread

Postby ReadingPhilly » Mon Oct 08, 2012 19:53:45

pac, what are your thoughts on spencer's term so far? seems like a total cluster fuck.

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Re: All things good in MODERATION: Politics Thread

Postby gr » Mon Oct 08, 2012 20:54:04

If you guys only knew. The inside of Pew is more stiff and political than the US Chamber could ever hope to be. The research folks have their own compound separate from the Center on the States and the main Trusts staff. The research folks are kind of a mystery. Lord knows what goes on around the polling operation. I sure don't.
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Re: All things good in MODERATION: Politics Thread

Postby gr » Mon Oct 08, 2012 21:02:09

dajafi wrote:
Monkeyboy wrote:Just out of curiosity, JH, how can you support someone who so clearly lied his ass off this last debate? How do you know what his policies really are and whether or not you support them? And certainly, how can you trust him? The fact that he lied his ass off while changing many/most of his major positions would make me really not want to vote for the guy. I know I wouldn't vote for a dem that was so transparently full of crap. I'd stay home.


I think if he has a default setting with respect to policy, it's probably more like the guy from the debate and his MA governorship. But he won't fight within his own crazy-ass party to be that guy. And they're so desperate for victory that they won't kick at his pretending to be that guy in order to win.


I think this is an important point to remember, especially in light of 2008 and plenty of hungry change-enthusiasts. Obama has had just as much trouble with his own party as he's had with the Rs (I might be oversimplifying that, but the first 2 years in particular). What it takes to get elected is different than what it takes to govern effectively. It's true that you don't want someone who can't run an effective campaign (McCain, Kerry etc), but doing so isn't a predictor of success.
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Re: All things good in MODERATION: Politics Thread

Postby td11 » Mon Oct 08, 2012 21:04:18

[Reveal] Spoiler:
Image


jh u welcome
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