watching the correspondents' dinner. obama is baller

random thought...michelle obama, by far the hottest first lady ever? her presence at the dinner is AMAZZZZING. lucky prez

She looked rell good.

Obama's timing and delivery is brilliant. Better than kimmel's.

"cuz pitbull is delicious"

right??? he seems so natural. it's crazy. BUT A TELEPROMPTER

no matter how centrist he ends up being, i still love him

More interesting than the Republican punditry rather bizarre criticism of Obama's slow jam (which sounded really effective to me but whatever) is the way in which they are all apparently singing from the same hymnal on this. Now, I don't mean to go all conspiratorial, and I suppose they don't actually need written memos or anything with detailed instructions to figure out what to do, but can't we just drop the pretense that Fox News and other pundits are anything other than mouthpieces for the Republican establishment and the Romney campaign? I mean, they did the same thing to poor Ron Paul and Santorum and Caine et al.

TenuredVulture wrote:... I don't mean to go all conspiratorial, and I suppose they don't actually need written memos or anything with detailed instructions to figure out what to do....

in the context of recaps of joke highlights from the correspondents' dinner, the phrase "dog whistle" has never been so apt

jerseyhoya wrote:I would prefer the airing of the laundry to occur in public as other people have weighed in on this along the way

Anything happen with this?

No

CalvinBall wrote:

jerseyhoya wrote:I would prefer the airing of the laundry to occur in public as other people have weighed in on this along the way

Anything happen with this?

lethal probably reread the thread.

Werthless wrote:

CalvinBall wrote:

jerseyhoya wrote:I would prefer the airing of the laundry to occur in public as other people have weighed in on this along the way

Anything happen with this?

lethal probably reread the thread.

a punishment befitting the "crime"

dajafi wrote:Similarly, to pac's point, the Republicans aren't primarily losing by 15 points with women because of some stupid fucking remarks made on camera. It's because they want to stick things in their hoo-hahs to punish sluttery and make sure they continue to be paid less.

Interestingly (or not), Romney is actually edging out Obama among married women. And he's getting destroyed among single women (something like 65-30). I meant to post this a few days ago when I read it.

Married women are typically older. Older people are generally more conservative.

Not that interesting, but it was surprising until I thought about it for two seconds.

I think if you were running a regression with DV of Obama vote share and the independent variables of married/not married and age, marriage will pack more of an explanatory punch. Might be eating up other stuff (income, religion), but I'd put a few bucks on marriage doing more of the work than age or at least as much.

quick, someone run a regression analysis.

I'll run a couple when I'm in the computer lab this afternoon on the 2008 ANES. If anyone knows of polls with publicly available individual level respondent data from this cycle, that would be better as it gets at the actual point being made and the 2008 ANES wasn't a representative sample because they oversampled blacks and Hispanics.

The Nightman Cometh wrote:Married women are typically older. Older people are generally more conservative.

Not that interesting, but it was surprising until I thought about it for two seconds.

Also probably a higher percentage of religious women vs. non-religious women, which I'd expect to lean more to the right, especially among whites.

jerseyhoya wrote:I'll run a couple when I'm in the computer lab this afternoon on the 2008 ANES. If anyone knows of polls with publicly available individual level respondent data from this cycle, that would be better as it gets at the actual point being made and the 2008 ANES wasn't a representative sample because they oversampled blacks and Hispanics.

Actually, the bigger problem with using the 2008 data set is that the question is what's going on in 2012. It wouldn't shock me if all things being equal, Palin didn't give McCain a boost among married women that Romney won't get.

In the meantime, while JH is firing up SPSS, here's a pretty quick account from gallup. There's a ton of literature that shows what was once called the gender gap is better understood as a marriage gap. Hit google scholar for some relevant citations.

http://www.gallup.com/poll/107506/typic ... -vote.aspx

More interesting, this is yet another demographic trend that favors the Democrats long term as the percentage of married people is in decline overall.

That's a hell of a thing

I didn't follow through on my threat to figure that out regressionly.

They report you decide.

jerseyhoya wrote:[youtube]smith: politics is weird and creepy[/youtube]

That's a hell of a thing

I didn't follow through on my threat to figure that out regressionly.

shep's an expert on loose reality

Even if you could vote for Joe the (unlicensed) Plumber, you should not. Apparently he went to the gates of the White House and sought (I am not sure he did more then stand there) audience with POTUS. He wanted to talk about how taxation is killing jobs for the small business creator, but how well Obama and his cronies are doing in all this economic upheaval. Apparently he has no clue that you cannot just walk into the what house (it ain't 1864 no more) and he even more clueless expects that the President of the United States of America takes audience with even Joe Schmoe that shows up demanding it. Frankly he is lucky he was not shot as a threat. He seems to think that the President was not home, but that could be the case as he does have a job with irregular hours and several demands. Truly amazing.

Your burdensome and punishing regulations made sure that job-creating small businesses suffer like never before. And yet, through it all, your friends, bundlers, and campaign contributors seem to be doing just fine. Thanks to your "spread the wealth" message, we’ve got people "occupying" legitimate businesses and industries, terrorizing the children of business leaders in their own homes, and calling for government control of everything and everybody. I thought you'd like to hear how all that is working out for us out here in the real world.

Mister President, I think it's time you and I continued our conversation.

I tried early and late, but you weren't home and I couldn't find anyone to take a message. Perhaps you had a good score at the golf course today? Any luck getting more campaign donations? I'm sure that's taking up a lot of your energy

.

\Do you think if he runs as "Joe" he needs to legally change his name from Samuel? Will he claim voter fraud if people cannot find his name on the ballot?