I'm not buying these exit polls. A larger plurality or even a narrow Tory majority coming. 538 is saying the marginals aren't being properly figured.

Second Sunderland seat also with a bigger swing than expected.

Conservative Party Chairman, big fat fatty

Liberal labour coalition is the most likely oucome if the libdems manage to get enough seats. If they were to go in with the conservatives it would probably be on a vote by vote basis rather than the libdems always supporting the conservatives. Clegg would have to chose when to no longer support the conservatives at minimal cost to his party since that would throw us into another general election.

Also the conservatives are very opposed to any kind of electoral reform beyond fannying round with boundaries to suit themselves. PR is right out.

jerseyhoya wrote:I'm not buying these exit polls. A larger plurality or even a narrow Tory majority coming. 538 is saying the marginals aren't being properly figured.

Second Sunderland seat also with a bigger swing than expected.

first seat was a radically redrawn constituency so a large swing not a surprise. Second one doesn't have that issue I think, so either that's a massive protest vote or wizlette can expect to be out of a job by the next financial year.

Third Sunderland seat, the only potentially competitive one, has a much smaller swing.

jerseyhoya wrote:Third Sunderland seat, the only potentially competitive one, has a much smaller swing.

phew. So it might actually be a hard to predict election, so.

Back to US elections for a second--Friends of Blanche Lincoln just called. I didn't pick up. I'm probably going to vote for Halter. I might end up regretting that if the Republicans do something nutty like nominate Jim Holt.

OOOoh--we have a switch in the British election: Belfast East switched from Democrat Unionist to the Alliance Party. I have no idea what that means.

<object width="420" height="245" id="msnbc1bf45b"><param name="movie" value="http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/32545640" classid="clsid:D27CDB6E-AE6D-11cf-96B8-444553540000" codebase="http://download.macromedia.com/pub/shockwave/cabs/flash/swflash.cab#version=10,0,0,0"><param name="FlashVars" value="launch=37003819&width=420&height=245"><param name="allowScriptAccess" value="always"><param name="allowFullScreen" value="true"><param name="wmode" value="opaque"><embed name="msnbc1bf45b" src="http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/32545640" width="420" height="245" FlashVars="launch=37003819&width=420&height=245" allowscriptaccess="always" allowFullScreen="true" wmode="opaque" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" pluginspage="http://www.adobe.com/shockwave/download/download.cgi?P1_Prod_Version=ShockwaveFlash"></embed></object>

I was hoping he would also point out advantages of the US system over the British one....I guess there are none

There will be if they go to a more proportional system.

Conservatives swing appears to be ahead of the exit polls in England in Lab/Con seats. Lib Dems might prevent an outright majority in the Lib Dem/Con marginals.

I love the BBC interviewing drunk people at this party

OOOoh--we have a switch in the British election: Belfast East switched from Democrat Unionist to the Alliance Party. I have no idea what that means.

This caught my eye, even with my limited understanding of Northern Ireland. East Belfast has historically been a unionist stronghold, and the Alliance Party is a liberal, anti-sectarian outfit. Maybe someone who knows more can elaborate, but this seems like a pretty big deal.

I love that what we would probably call absentee ballots, they call postal voters.

The owner's secretary calls me today:

"{the owner of the company} wants to invite you to brunch at the Vice President's house to support Beau Biden. I'm sorry about the late notice, but I'm going to need your social security number and drivers license number so the Secret Service can clear you."

[beat]

"And the $1,200 per plate fee. Your wife is also welcome to come. So what is your soc and driver's license number?"

I did that "wha wha wha whaaa?" thing that the fat kid from South Park's mom does. Then said "No." (I spared her, "Yeah, right")

It's looking like the exit polls were more right than me

The Lib Dems are doing so poorly that I wouldn't be surprised if the Tories end the night on more seats than Lab+Lib

I've got two questions:

1. What is up jeff2sf's ass?

2. Has the BBC updated their exit-poll based projections? Last I saw it was 304 for the Conservatives, 256 or so for Labour... any change? Hung parliament still expected? I've got the BBC on right now, but I doubt I'll be able to stay up late enough to see what happens.

And jersey, let me congratulate on your choice of going to grad school. Working on a Ph.D. in English literature that involves a surprising amount of political sciencey type stuff from late 16th-early 17th century England. Very cool choice.

But you will be a lonely conservative in a state University political science department

jerseyhoya wrote:It's looking like the exit polls were more right than me

The Lib Dems are doing so poorly that I wouldn't be surprised if the Tories end the night on more seats than Lab+Lib

My guess was the Conservatives would get their majority. I feel like the Lib Dems are a little like Ross Perot: fun to threaten with, if you're an angry voter, but not something most people are really prepared to follow through on. It's kind of like telling the bickering politicians that if they don't shape up and stop cheating, you'll turn this car right around and go home...

I am liking this Labour MP on the BBC right now asking incredulously "Why would Gordon Brown not be Labour's leader anymore?" Nothing like damage control...

They haven't updated it. I think the Conservatives might get a few more than they're expected to get.

We're at 188-145-28-25 (other) at the moment

Considering Sinn Fein don't take their seats, 320ish should be good to run a government. If the Tories can get to the 3-teens they won't need the lib dems or labour

I think there's a good chance the Tories finish ahead of Labour + Lib Dems.

I like the way they announce the results in England.

mozartpc27 wrote:I am liking this Labour MP on the BBC right now asking incredulously "Why would Gordon Brown not be Labour's leader anymore?" Nothing like damage control...

That's Jack Straw. He was the Foreign Secretary during the build up to the Iraq war.