See, now I am interested in this "uniform swing" model that fivethirtyeight has derided. It has the Conservatives at 296 seats, which seems low... but Labour has been holding its own and even gaining on Labour since we were at 200/150. Now 271/218: the Conservatives have only picked up 3 seats over Labour over the last 37 seats that went to one or the other, and the last 10 or so seats have favored Labour... I wonder if the Conservatives could even end up below 305. Seems unlikely, but nothing is ruled out with only 89 seats left to be decided. Assuming 6 of those go to the Lib Dems, and the rest go 50/50... I don't know, I guess the Conservatives would really be stunned to wind up with less than 310.

jerseyhoya wrote:Take out the NI parties...

What does Lab + Lib + Plaid + SNP + Green equal? Is that ahead of the Tories?

274 at the moment, so yes.

But barely

Cameron is the only person who has a chance at being PM

jerseyhoya wrote:But barely

Cameron is the only person who has a chance at being PM

Politically, I'd agree, Gordon Brown seems dead in the water, but I am curious to see how important the legal precedent of the unwritten constitution over there turns out to be: Brown gets first crack to form a government, so if he can do it, will the people stand for it? I suspect the benefit of having an unwritten constitution is that the answer is, "Maybe."

So many possibilities too. Let's say Cameron gets to form the government; does he try calling a snap election after he gets one or two pieces of major legislation through to consolidate his position and get the majority he is seeking? Or will the economy be so bad that having another election will only risk handing Number 10 back to Labour?

I really think that there is a degree to which that winning this particular election is a bit of winning the battle, but losing the war.

This new Conservative MP is pretending to be humble.

And he's a billionaire and looks like he's my age and not an ugly fellow. I think I want to be that guy.

jerseyhoya wrote:This new Conservative MP is pretending to be humble.

And he's a billionaire and looks like he's my age and not an ugly fellow. I think I want to be that guy.

That dude is a billionaire? In pounds?

Maybe his dad was the billionaire and he's only a millionaire. But really.

Ouch. LD gaining a seat on the Conservative pretty late in the game.

jerseyhoya wrote:Maybe his dad was the billionaire and he's only a millionaire. But really.

Yeah, no shit.

The BBC doesn't shortchange on the pompousness: "Theme for the Common Man" by Aaron Copland as the theme music for the 1974 hung parliament. Excellent choice.

If we are reading this election as Labour/Lib Dems/SNP/Plaid/Green vs. the Conservatives, it's 283-278 right now.

Nick Clegg and the Lib Dems are hunting for that proportional voting scheme, but I am wondering how that would work exactly. For example, the Conservatives just barely took a seat from the Lib Dems. To give "proportional representation," what would he do - add a bunch of MPs to each district? Or just use the popular vote, regardless of constituency, to apportion the 650 parliamentary seats among the different parties? That's a deeply radical change for a country that has precious little, by comparison to the United States, in the way of local self-governance. I can't imagine most people would want to see a system go away in which individual MPs are responsible to individual districts.

But to maintain that system, the only way to get "proportional representation" is to add an enormous number of MPs to the House of Commons, no? Because right now, there is only one per constituency.

It would be to go to a party list system I imagine

jerseyhoya wrote:It would be to go to a party list system I imagine

Enlighten me.

EDIT: I am reading WIkipedia.

They would do away with constituencies and would elect MPs on % of the national vote off of party lists, no?

jerseyhoya wrote:They would do away with constituencies and would elect MPs on % of the national vote off of party lists, no?

Looks that way, but is there really the political will in UK to do that? I would think not. I suppose devolving powers to Wales, Scotland, and Northern Ireland makes it more plausible than it would have been otherwise.

Dunno.

The journalist on BBC right now is living up to the English people have awful teeth standard.

Oh well, time for bed for me. I'll check first thing when I wake up.

The guy on the "telly" right now looks like Michael York.

But really, good night!