Is There A BETTER Day to Start the New Politics Thread?

Website · by **Wolfgang622** » Thu May 06, 2010 23:39:14

jerseyhoya wrote:I think there's a good chance the Tories finish ahead of Labour + Lib Dems.

It's certainly looking that way. I believe my wild guess number for the Conservatives was 332, which is high, but I figured that a lot of people would end up being more interested in seeing Labour out than in making a statement, and would switch from what they'd said they would do... vote Lib Dem... to vote Conservative. Looks like that is happening to a certain degree.

Website · by **Wolfgang622** » Thu May 06, 2010 23:39:53

jerseyhoya wrote:
mozartpc27 wrote:I am liking this Labour MP on the BBC right now asking incredulously "Why would Gordon Brown not be Labour's leader anymore?" Nothing like damage control...

That's Jack Straw. He was the Foreign Secretary during the build up to the Iraq war.

Ah. They gave his name while I was typing, so I missed it. Thanks.

Website · by **Wolfgang622** » Thu May 06, 2010 23:46:07

At 250 Conservative/150 Labour, the Conservatives are "on pace" for 371 or so seats, assuming none of the remainder go to any other parties. I feel like this gives them a very legit shot at getting their majority, but it would be interesting to see what results are still pending, and whether the remainder "lean" to Labour or Conservative traditionally. I don't suppose there is any place that would tell me whether the remaining areas are Liberal strongholds, Labour strongholds, or swing constituencies?

Website · by **Wolfgang622** » Thu May 06, 2010 23:47:07

I see a lot of results from the north are still pending, so I assume Labour will hold at a better rate than they have been holding up there, albeit by narrow margins...

by **jerseyhoya** » Thu May 06, 2010 23:49:55

The corridor from Liverpool to Manchester will be strongly Labour and is still out. The marginals that are out are in London.

Website · by **Wolfgang622** » Thu May 06, 2010 23:51:58

jerseyhoya wrote:[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=x97DdZho11k&feature=player_embedded[/youtube]

ME ROOTING FOR SPECTER TO LOSE WHENEVER WHEREVER

But really, awesome ad

That is a great ad.

But I am becoming not so sure it wouldn't be better for Toomey if Specter won the PA nomination. So perhaps you ought to be careful what you wish for?

I kind of go back and forth on this every day.

Website · by **Wolfgang622** » Fri May 07, 2010 00:01:26

The Conservatives really ought to mothball Lord Ashcroft.

by **jerseyhoya** » Fri May 07, 2010 00:14:06

55 of the 180 outstanding seats are in London proper

by **jerseyhoya** » Fri May 07, 2010 00:24:24

Fuck Salford you cunt.

Website · by **Wolfgang622** » Fri May 07, 2010 00:44:09

It will be interesting to see how this shakes out if the Conservatives end up with just about 300 seats, and Labour with closer to 260. It gives Gordon Brown and Labour just a little daylight to try to form a government, and of course the Conservatives will fight like hell. But the thing is, England's short-term prospects are so bad economically, and the probability of another election in two years' time so likely in the case of a hung Parliament, that I'm not sure it's worth the winning for the whichever party gets to claim their guy is prime minister. It might better, if it's going to be a minority government anyway, with another election coming sooner rather than later, to let the other guy win: the party that ends up out, in this case, I think at this moment has to be considered the odds-on-favorite for the next polling, whenever that occurs.

by **TenuredVulture** » Fri May 07, 2010 00:47:32

Why does it take the limeys so long to count their votes? Isn't it like 6 am GMT?

Website · by **Wolfgang622** » Fri May 07, 2010 00:50:51

TenuredVulture wrote:Why does it take the limeys so long to count their votes? Isn't it like 6 am GMT?

I was wondering about that myself. In the city especially, apparently. Eventually, I will have to go to bed.

Website · by **Wolfgang622** » Fri May 07, 2010 00:53:23

It is kind of frightening how many votes the BNP get in most constituencies.

by **jerseyhoya** » Fri May 07, 2010 01:15:28

TenuredVulture wrote:Why does it take the limeys so long to count their votes? Isn't it like 6 am GMT?

Paper ballots. It prevents Diebold from stealing the election for George Bush, but it makes the Brits stay up too damn late.

Website · by **Wolfgang622** » Fri May 07, 2010 01:18:17

I wish I'd followed earlier UK elections. This is exciting stuff.

by **jerseyhoya** » Fri May 07, 2010 01:19:08

This is pretty awesome, ain't it, Moz?

Website · by **Wolfgang622** » Fri May 07, 2010 01:23:17

I like the walkway to #10 graphic. Cute.

I'm really in suspense here about how close the Conservatives are going to get. It is funny how the difference between 305 and 315 makes a huge difference between the ability of Labour to credibly form a government maybe, and it seems like any number in that range is still in play. I keep checking fivethirtyeight to see if they've updated their projections.

Conservatives have been stuck on 268 for awhile, too.

Website · by **Wolfgang622** » Fri May 07, 2010 01:23:39

And as I say that, they pick up 269.

Website · by **Wolfgang622** » Fri May 07, 2010 01:25:55

This bald fella with the glasses on the BBC seems to think that Labour will have a shot to form a government by calling up the Lib Dems, but it seems pretty clear to me that Labour + Lib Dems won't equal 326, so there will need to be 1-3 small parties involved for. I realize you can pretty much count the Green Party for Labour, but even so... a 3-5 party coalition minority government doesn't sound especially sustainable to me.

by **jerseyhoya** » Fri May 07, 2010 01:29:51

Take out the NI parties...

What does Lab + Lib + Plaid + SNP + Green equal? Is that ahead of the Tories?

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Is There A BETTER Day to Start the New Politics Thread?