Is There A BETTER Day to Start the New Politics Thread?

by **Werthless** » Thu May 06, 2010 11:53:07

jeff2sf wrote:Achtung, Achtung. I'm willing to concede that JH, given his passions and future work goals, should in fact sit around watching a British election.

(but drink some Diet Coke/Diet Pepsi straight)

Is he allowed to drink fermented OJ? How about Seltzer water? (He drinks more Seltzer water than I drink liquids)

by **jeff2sf** » Thu May 06, 2010 11:57:47

No, and frankly, if you and Harpua were doing your job, I wouldn't have had to step in. Watch last week's Southpark for how to do an intervention.

by **Harpua** » Thu May 06, 2010 12:09:02

Step in? On an internet message board?

by **Werthless** » Thu May 06, 2010 12:10:50

Don't pretend you know anything about me, Jeff.

by **jerseyhoya** » Thu May 06, 2010 12:13:02

OK we can stop now.

by **jerseyhoya** » Thu May 06, 2010 12:46:13

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=x97DdZho11k&feature=player_embedded[/youtube]

ME ROOTING FOR SPECTER TO LOSE WHENEVER WHEREVER

But really, awesome ad

by **jerseyhoya** » Thu May 06, 2010 14:27:33

Good info on the UK exit polls we will see in about 2.5 hours.

The first result comes out at 10pm on the dot, with a final projection at 11pm or so.

The aim of the exit poll is to predict the seat totals, not the share of the vote, and the team will try to work out if there are different shifts in support in different types of seat. The call is based on a probability of each seat going one way or the other, all summed up to make a seat total.

In terms of past accuracy, the exit poll last time got the Labour majority exactly right (though they were slightly off with Conservative and Lib Dem seats). Unless something goes terribly wrong, we should have a broad idea of the result a couple of minutes after 10 o’clock.

by **dajafi** » Thu May 06, 2010 14:36:32

Eh, as someone slightly interested in the UK election but limited in my discretionary time, reading jh's take on it is kind of perfect for my purposes. Carry on.

by **jerseyhoya** » Thu May 06, 2010 16:45:34

Rumors that the Tories might be on 39% and really close to taking a majority. Lab/Lib fighting for second in the popular vote. 15 minutes till the exit polls, so we'll see if the leaked ones are for real.

by **TenuredVulture** » Thu May 06, 2010 17:01:16

307 255 59 29

Though the Beeb guy is skeptical because he doesn't think the Lib Dems actually lost seats.

by **jerseyhoya** » Thu May 06, 2010 17:01:59

307-255-59-29

"everything to play for" sez the BBC

by **jerseyhoya** » Thu May 06, 2010 17:09:54

Man Sunderland must be a boring place, Wiz :lol:

by **dajafi** » Thu May 06, 2010 17:41:18

So if there's a hung Parliament, the Tories coalition with the little parties? A "non-aggression pact" with the Lib Dems who go along with the Conservatives in forming a government and stay quiet on some policy questions in return for process reform?

by **TenuredVulture** » Thu May 06, 2010 17:43:29

dajafi wrote:So if there's a hung Parliament, the Tories coalition with the little parties? A "non-aggression pact" with the Lib Dems who go along with the Conservatives in forming a government and stay quiet on some policy questions in return for process reform?

It is possible (though I don't think it's likely, but I don't really know anything) that the Lib Dems could form a government with Labor as well. I don't think it will go that way because I think a vote for the Lib Dems was a vote against Labor.

by **dajafi** » Thu May 06, 2010 17:45:16

TenuredVulture wrote:
dajafi wrote:So if there's a hung Parliament, the Tories coalition with the little parties? A "non-aggression pact" with the Lib Dems who go along with the Conservatives in forming a government and stay quiet on some policy questions in return for process reform?

It is possible (though I don't think it's likely, but I don't really know anything) that the Lib Dems could form a government with Labor as well. I don't think it will go that way because I think a vote for the Lib Dems was a vote against Labor.

Now I'm just exposing my gross ignorance... but are you saying that the Tories wouldn't have the first shot to form a government by virtue of having a plurality?

by **jerseyhoya** » Thu May 06, 2010 17:50:31

TenuredVulture wrote:
dajafi wrote:So if there's a hung Parliament, the Tories coalition with the little parties? A "non-aggression pact" with the Lib Dems who go along with the Conservatives in forming a government and stay quiet on some policy questions in return for process reform?

It is possible (though I don't think it's likely, but I don't really know anything) that the Lib Dems could form a government with Labor as well. I don't think it will go that way because I think a vote for the Lib Dems was a vote against Labor.

A vote for the Lib Dems wasn't necessarily a vote against Labour. In Lib Dem/Tory marginals (many in the Southwest and really the south of England), Labour isn't a huge factor so left leaning voters would vote Lib Dem even if they might be natural Labour supporters.

Lib Dems-Labour is a more natural coalition, but the thing is on those exit poll numbers Lab/Lib can't get a majority anyway.

by **jerseyhoya** » Thu May 06, 2010 17:52:09

dajafi wrote:
TenuredVulture wrote:
dajafi wrote:So if there's a hung Parliament, the Tories coalition with the little parties? A "non-aggression pact" with the Lib Dems who go along with the Conservatives in forming a government and stay quiet on some policy questions in return for process reform?

It is possible (though I don't think it's likely, but I don't really know anything) that the Lib Dems could form a government with Labor as well. I don't think it will go that way because I think a vote for the Lib Dems was a vote against Labor.

Now I'm just exposing my gross ignorance... but are you saying that the Tories wouldn't have the first shot to form a government by virtue of having a plurality?

Brown is PM until he resigns. He gets first crack at it.

by **TenuredVulture** » Thu May 06, 2010 17:52:28

dajafi wrote:
TenuredVulture wrote:
dajafi wrote:So if there's a hung Parliament, the Tories coalition with the little parties? A "non-aggression pact" with the Lib Dems who go along with the Conservatives in forming a government and stay quiet on some policy questions in return for process reform?

It is possible (though I don't think it's likely, but I don't really know anything) that the Lib Dems could form a government with Labor as well. I don't think it will go that way because I think a vote for the Lib Dems was a vote against Labor.

Now I'm just exposing my gross ignorance... but are you saying that the Tories wouldn't have the first shot to form a government by virtue of having a plurality?

It's a constitutional monarchy without a constitution.

I do think a coaltion between the Lib Dems and Labor is legal. But again, I don't think it will happen.

by **TenuredVulture** » Thu May 06, 2010 17:55:24

I liked how in the 17th century Cromwell just got rid of a bunch of Parliamentarians who didn't see things his way.

by **Wizlah** » Thu May 06, 2010 18:26:38

Revised exit poll numbers have it at 305, 255, 61 plus all the independents. Rest of uk prepares for the austerity years. DUP splurge on tea and gold filigree orangeman banners.

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Is There A BETTER Day to Start the New Politics Thread?