Is There A BETTER Day to Start the New Politics Thread?

by **TenuredVulture** » Tue May 04, 2010 09:26:04

You want to be a vice principle or an assistant superintendent?

by **CalvinBall** » Tue May 04, 2010 09:29:23

a teacher?

by **jerseyhoya** » Tue May 04, 2010 10:32:58

What a difference going on TV makes. In the weeks since he first began running ads, Rep. Joe Sestak (D) has significantly closed the gap with Sen. Arlen Specter (D-PA), according to a new survey.

The Quinnipiac Univ. poll, conducted April 28 to May 2, surveyed 930 likely Dem primary voters for a margin of error of +/- 3.2%. Specter and Sestak were tested.

PRIMARY ELECTION MATCHUP
Specter 47 (-2 from last, 4/5)
Sestak 39 (+7)

Specter's name recognition is understandably much higher than Sestak's, but he doesn't have the best ratings among Dems a year after switching parties. While 57% view him favorably, 31% see him unfavorably -- almost 3 times higher than the percent who view Sestak unfavorably. Sestak has a 43%/11% fav/unfav rating, and 44% of voters still don't know enough to rate him.

We gon have a late election night

Website · by **Wolfgang622** » Tue May 04, 2010 10:41:39

TenuredVulture wrote:I'd start with vice principals and assistant superintendents rather than class room teachers.

Bingo.

Website · by **Wolfgang622** » Tue May 04, 2010 10:44:41

jerseyhoya wrote:
What a difference going on TV makes. In the weeks since he first began running ads, Rep. Joe Sestak (D) has significantly closed the gap with Sen. Arlen Specter (D-PA), according to a new survey.

The Quinnipiac Univ. poll, conducted April 28 to May 2, surveyed 930 likely Dem primary voters for a margin of error of +/- 3.2%. Specter and Sestak were tested.

PRIMARY ELECTION MATCHUP
Specter 47 (-2 from last, 4/5)
Sestak 39 (+7)

Specter's name recognition is understandably much higher than Sestak's, but he doesn't have the best ratings among Dems a year after switching parties. While 57% view him favorably, 31% see him unfavorably -- almost 3 times higher than the percent who view Sestak unfavorably. Sestak has a 43%/11% fav/unfav rating, and 44% of voters still don't know enough to rate him.

We gon have a late election night

If I am in town, I am voting for Specter, I've decided. Sestak seemed like rather a douchenozzle who stands no chance of beating Toomey in a statewide election. Specter stands, granted, next-to-chance, and maybe Specter will bring out more angry conservative vote than Toomey will, but I suspect the tea party set will be out in force in November, regardless of the Democratic nominee.

Website · by **Wolfgang622** » Tue May 04, 2010 11:13:20

So, looking at 538.com and hearing this morning Labour's desperate last-minute plea to its voters to "vote strategically" to keep the Conservatives out of the majority, I feel like the Conservatives are going to seal the deal and avoid a hung Parliament in England. I'll guess they wind up with 332 seats, more than 538 is projecting, and just enough to give them a majority.

by **The Nightman Cometh** » Tue May 04, 2010 13:22:08

I can't wait for the escalation of essentially pointless drilling along the gulf coast. One step closer to being able to power our cars with sea water.

by **jerseyhoya** » Wed May 05, 2010 10:53:34

As the rest of Europe is scraping together bailout money to save Greece's economy, the Greeks are protesting, burning down banks, killing people. Awesome.

by **Werthless** » Wed May 05, 2010 11:25:41

Perhaps I should start calling myself a "civil libertarian."

by **jerseyhoya** » Wed May 05, 2010 11:57:37

Rep. David Obey, facing his first hard race in decades, is retiring. Decent chance we get our first former cast member from the Real World in Congress.

by **TenuredVulture** » Wed May 05, 2010 12:08:11

There's a reason why many prefer the term "small government conservative" even though that term means something different from libertarianism.

Of course, on the specifics, many positions consistent with the Libertarian Party such as more or less unrestricted immigration are wildly unpopular.

The term itself sounds icky--foreign even.

by **TenuredVulture** » Wed May 05, 2010 12:12:43

Thinking about the Tea Party movement--even though many tea partiers talk about a return to Constitutional principles, it seems to me in reality their political orientations and instincts, not to mention their rhetoric and symbolism owe a great deal more to the ideologies that drove the American Revolution and not the principles that led to the Constitutional Convention and its ratification.

That is, I think the Tea Partiers owe more to Patrick Henry ("I smell a rat") and Jeffersonian democracy and the Anti-Federalists than they owe to Madison and especially Hamilton.

A reading of the Federalist Papers pretty clearly indicates that the aim of the Constitutional Convention was to strengthen the federal government as much as was politically possible.

by **drsmooth** » Wed May 05, 2010 13:38:46

jerseyhoya wrote:Rep. David Obey, facing his first hard race in decades, is retiring. Decent chance we get our first former cast member from the Real World in Congress.

I know I'd want an axe-wielding lawyer for my congressman, but probably not one who's such a fuck tard on health care.

The health care takeover fails to address the primary purpose of healthcare reform - reducing cost.

Really Sean - "reducing cost"? I'll help you with that, because your way makes it so simple. We'll simply make sure no money is spent on your family's care. There, we've reduced cost - success!

Idiot.

by **Phan In Phlorida** » Wed May 05, 2010 17:52:59

Werthless wrote:

Perhaps I should start calling myself a "civil libertarian."

To be fair, probably half of those responding thought it was "librarian" and remembered they have an overdue book...

by **Phan In Phlorida** » Wed May 05, 2010 18:44:08

Perhaps that debate was a little too long?

by **WheelsFellOff** » Wed May 05, 2010 18:57:41

The most sensible take on the Arizona bill I've yet to see from either side.

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MKhChMHhBN8&feature=player_embedded[/youtube]

by **jerseyhoya** » Wed May 05, 2010 23:14:01

Final UK Projection: Conservatives 312, Labour 204, LibDems 103

Nate's final election projection. Polls open in three hours.

Very much looking forward to getting ripped and watching the BBC tomorrow night.

Cool Google Spreadsheet doc from The Guardian on targeted seat lists.

Expected declaration times for each constituency.

I'm going to say the Tories get into the 320s and make some sort of pact with the Ulster Unionists that makes them look bad.

There's really not much reason for me to think any better than Nate's number. I'm basing it on the Tories creeping up a point or two (been 33-36, now 35-37) in most preelection polls and the improved position of the Lib Dems possibly confusing tactical voting decisions of left of center voters. Which is to say I'm just being biased, and predicting the Conservatives to win more seats than logic says they will.

by **VoxOrion** » Wed May 05, 2010 23:44:08

Interesting WSJ bit:

Mr. Clegg's Liberal Democrats reacted like the British troops in the 1915 Gallipoli campaign. Having seized the high ground, they didn't know what to do next. Instead of telling voters what a Liberal Democrat Britain would look like, Mr. Clegg speculated about potential coalition partners and repeated his party's age-old demand for proportional representation. He thus demonstrated that if any party hadn't changed in 50 years, it was the Liberal Democrats.

by **jerseyhoya** » Thu May 06, 2010 00:22:27

I thought this was very well written/argued by whatever staffer put this together for Brewer.

by **jeff2sf** » Thu May 06, 2010 00:27:47

jerseyhoya wrote:Final UK Projection: Conservatives 312, Labour 204, LibDems 103

Nate's final election projection. Polls open in three hours.

Very much looking forward to getting ripped and watching the BBC tomorrow night.

For the love of God, you need to stop drinking so much and rooting about stuff that doesn't impact you at all. I mean, if I can get you a tape of my 3 year old's soccer match, do you want me to send it to you so you can pick sides and root for one team? And stop with the drinking, we get it, you are a barely functioning alcoholic, but jesus.

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Is There A BETTER Day to Start the New Politics Thread?