McCain is not trying to avoid the debate. He's at best tied, and likely behind, and dropping. Not debating doesn't help McCain. Now, avoiding or delaying a Palin debate is a possibility.

Rumors on Redstate about Palin debating on Friday, however, made me piss myself.

anyone else download michael moore's new free film Slacker Uprising?

i watched it last night... very... ehhhhhh... kinda crappy. and i usually enjoy his films on several levels. this one though, not much to it. nice little cat stevens cover by eddie veder in there actually.

2 things:

1. It does not seem to be such a great time in Spain right now, contrary to other thoughts expressed here.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/feedarticle/7819615

2. I checked on both my wife and my diplomas. There does not seem to be an expiration date on either of them. Just thought some people could benefit from that info.

jeff2sf wrote:
2. I checked on both my wife and my diplomas. There does not seem to be an expiration date on either of them. Just thought some people could benefit from that info.

you should check your birth certificate for an expiration date

Camp Holdout wrote:anyone else download michael moore's new free film Slacker Uprising?

i watched it last night... very... ehhhhhh... kinda crappy. and i usually enjoy his films on several levels. this one though, not much to it. nice little cat stevens cover by eddie veder in there actually.

OMG! Cat is now named Yusuf Islam!! Michael Moore is a terrorist!!

(which song BTW?)

The Red Tornado wrote:

Camp Holdout wrote:anyone else download michael moore's new free film Slacker Uprising?

i watched it last night... very... ehhhhhh... kinda crappy. and i usually enjoy his films on several levels. this one though, not much to it. nice little cat stevens cover by eddie veder in there actually.

OMG! Cat is now named Yusuf Islam!! Michael Moore is a terrorist!!

(which song BTW?)

don't be shy. i think it was about a 1/3rd of the way through. really it was just documenting his tour in 2004 to get out the youth vote in the swing states, really no arc or storyline in the film. not that it needed one.

More thoughts on McCain--and I wanted to put this here before I started reading what everyone else things, because at this point, we're all just speculating.

There are two things going on here--the economic crisis, and the campaign. McCain's move ties them together more tightly than they were before. In any event, I think McCain really does want to see a deal passed, because first, he believes it to be necessary, and second, passing a deal might help him, and doing nothing would be bad.

As far as the campaign element goes, I don't think this is about trying to wrong foot Obama.

If I may use a poker analogy. This is like having a short stack and going all in with something like a pair of sixes. If I understand poker correctly (and I probably don't) you go all in with a weakish hand because it's your best chance to avoid elimination. You're not really concerned with what your opponents do--in fact, the whole purpose of going all in doesn't seemed to be based on a calculation of your opponents response--that's their problem. They can fold, or call. Ok, I really don't know enough about poker to go any further with this. I think it largely takes strategy out of it though.

But, I think McCain misplayed his hand. It's not so much what he did, it's the way he did it. Suspending a campaign is too much. Unilaterally postponing the debate is risky, and what might emerge is a return to the idea that McCain often acts first without thinking through the consequences. Again, to probably misapply a poker analogy, he probably goes all in when it's not necessary.

There's another element here that so far I've not hear anyone talking about--the small government conservative types might see this as a reason to rally around Bob Barr. Or even, heaven help us, Ron Paul. That could end up costing McCain. I doubt it will have much of an impact--small government conservatism is politically even deader now than it was.

For what it's worth, here are some early and probably not very reliable polling results on the matter.

You go all in with a weak hand when you're short shacked IF you're the first to enter a pot, your opponents generally only call you with strong hands and even if they do call you, you still have a chance to win even if up against aces (which you're more likely to be up against Ace ten or something similar). So you figure-

80%- everyone folds you pick up blinds and stay alive with 10% or more added to your stack

20% you get called but win and double up 30% of the time approx.

(end results- 80% you're a little better than before, 6% you're much better, 14% you're done)


So, now how does the analogy work?

jeff2sf wrote:2 things:

1. It does not seem to be such a great time in Spain right now, contrary to other thoughts expressed here.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/feedarticle/7819615

It's not a good time to be in ireland either. last time I heard, tho', it was a global economy, and we're being hit with a global recession. But just because an economy's financial sector hasn't exposed itself to very risky debt products of the US subprime market doesn't mean that it can't indulge itself in the same kind of property-fuelled spending boom that everyone else has done.

It just means its financial sector is less likely to take a serious hit and will not face the same liquidity problems as other countries. Which is probably why Grupo Santander recently brought up another chunk of the british banking and mortgage sector when it purchased Alliance & Leicester, who were one of the next banks under pressure after Northern Rock.

Wow...

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Vbg6hF0nShQ[/youtube]

There's a lot of talk in the left blogosphere around how McCain's whole "suspending the campaign" move is really about protecting Palin. Before watching this, I thought it was paranoiac nonsense.

Now I think it could well be right. I'm pretty sure I've never seen anyone in the public eye as painfully clueless and ignorant as Sarah Palin. If this is all she can do after weeks of intensive briefings, I'd be terrified too. "Bad joke" doesn't begin to describe this.

She is completely incapable of doing anything but regurgitating campaign talking points.

Katie: "GIVE ME SPECIFIC EXAMPLES, WOMAN"
Sarah: "He's also known as The Maverick, though..."
Katie: "NO. REALLY. ACTUAL REAL LIFE EXAMPLES PLZ."
Sarah: "I'll try and find them and bring them to ya..!"

dajafi wrote:Wow...

[youtube]Palin says words, but doesn't say anything[/youtube]

There's a lot of talk in the left blogosphere around how McCain's whole "suspending the campaign" move is really about protecting Palin. Before watching this, I thought it was paranoiac nonsense.

Now I think it could well be right. I'm pretty sure I've never seen anyone in the public eye as painfully clueless and ignorant as Sarah Palin. If this is all she can do after weeks of intensive briefings, I'd be terrified too. "Bad joke" doesn't begin to describe this.

I don't think they've suspended the campaign to hide her. If they were doing that, they probably would be hiding her better than letting her talk to Katie Couric.

That said, that was pretty bad. On the bright side, apparently my uncle told my parents yesterday that he can likely get me a job after the election, so I have less personally invested in the election of McCain-Palin than I did yesterday.

Woody wrote:Sarah: "I'll try and find them and bring them to ya..!"

Saw "Fargo" on TV last weekend. I'd rather vote for Marge Gundersen...

Holy christ. That was terrible.

jerseyhoya wrote:
That said, that was pretty bad. On the bright side, apparently my uncle told my parents yesterday that he can likely get me a job after the election, so I have less personally invested in the election of McCain-Palin than I did yesterday.

Just like a politician, throw your princpals out the window if and when you can get personally compensated.

dajafi wrote:

Woody wrote:Sarah: "I'll try and find them and bring them to ya..!"

Saw "Fargo" on TV last weekend. I'd rather vote for Marge Gundersen...

She shoots better, even when pregnant. Who wouldn't vote for Margie?

The Red Tornado wrote:

jerseyhoya wrote:That said, that was pretty bad. On the bright side, apparently my uncle told my parents yesterday that he can likely get me a job after the election, so I have less personally invested in the election of McCain-Palin than I did yesterday.

Just like a politician, throw your princpals out the window if and when you can get personally compensated.

:?:

jerseyhoya wrote:

The Red Tornado wrote:

jerseyhoya wrote:That said, that was pretty bad. On the bright side, apparently my uncle told my parents yesterday that he can likely get me a job after the election, so I have less personally invested in the election of McCain-Palin than I did yesterday.

Just like a politician, throw your princpals out the window if and when you can get personally compensated.

:?:

I was joking that you dont care who wins the election because you have a job no matter who wins. (Guess it was a bit of a stretch)

Wizlah wrote:

dajafi wrote:

Woody wrote:Sarah: "I'll try and find them and bring them to ya..!"

Saw "Fargo" on TV last weekend. I'd rather vote for Marge Gundersen...

She shoots better, even when pregnant. Who wouldn't vote for Margie?

she was in burn after reading. good surprise. i would vote for her to be VP off of those two roles.

Ben Smith picks up on another Palin problem: the Jews aren't down.

The link features a quote from Palin's preacher that includes stereotyping comments about "Israelites." Soon after the Palin selection first broke, I remember seeing the argument that her Jews-for-Jesus affiliation might not play well in Florida. I was hopeful, but that felt like a stretch... and yet Obama seems to be gaining ground in Florida.

This is a big deal. I know old Jews; I'm related to old Jews. They might not be particularly inclined to vote for the young black guy. But they damn sure won't vote for a shiksa who might be (as they see it) an anti-Semite.