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Phillies Thoughts: Randomness is Our Best Hope

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Re: Phillies Thoughts: Randomness is Our Best Hope

Postby td11 » Fri Dec 12, 2014 13:16:28

travis wood almost no hit us once
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Re: Phillies Thoughts: Randomness is Our Best Hope

Postby WilliamC » Fri Dec 12, 2014 13:17:48

He also has a lot more power than Revere.
Do it again!

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Re: Phillies Thoughts: Randomness is Our Best Hope

Postby Wheels Tupay » Fri Dec 12, 2014 13:32:21

td11 wrote:travis wood almost no hit us once


Then Doc laughed at him. Then went to a zoo.
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EDP 2020

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Re: Phillies Thoughts: Randomness is Our Best Hope

Postby RichmondPhilsFan » Fri Dec 12, 2014 14:07:16

td11 wrote:travis wood almost no hit us once

Actually, he was perfect through 8 that night until Chooch led off the 9th with a double.

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Re: Phillies Thoughts: Randomness is Our Best Hope

Postby Grotewold » Fri Dec 12, 2014 15:51:32

Strong analysis on the Phils' downfall from old friend MattS

[Reveal] Spoiler:
'04-'07 drafts in particular

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Re: Phillies Thoughts: Randomness is Our Best Hope

Postby dajafi » Fri Dec 12, 2014 15:57:04

Grotewold wrote:Strong analysis on the Phils' downfall from old friend MattS

[Reveal] Spoiler:
'04-'07 drafts in particular


It's a great piece. The most interesting (and from a narrative POV unsettling) part of it is how "the blame" stretches across every one of the key decision-makers: Wade, Gillick, Arbuckle, Ruben. Of course, all but Gillick also had a role, or at least was there, during the '98-'03 period when they crushed the draft.

I'm obligated to point out that Matt built off an awesome piece that schmenkman published on TGP earlier this fall, comparing the Phils' aggregate draft results in the last decade vs. the previous decade. He tips the cap, though IMO a little later than he might have.

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Re: Phillies Thoughts: Randomness is Our Best Hope

Postby bleh » Fri Dec 12, 2014 16:05:13

Image

fml

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Re: Phillies Thoughts: Randomness is Our Best Hope

Postby td11 » Fri Dec 12, 2014 16:07:15

silver lining: the last 2 drafts have been promising and it seems almost impossible that they'll draft that poorly for 4 consecutive years again
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Re: Phillies Thoughts: Randomness is Our Best Hope

Postby CFP » Fri Dec 12, 2014 16:21:40

bleh wrote:Image

fml


That's amazing. Very sad.

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Re: Phillies Thoughts: Randomness is Our Best Hope

Postby td11 » Fri Dec 12, 2014 16:29:33

even sadder:

Image

Image
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Re: Phillies Thoughts: Randomness is Our Best Hope

Postby jamiethekiller » Fri Dec 12, 2014 16:32:01

bring back those 96 to '03 guys

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Re: Phillies Thoughts: Randomness is Our Best Hope

Postby CFP » Fri Dec 12, 2014 16:37:09

td11 wrote:even sadder:

Image

Image



Image

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Re: Phillies Thoughts: Randomness is Our Best Hope

Postby Monkeyboy » Fri Dec 12, 2014 16:40:51

td11 wrote:even sadder:

Image

Image



That pretty much sums it up. Add in signings like the Youngs and Doc falling off a cliff and you get a disaster.
Agnostic dyslexic insomniacs lay awake all night wondering if there is a Dog.

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Re: Phillies Thoughts: Randomness is Our Best Hope

Postby lethal » Fri Dec 12, 2014 16:48:37

dajafi wrote:
Grotewold wrote:Strong analysis on the Phils' downfall from old friend MattS

[Reveal] Spoiler:
'04-'07 drafts in particular


It's a great piece. The most interesting (and from a narrative POV unsettling) part of it is how "the blame" stretches across every one of the key decision-makers: Wade, Gillick, Arbuckle, Ruben. Of course, all but Gillick also had a role, or at least was there, during the '98-'03 period when they crushed the draft.

I'm obligated to point out that Matt built off an awesome piece that schmenkman published on TGP earlier this fall, comparing the Phils' aggregate draft results in the last decade vs. the previous decade. He tips the cap, though IMO a little later than he might have.


Both are great pieces. My question after reading is how much better the Phillies would be if they had even average drafts each year from 04-07. I looked at the first 10 rounds of the 04 and 05 drafts really quickly and looked at the players picked the dozen or so spots after each Phillies pick and it wasn't like there were a lot of future stars there.

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Re: Phillies Thoughts: Randomness is Our Best Hope

Postby momadance » Fri Dec 12, 2014 16:49:52

Phred wrote:
RichmondPhilsFan wrote:
mcare89 wrote:
momadance wrote:
LongDrive wrote:Friend of mine is on a flight with Rube right now from Chicago. He says Amaro doesn't look too happy and is flying coach.


Coach and a non-direct flight. They must hate him.

I rode back from Vegas over the summer with Montgomery in coach. It's a cheap organization from top to bottom.

You'd think that these guys would have enough FF miles to get upgrades.


To paraphrase Alec Baldwin in Glengarry Glennross...1st class is for winners.

I'd bet that he flew 1st class to and from the 2008 winter meetings.


Image

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Re: Phillies Thoughts: Randomness is Our Best Hope

Postby Werthless » Fri Dec 12, 2014 17:32:06

td11 wrote:travis wood almost no hit us once

Not so interesting fact: I was there.

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Re: Phillies Thoughts: Randomness is Our Best Hope

Postby Werthless » Fri Dec 12, 2014 17:34:14

dajafi wrote:He tips the cap, though IMO a little later than he might have.

Image

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Re: Phillies Thoughts: Randomness is Our Best Hope

Postby Trent Steele » Fri Dec 12, 2014 17:43:33

What I learned from that article is that if you suck enough, there is literally no contract awful enough to make a difference.
I know what you're asking yourself and the answer is yes. I have a nick name for my penis. Its called the Octagon, but I also nick named my testes - my left one is James Westfall and my right one is Doctor Kenneth Noisewater.

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Re: Phillies Thoughts: Randomness is Our Best Hope

Postby Bucky » Fri Dec 12, 2014 18:19:00

RichmondPhilsFan wrote:
mcare89 wrote:
momadance wrote:
LongDrive wrote:Friend of mine is on a flight with Rube right now from Chicago. He says Amaro doesn't look too happy and is flying coach.


Coach and a non-direct flight. They must hate him.

I rode back from Vegas over the summer with Montgomery in coach. It's a cheap organization from top to bottom.

You'd think that these guys would have enough FF miles to get upgrades.



they don't get miles from charters do they

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Re: Phillies Thoughts: Randomness is Our Best Hope

Postby Philly the Kid » Fri Dec 12, 2014 20:19:58

Grotewold wrote:Strong analysis on the Phils' downfall from old friend MattS

[Reveal] Spoiler:
'04-'07 drafts in particular



Great reading.

So is drafting in the first 2 rounds of MLB, essentially almost all luck?

If Howard's career arc was closer to say Big Pappi, and Utley and Howard did not decline so quickly and after less than a 10 year run, even Pujols had a 10 year run of greatness not a 5-6 year run. That could have helped.

The drag of it all, is that they didn't capitalize as much on 2010 and 2011. A 2nd WS win say in 2011, with 3 apperances in 4 years and we'd have a lot more to bouy us in these dark years.

I would say this ... the reason for new leadership at the top, is that over the next couple years the books will get cleared of some of the mega-salaries, and a GM with better instincts and vision, and use of funds -- could compensate for lack of draft prospects coming in to their own, by assembling a team smartly. Maybe one of the last 2 drafts and next 2-3 to come will yield something to get us out of the bottom, and what a bottom. The order of magnitude with which we were worse than the other bad clubs, is shocking.

So odd, that the 76 Phils of 101 wins, and the 11 phils of 102 wins, could not reach the WS.

You could say the Phils of the mid -late 70's that got good was also from good drafts and developing their own talent...they sort of did the same thing at the end of that run, trying to bring in veterans (Rose, Morgan, Perez, Dejesus, Matthews, Bradley, etc) rather than use the last of their own talent like Sandberg and Franco.

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