To be fair to Eem, that's what the Phils offered him

Eem wrote:To be fair to Eem, that's what the Phils offered him

thats why i quoted that. you got the phillies part right. no one could have guessed what the nats would do

when the luxury tax bumps up after 2013, thats when votto becomes a FA. at that point, howard has 3/75 left on his deal. maybe we can offer him to an AL team and offer to pay half, then give votto 8/500

FTN wrote:

"I know Ryan's desire to be successful remains very strong. I know there was nobody more upset about how things ended the last couple of years than he is. And so, I think he's going to be as productive a player as he has in the past, and even more so at times.

"There are some adjustments I think that he understands," he said. "There are some things he wants to do, adjustmentwise, offensively. I think Charlie and GG [hitting coach Greg Gross] and others will influence him. I think he's open to that. He's down there with Charlie right now, discussing just that. Hopefully he gets back to the point where he's making more consistent contact and doing the things that he's done to be successful so far."

more bunting.

I'm hoping that by more consistent contact he means not swinging and missing at pitches nowhere near the plate and taking those pitches instead. Probably a stretch.

Grotewold wrote:

FTN wrote:

"I know Ryan's desire to be successful remains very strong. I know there was nobody more upset about how things ended the last couple of years than he is. And so, I think he's going to be as productive a player as he has in the past, and even more so at times.

"There are some adjustments I think that he understands," he said. "There are some things he wants to do, adjustmentwise, offensively. I think Charlie and GG [hitting coach Greg Gross] and others will influence him. I think he's open to that. He's down there with Charlie right now, discussing just that. Hopefully he gets back to the point where he's making more consistent contact and doing the things that he's done to be successful so far."

more bunting.

To go back to what you said in the last thread, I think Manuel's incessant "Ryan can hit .300" thing is the problem -- and I love Manuel.

Howard hit .300 that year because he waited for pitches to drive and hit the living shit out of them. Not by making a point to make more contact

I'd like to figure out how to go back and see where the infielders were playing him that year. I don't remember the shift being employed so much on Howard until after 2006. Perhaps selective memory. But his single rate really dropped between 2006 and 2007. If they played him straight up I can see him hitting .300. That's just around 1 more single per week.

Why would they go back totaling him straight up, though?

In 2006, Howard's BABIP on GBs was .251. That's really high, especially for a big guy without a ton of speed. It probably wasnt sustainable anyway, but its REALLY not sustainable once the shift gets employed. Since then his BABIP on GBs has been .179, .173, .196, .217, and (last year) .146. Not surprising since all of his ground balls are basically in the same spot and there's 7 guys over there that the ball needs to get through. He's never adjusted, with the theory being something akin to then the terrorists would win. But the shift costs him 20 points off his BA. That and the fact that since 2006 his HR/FB ratio has roughly dropped in 1/2.


PS. His line drive BABIP has seen a similar decline except for last year when it inexplicably shot up about .150 points.

wouldnt matter if he was a .260 hitter if he stopped swinging at garbage and started drawing more walks.

JFLNYC wrote:Why would they go back totaling him straight up, though?

No reason whatsoever. But people are saying that he can hit .300 because he did it before and there was something about his approach that changed. I think it was mainly the fielding that hurt his overall batting average. If they played him like that for all of 2006 he probably does not hit .300.

well yeah, but part of the thing people miss re his BA is the fact that he's hitting 25 fewer HRs than in 2006. Add 25 more HR's to 2011 when hit .257 and his average would be .298. So, it's not just the shift or BABIP

yes, I understand this is not possible anymore, but you know

Trent Steele wrote:In 2006, Howard's BABIP on GBs was .251. That's really high, especially for a big guy without a ton of speed. It probably wasnt sustainable anyway, but its REALLY not sustainable once the shift gets employed. Since then his BABIP on GBs has been .179, .173, .196, .217, and (last year) .146. Not surprising since all of his ground balls are basically in the same spot and there's 7 guys over there that the ball needs to get through. He's never adjusted, with the theory being something akin to then the terrorists would win. But the shift costs him 20 points off his BA. That and the fact that since 2006 his HR/FB ratio has roughly dropped in 1/2.


PS. His line drive BABIP has seen a similar decline except for last year when it inexplicably shot up about .150 points.

I'm always confused how they determine line drives from ground balls. Lots of those shift outs were not balls that landed in the infield. They would be line drive hits if the shift was not there. Do they just assume that if an infielder fields the ball on a hop or two that it is a ground ball?

If pitchers know that they have a sub .200 hitter if they make him pull the ball on the ground to the right side, that has to affect how they pitch him. Didn't he move closer to the plate last year or something?

FTN wrote:when the luxury tax bumps up after 2013, thats when votto becomes a FA. at that point, howard has 3/75 left on his deal. maybe we can offer him to an AL team and offer to pay half, then give votto 8/500

Reds will need someone to replace Votto with...

I don't know if it's just one thing w Howard. His lefty splits vary from solid to putrid in a given year. His UIBB rate is actually headed in the right direction. His power has been not insignificantly down last two years (esp vs righties where he used to be #1 MLB hitter). He's chasing more but not a ton more, he's just putting balls in play (weakly) more frequently now when he does chase than he did back in the day

I would appreciate it if he took it upon himself to mash more taters next year. Maybe Thome can drop a gem or two one him about pitch selection

bleh wrote:

FTN wrote:when the luxury tax bumps up after 2013, thats when votto becomes a FA. at that point, howard has 3/75 left on his deal. maybe we can offer him to an AL team and offer to pay half, then give votto 8/500

Reds will need someone to replace Votto with...

Valdez. It all makes sense now

JFLNYC wrote:

Grotewold wrote:

JFLNYC wrote:Disagree. Rube got the chance after three years to be more cautious. He wasn't. He assumed all the risk.

He also avoided a whole season of both Rollins and Howard as lame ducks, to the extent that matters, and planned their other moves for a year and half with cost certainty at 1B/cleanup.

What if Howard never hurt his ankle and had two seasons closer to his 2008/2009? What would the plan be now? The cost of re-signing him?

Not sure I'm following you on this, Grote.

I'm saying Amaro didn't assume "all of the risk." If Howard stayed healthy and produced a bit more the past two years, which easily could have happened, we would be in a real tough spot right now.

Again, I'd undo the deal if I could. I just think the criticism goes overboard.

klaw currently frothing at the mouth over the howard questions in his chat

lol.

30 year old CJ Wilson and his TJ waiting to happen delivery signed to a 5 year, 77.5M deal.

CLOSERS NEVER DESERVE BIG MONEY EVER UNLESS THEY'RE ELITE