Obviously, there hope here now is that Howard comes back as strong as possible, and posts around an .830-.850 OPS over the next five seasons to the point where he's overpaid but not killing the team

That might be a stretch, but I don't think it's a pipe dream

Soren wrote:I'm not really sure what the point of comparing his extension to the deals Fielder, Pujols and Votto got. Those guys are on another level.

And got paid like it, raising the bar for everyone else

it just bums me out at this point

Woody wrote:It will always be difficult to not find fault with the timing of the deal. And on the dollar amounts, you can the argue that Ruben wanted to hedge against the Fielder/Pujols contracts going bonkers, but that's a difficult argument to accept b/c those guys are a lot better and Howard was never going to get as much them in an open market. I honestly think Ruben played scared a little on this one and gave in just to get it over with. He gave a free agent deal to Howard when he didn't have to, at a time when Howard didn't have that much leverage.

This and other remarks are sound. But there is a non on-field and cost factor that I think is a BIG part of Howard and Utley. That of the home-grown factor. I think the Phils (hopefully) are thinking about legends and loyalty and brand. Guys my age still have that special feeling for key players part of the successful 70's teams. Schmidt obviously, Carlton obviously, but Bowa, Maddox, Bull, Boone and I think because Howard (and Utley) though a tad older and perhaps from a pure baseball projection standpoint, could see indications of decline - you could get all Money-ball on it and critique the leverage, timing, etc... I think that the Phils also wanted to solidify something with youngsters growing up and identifying with a couple key stars as part of this glory-period of Phillies baseball. Utley was the gritty all-world 2b and Howard the big thumper. The 58hrs still in memory banks. AND - they were part of 2008 WFC.

I think part of playing it the way they did, was that they just decided they wanted to extend the careers of their guys and the fans' guys as Phillies. That Howard Utley Rollins would be the 3 key position players associated with this glory era.

I think there is brand/marketing/and other fan factors associated with the moves to keep those guys.

This year will be telling. If the Phils fall back to 7th best team in MLB or 10th, and struggle - and Utley cannot get back to even shining as a part-time guy - if Howard becomes a .250 hitter with 28hr and struggles to get his OPS to .800 -- then of course, they will have to react.

I hope both guys can get healthy by 2nd half of this season, and pull some fireworks out of their bats for Aug-Sept and hopefully Oct-Nov and I will enjoy glory more with them 2, than new guys if glory is to be had. I think that's part of what Amaro and ownership had in mind along with the economics and baseball metrics.

The Phils are a solid brand now. Winners. And have pitching. It won't be hard to get new bats in time if needed. If Utley just can't perform and Howard is slow to come back this year and can't have a big year in 2013 with long balls at least -- then by 2014 it will be a different reality.

I just want them to take Apr May June in to July to get healthy and hopefully they can find some lightning in a bottle and good health at the end when it will matter.

We don't suck. Yes, now that both are hurt and in decline, on pure cost-benefit analysis - the deals aren't so great - but there were an amalgam of factors. No one could fore-see Utley's knee being that bad and Howard snapping an achilles taking a swing.

Grotewold wrote:

Soren wrote:yea. I love Howard. I defended this deal. It is a lot less $$ than the other deals, but Howard isn't nearly as good as those players, is older and now is hurt.

I'm not asking who's better or which contract you'd rather have right now. I'm asking what Howard would have been worth this winter if he stayed healthy and produced around an .880 OPS, which I think was a reasonable expectation at the time.

5/$100 maybe.

Grotewold wrote:

Soren wrote:yea. I love Howard. I defended this deal. It is a lot less $$ than the other deals, but Howard isn't nearly as good as those players, is older and now is hurt.

I'm not asking who's better or which contract you'd rather have right now. I'm asking what Howard would have been worth this winter if he stayed healthy and produced around an .880 OPS, which I think was a reasonable expectation at the time.

Guys built like Ryan Howard often do NOT age well (i.e. very susceptible to putting on weight and losing mobility), so an .880 OPS more likely than not was not a reasonable expectation at the time.

Philly the Kid wrote:

Woody wrote:It will always be difficult to not find fault with the timing of the deal. And on the dollar amounts, you can the argue that Ruben wanted to hedge against the Fielder/Pujols contracts going bonkers, but that's a difficult argument to accept b/c those guys are a lot better and Howard was never going to get as much them in an open market. I honestly think Ruben played scared a little on this one and gave in just to get it over with. He gave a free agent deal to Howard when he didn't have to, at a time when Howard didn't have that much leverage.

This and other remarks are sound. But there is a non on-field and cost factor that I think is a BIG part of Howard and Utley. That of the home-grown factor. I think the Phils (hopefully) are thinking about legends and loyalty and brand. Guys my age still have that special feeling for key players part of the successful 70's teams. Schmidt obviously, Carlton obviously, but Bowa, Maddox, Bull, Boone and I think because Howard (and Utley) though a tad older and perhaps from a pure baseball projection standpoint, could see indications of decline - you could get all Money-ball on it and critique the leverage, timing, etc... I think that the Phils also wanted to solidify something with youngsters growing up and identifying with a couple key stars as part of this glory-period of Phillies baseball. Utley was the gritty all-world 2b and Howard the big thumper. The 58hrs still in memory banks. AND - they were part of 2008 WFC.

Great points.

RichmondPhilsFan wrote:

lethal wrote:Just imagine if we didn't sign Howard to an extension, then he got injured just as he was about to go into free agency.

Then we'd be players in the Pujols/Fielder race with the Howard money.

I hadn't thought of it that way.

Seriously, fuck you for ruining my afternoon.

Basically if we treated him like Rollins.

Grotewold wrote:

lethal wrote:Just imagine if we didn't sign Howard to an extension, then he got injured just as he was about to go into free agency.

Then we'd be players in the Pujols/Fielder race with the Howard money.

I highly doubt we would have gotten Pujols. Not sure 10 years for either him or Fielder is realistic for an NL team, either.

But while that's the way it played out, it wasn't the most likely scenario. What if Howard had kept up his 2009 production, or even close (adjusted for league-wide declines)? What would we have had to give him this offseason?

Opening Day is tomorrow, and we're rehashing the Howard deal one more time?

And people think I'm negative.

i don't know if you saw but a highly relevant, comparable deal was just signed the other day by an elite National League first basemen in the same off-season Ryan Howard would have been a free agent along with Albert Pujols and Prince Fielder, two other elite National League first basemen who signed extremely large deals

Barry Jive wrote:i don't know if you saw but a highly relevant, comparable deal was just signed the other day by an elite National League first basemen in the same off-season Ryan Howard would have been a free agent along with Albert Pujols and Prince Fielder, two other elite National League first basemen who signed extremely large deals

I saw it. Who cares? Howard is our guy. Let's hope he gets healthy quickly, and for God's sake let's quit bitching we root for a team that has the resources to lock up its best players with regularity. That fact alone means not all contracts will be great, but the alternstive - which we all lived through - is far worse.

Opening Day. Positivity. It's not your money. Don't sweat it.

actually thought that this would be a good time to bring it back up. a nice hind sight retrospective look at how things actually went down. its not like anyone is really flipping out either. we've all come to grips with how bad it is.

mozartpc27 wrote:

Barry Jive wrote:i don't know if you saw but a highly relevant, comparable deal was just signed the other day by an elite National League first basemen in the same off-season Ryan Howard would have been a free agent along with Albert Pujols and Prince Fielder, two other elite National League first basemen who signed extremely large deals

I saw it. Who cares? Howard is our guy. Let's hope he gets healthy quickly, and for God's sake let's quit bitching we root for a team that has the resources to lock up its best players with regularity. That fact alone means not all contracts will be great, but the alternstive - which we all lived through - is far worse.

Opening Day. Positivity. It's not your money. Don't sweat it.

It is possible to argue sports without getting all emotional about stuff. I can enjoy the Phillies and talk about how dumb the contract is at the same time. It's also worth reviewing because holy crap did you see the deal Votto got? It's an insanely large amount of money

also "it's not your money" is dumb as hell

if these TV deals increase revenue across the board like many are not projecting this contract won't look bad historically speaking. it will feel kinda sorta painful and bad in real time though.

If the Phillies win even 1 more World Series with Ryan Howard as a starter no one will care about the contract.

I'd like to believe that but I can't

Barry Jive wrote:I'd like to believe that but I can't

Partially agree. I can certainly see the Phillies winning another WS with Howard as the starter, but I doubt he plays a significant role. If they win, it will be due to pitching, and I'd find it hard to forget Howard's clusterfuck of a contract simply because he starts and doesn't suck.

If the Phillies win the World Series this year with Ryan Howard contributing, he'll still have four more years on the contract. If he sucks for the last two of them, it will get ugly.

Only 809 games to go! (+playoffs)

can we all just agree that its a great thing that MLB doesnt have a salary cap