Benny Lava wrote:can we all just agree that its a great thing that MLB doesnt have a salary cap

Rev_Beezer wrote:Actually, I have a whole room in my house that, although miniscule, tells me that at least .00000000000000187% of it IS my money.

phatj wrote:I wasn't clear on what he was even responding to. Now I see it was mozart/Barry Jive.

Anyway, it doesn't work like that. Beez is a customer of the Phillies. He doesn't get to dictate how the Phillies spend their money any more than he gets to dictate how Acme spends theirs.

Woody wrote:I sure hope they keep packing that stadium, um, in perpetuity

joe table wrote:We've still got T Mac though. And he isn't going anywhere

The Savior wrote:yeah, that part i said is probably off. what i really meant to say was "ryan #$!&@ howard is never going to be bad and therefore stop worrying".

Ace Rothstein wrote:

joe table wrote:Re: "Howard non-elite status"

That is fine if you are talking about overall value of all position players, but if that is the frame of the analysis, there are few elite 1Bmen in baseball.

A lot of 1B had great years last year, better than Ryan's, but not all of them can match his track record as a consistent producer

For example, Pena and Gonzalez had probably each been more productive since 08, but have weaker track records. Can they maintain their performance as top 7 1Bmen? (My guess: Gonzalez yes, Pena, not so sure)

Some other guys who were really good last year are falling deeper in to their postpeak/injury prone years, like Lee and Berkman. I don't think you can put them ahead of Howard in terms of looking forward (although Berkman has pretty much always been a better player in the past) Helton already fell off one cliff, although he is still somewhat productive. Konerko goes here too, even though he's had an hot start

Dunn has a comparable bat but is at least a -10, -15 run glove. Morneau has really never been as good as Ryan in the past (at his very best he's been equal), although he is having fantastic start so far. Still, I don't regard him as on Howard's level. Morales looks like a really good, solid player, but with his walk rate even worse than Howard's and platoon issues of his own (inferior as a RH better), he's can't be regarded as clearly better either

So what does that leave in terms of guys who currently are--and are likely to continue to be-- better players than Ryan?

Elite class, NQA:

Pujols

Probably better, but are they a lock for elite in a given year?

Fielder- He was an elite player in 2009. He'll remain elite though only if he doesn't eat himself out of the league by 30. He's been a better offensive player since 07 with better overall offensive package (good vs LHP, more walks, fewer Ks, only guy who is probably on an even footing w/power), but the dude's legitimately obese. And it's not like he's been .415 wOBA every year, he had a down 08 in which he was not a top 50 player and has had a slowish start this year

Teix- you have to favor him slightly, because even though his stronger side (vRHP) is not as strong has Howard vs RHP, he is still productive enough as a RHB to keep his OBP up above Howard's level. Again is he THAT much better though (ie, is he a year in, year out top 10 MLB player?). Is he truly elite if Howard is not?

Ad. Gonzalez- talked about him above. A better player right now, great glove, but does that absurd walk rate go away when he gets out of the SD lineup?

If he's walking at 10% on the Red Sox instead of 15-18% like he is now, he goes right back to neck and neck with Ryan. He has just as serious a platoon issue as Howard does for his career too (although he's improved over time while Ryan's regressed). So again, is he a top 10, elite guy?

Votto- I love this guy, he has had only the one elite full year but he's backed it up so far in 2010 and is the total package offensively (super high walk rate, hit for average, hit lefties, power, sneaky base stealer). I'm sold on him as a .400 wOBA player, although he's had some injury issues thus far

Cabrera- consistently a .390ish wOBA bat with average, contact, power, walk ability. Also younger and he's made himself into a better 1B. Is probably a safer bet moving forward in terms of maintaining that level of production, but he's also never put up a year like Ryan at his best. Until Ryan ages, it's unlikely he'll be dramatically better, IMO. So again, not an huge cut above Ryan Howard

Youkilis I'll leave out because he probably goes back to 3B eventually, but as a 1Bman he belongs in this group too

I guess my conclusion is if we want to say Howard is not elite right now, that doesn't should offend anyone. The standard for an elite, top 5-10 MLB player at the 1B position is incredibly high. On any given year you can pencil in a group of 1 in Pujols, and on certain years guys like Ryan (06), Fielder (09), Votto (09), Adrian (09), Teix (08), Cabrera/Morneau (10) will have giant years. So could we do better than Ryan? Yes. I don't think it would be as easy to find a comparable player at a far lower cost as some may make it out to be, though

Trent Steele wrote:joe, how does your analysis account for the fact that Howard blows and makes a billion dollars per year? pls advise. Thanks.

Trent Steele wrote:My feelings on thIs are well known. I would have more respect for rube if had blown $150m on hookers and blow. Dont kid yourself and try to defend it. Deep down you know Howard is vastly overrated and this is one of the worst signings ever.

Monkeyboy wrote:

Bakestar wrote:

Brantt wrote:
Missanelli has a master's degree and a law degree. He also passed the bar exam and was a practicing lawyer before deciding to get into sports journalism.

To call him stupid is, well, stupid.

All due respect, I'm a lawyer and I know plenty of lawyers who are stupid, anti-intellectual dickwipers.

Is your penis shrinking or something? How many people do you feel the need to call stupid in one week? If you need to make yourself feel better, try drugs or hire a hooker or something. Leave everyone else out of your mess.

ek wrote:

Woody wrote:It's fine if they want to extend Howard. He should be a Phillie forever. But why now? And why so much? What was Howard's side's leverage in this negotiation? He's already signed through next season. Why not at least wait until this off-season? Was Amaro just terrified of the open market bidding without thinking it all through? There are only a finite number of teams that can blow $20MM on a first baseman/future DH.

I just don't see the upside of doing this now, at such huge and unprecedented numbers. It definitely looks like Amaro got bent over on this one, and the buyout was just shoved in there at the last minute to serve as the ball gag

hah