Re: "Howard non-elite status"

That is fine if you are talking about overall value of all position players, but if that is the frame of the analysis, there are few elite 1Bmen in baseball.

A lot of 1B had great years last year, better than Ryan's, but not all of them can match his track record as a consistent producer

For example, Pena and Gonzalez had probably each been more productive since 08, but have weaker track records. Can they maintain their performance as top 7 1Bmen? (My guess: Gonzalez yes, Pena, not so sure)

Some other guys who were really good last year are falling deeper in to their postpeak/injury prone years, like Lee and Berkman. I don't think you can put them ahead of Howard in terms of looking forward (although Berkman has pretty much always been a better player in the past) Helton already fell off one cliff, although he is still somewhat productive. Konerko goes here too, even though he's had an hot start

Dunn has a comparable bat but is at least a -10, -15 run glove. Morneau has really never been as good as Ryan in the past (at his very best he's been equal), although he is having fantastic start so far. Still, I don't regard him as on Howard's level. Morales looks like a really good, solid player, but with his walk rate even worse than Howard's and platoon issues of his own (inferior as a RH better), he's can't be regarded as clearly better either

So what does that leave in terms of guys who currently are--and are likely to continue to be-- better players than Ryan?

Elite class, NQA:

Pujols

Probably better, but are they a lock for elite in a given year?

Fielder- He was an elite player in 2009. He'll remain elite though only if he doesn't eat himself out of the league by 30. He's been a better offensive player since 07 with better overall offensive package (good vs LHP, more walks, fewer Ks, only guy who is probably on an even footing w/power), but the dude's legitimately obese. And it's not like he's been .415 wOBA every year, he had a down 08 in which he was not a top 50 player and has had a slowish start this year

Teix- you have to favor him slightly, because even though his stronger side (vRHP) is not as strong has Howard vs RHP, he is still productive enough as a RHB to keep his OBP up above Howard's level. Again is he THAT much better though (ie, is he a year in, year out top 10 MLB player?). Is he truly elite if Howard is not?

Ad. Gonzalez- talked about him above. A better player right now, great glove, but does that absurd walk rate go away when he gets out of the SD lineup?

If he's walking at 10% on the Red Sox instead of 15-18% like he is now, he goes right back to neck and neck with Ryan. He has just as serious a platoon issue as Howard does for his career too (although he's improved over time while Ryan's regressed). So again, is he a top 10, elite guy?

Votto- I love this guy, he has had only the one elite full year but he's backed it up so far in 2010 and is the total package offensively (super high walk rate, hit for average, hit lefties, power, sneaky base stealer). I'm sold on him as a .400 wOBA player, although he's had some injury issues thus far

Cabrera- consistently a .390ish wOBA bat with average, contact, power, walk ability. Also younger and he's made himself into a better 1B. Is probably a safer bet moving forward in terms of maintaining that level of production, but he's also never put up a year like Ryan at his best. Until Ryan ages, it's unlikely he'll be dramatically better, IMO. So again, not an huge cut above Ryan Howard

Youkilis I'll leave out because he probably goes back to 3B eventually, but as a 1Bman he belongs in this group too

I guess my conclusion is if we want to say Howard is not elite right now, that doesn't should offend anyone. The standard for an elite, top 5-10 MLB player at the 1B position is incredibly high. On any given year you can pencil in a group of 1 in Pujols, and on certain years guys like Ryan (06), Fielder (09), Votto (09), Adrian (09), Teix (08), Cabrera/Morneau (10) will have giant years. So could we do better than Ryan? Yes. I don't think it would be as easy to find a comparable player at a far lower cost as some may make it out to be, though

And another thing about Ryan's contract being preposterous vs the 1B market/driving up prices in for other soon to be FAs vs where that market would have otherwise been.....keep hearing this too "well if you're Fielder's agent, this the most incredible thing ever!!!"

Does anyone really think that if Ryan hadn't signed, and the Red Sox traded for Gonzalez or Fielder in three weeks, whichever player got moved would not have gotten a contract extension rivaling, if not exceeding, Teixiera's 8-180 contract?

Regardless of the order of their deals, Fielder, Gonzalez, Howard were all always going to get paid tons of money, more money than they are objectively worth relative to top players at other positions with more overall value like Utley, Hanley, etc.

Teix's 8-180 at age 29 was not blown out of the water by Ryan's 5-125 at age 30, which really made his overall deal 7-164 with an option for 8-177. Teix's is essentially still the top of the market, Howard's deal was a reaction to his big new market-setting deal. They tweaking it it make the AAV look better on the extension years, but he didn't even really get a better overall deal than Teix did

It was an unnecessary risk for the Phillies but everyone who thinks it's going to dramatically change the face of the 1B FA market is mistaken, IMO. It didn't reach a drastically new market level like, say, his Super 2 arb award did or CC's contract did

joe table wrote:Re: "Howard non-elite status"

That is fine if you are talking about overall value of all position players, but if that is the frame of the analysis, there are few elite 1Bmen in baseball.

I'm not sure why you'd want to limit the analysis to 1Bs only. There aren't many elite players at any position.

joe, how does your analysis account for the fact that Howard blows and makes a billion dollars per year? pls advise. Thanks.

I think I forgot to carry a one somewhere. Disregard. Is Kip Wells still on the table?

What the hell happened to him? Through just about this many PA last year, he had 13 2B, 2 3B, and 14 HR. This year, he has 7, 1, and 8.

philliesphhan wrote:What the hell happened to him? Through just about this many PA last year, he had 13 2B, 2 3B, and 14 HR. This year, he has 7, 1, and 8.

he got paid!

If Ryan Howard manages 40+ hrs in 4 of the next 5 seasons, and doesn't drop to Dave Kingman overall levels -- most will say he "paid off". Not enough fans or media using advanced metrics and this stuff is tricky. He's now been in back-to-back WS. I hope Ryan has one more monster year in him maybe 50hr OPS high 9's or over 10 ... but at this point now, as long as he can be reliable for his 40 110, OPS in the high 8's or low 9's BA doesn't go below .270 -- he'll be what they expected. Is that elite? Of course not... is it worth 25mil a year? No way. But, this is how it's done. When he won that arbitration I knew we were paying this or losing him.

I appreciate he got his weight down and at least seems to be trying to avoid a sharo sudden decline and getting fat.

he has more ground ball singles to left this year, so there's that...

To be fair to Howard his OBP is .003 higher than Ibanez's. Howard's is .347. Ibanez's is .344

Back when he used to hit homefuns, Howard rarely ever pulled the ball outta the park. Is this just his swing timing? I know he makes the effort to keep his hands back through the zone, but anything he pulls is usually smoked on the ground to the shift in short right. You'd think he'd unleash every once in a while down the line, but it seems like anything he 's locked in for ends up getting hit out to deep center or at best the alley. Bat speed? swing mechanics?

Yes, it's timing. He needs to keep his weight back and let the ball get bit deeper in the strike zone. Right now he's rolling over and taking the ball too far out front (hence the hooking GBs), and when he does keep his hands back enough to go oppo, his weight has shifted forward prematurely so he's missing his normal lower body rotation. I am certain he knows all this, it's the type of thing that builds on itself though because pressing and being overaggressive to try to really drive the ball just exacerbates the causes of the problems

And as crappy as he's been, mechanically Werth and Utley have been worse. Werth has been overstriding/lunging while also getting very long to the ball with his hands. Utley has been way late getting his front foot down, which also cuts off his lower body. Perfect storm of mid-lineup slump

Im most worried by his % of swings at pitches out of the zone.

From 2006 till 2009, his numbers were

25.6%
25.8%
26.7%
27.3%

This year, its 32.5%

He swings at so many bad pitches, and he gets himself out so much more than the other team getting him out. Its like he just can't help himself, even when he knows that 97% of the pitchers he faces are going to do their best to throw him nothing but garbage.

I really think someone has convinced him that his job isn't to draw walks, its to drive in runs by approaching AB's like Vlad Guerrero and swinging at anything/everything.

I agree the increase in swinging at crap is not encouraging, but lately he's been drawing walks at a better rate. 5 unintentional BBs in the last 38 PAs he's been pitched to

My feelings on thIs are well known. I would have more respect for rube if had blown $150m on hookers and blow. Dont kid yourself and try to defend it. Deep down you know Howard is vastly overrated and this is one of the worst signings ever.

JackieTreehorn wrote:Im most worried by his % of swings at pitches out of the zone.

From 2006 till 2009, his numbers were

25.6%
25.8%
26.7%
27.3%

This year, its 32.5%

He swings at so many bad pitches, and he gets himself out so much more than the other team getting him out. Its like he just can't help himself, even when he knows that 97% of the pitchers he faces are going to do their best to throw him nothing but garbage.

I really think someone has convinced him that his job isn't to draw walks, its to drive in runs by approaching AB's like Vlad Guerrero and swinging at anything/everything.

Spot on analysis. My take:

Howard’s slump is concerning since he has been turned into a singles hitter. 72% of his hits are singles compared to 50% last year and 49% in 2008. Additionally, his walk rate is 3% lower and he is hitting 7.5% more ground balls and 7% fewer fly balls. More ground balls means more singles and fewer fly balls means fewer doubles and home runs. This could be [read: is] a function of how opposing pitchers are going after Howard as he has seen lefties in 35% of his PA this year and has seen even fewer pitches in the strike zone than he did last year, 45% to 42%.

It doesn't sound as sexy as a bunch of doomsday numbers (which bother me, don't get me wrong), but I think the most important part of Floppy's post is the last part:

I really think someone has convinced him that his job isn't to draw walks, its to drive in runs by approaching AB's like Vlad Guerrero and swinging at anything/everything.

The reason I hold out hope is that with the right coaching or approach he can turn this around. In every offseason he's worked his ass off on eliminating his weaknesses--weight, defense, speed. Granted, we haven't seen the fruits of that labor as much as we'd like, and his throwing arm still isn't gold glovely, but he's definitely shown at least some marginal improvement in those areas.

If the Phillies can recognize where his game has gone sour and approach it properly with Charlie Manuel and Milt Thompson, there's still hope. There's a reason projections aren't always right. People change and so do ballplayers. Obviously he doesn't need a complete overhaul right now, but I'm confident he'll make the proper adjustments before it gets to that point. Because he's a smart guy.

To be honest, if you put a gun to my head and told me I could have Howard or Adam LaRoche for 145 million less dollars, I'd pick LaRoche.

HillMD wrote:To be honest, if you put a gun to my head and told me I could have Howard or Adam LaRoche for 145 million less dollars, I'd pick LaRoche.

The Phillies used to spend less money and they used to have Adam LaRoche at 1B (Rico, TLee, etc) and October was a time for fishing, golf and watching the post-season on TV.

Buzhardt wrote:

HillMD wrote:To be honest, if you put a gun to my head and told me I could have Howard or Adam LaRoche for 145 million less dollars, I'd pick LaRoche.

The Phillies used to spend less money and they used to have Adam LaRoche at 1B (Rico, TLee, etc) and October was a time for fishing, golf and watching the post-season on TV.

This.