Yes. It was such a good sample size that both Joe Sheehan AND Keith Law thought it merited my attention on teh twitter.

Dan Rosenheck in the New York times today (and BBTF other times) doesn't like it one bit.

Despite those statistics, Howard is not part of the game’s elite. Although there is no doubting his power, his home run output is helped by his stadium. According to ESPN.com, 16 percent more home runs were hit in games played at Philadelphia’s Citizens Bank Park than in the Phillies’ road games from 2006 to 2009.

Similarly, Howard’s mammoth R.B.I. totals stem from the on-base skills of the batters preceding him. ...

Howard does no such favors for the players hitting behind him. During his first two full seasons, he was usually followed in the Phillies’ lineup by the punchless Aaron Rowand, leading to a large number of intentional walks. But once the team began putting sluggers in the fifth slot — Pat Burrell in 2008, and a mix of Jayson Werth and Raul Ibanez in 2009 — Howard’s free passes plummeted, taking his on-base percentage with them.

his fielding is merely average, and calling him a runner would be generous. According to Baseball Prospectus, he has cost the Phillies 15 runs on the bases over the last four years, the ninth-worst total in the game.

Because of these liabilities, Howard resides in the majors’ second tier

Howard’s list of most similar players on Baseball-Reference.com includes a number of cautionary tales, including Mo Vaughn, Travis Hafner, David Ortiz, Richie Sexson, Cecil Fielder and John Jaha of recent vintage, as well as throwbacks like Jim Gentile and Dick Stuart. None of them had a valuable season after age 33, and most flamed out well before that.

Shortly after the deal was announced, Philadelphia’s general manager, Ruben Amaro Jr., said Howard “kind of set the market for himself.” When a general manager admits he has let players set their own market, it may be time to get into the market for a new general manager.

I haven't even posted my opinion in this thread since "I like Howard but that's an awful lot of money for an awfully long time" isn't particularly interesting and has been said better by lots of others. This though, just seems a lazy kitchen-sink criticism without any real attempt to look at Howard as an individual player, or to question some of the assumptions used, the validity of which are questionable.

Yes, I don't like the body type arguments -- they're mostly lazy, one-size-fits-all assumptions. Howard is a big fella, but I don't think his body type is comparable to Cecil Fielder or John Jaha or Travis Hafner.

CrashburnAlley wrote:Yes, I don't like the body type arguments -- they're mostly lazy, one-size-fits-all assumptions. Howard is a big fella, but I don't think his body type is comparable to Cecil Fielder or John Jaha or Travis Hafner.

Also, I think it is pretty clear that Hafner was on steriods.

I really am sick of the people claiming that Howard will either become too fat to play up to the money he's paid or that he'll be a defensive liability down the line.

In case Sheehan and Law haven't noticed, Ryan Howard has trimmed down significantly over the past two seasons. Also, he never really WAS a fatass like Ortiz, so that comparison is invalid as-is.

Look at someone like Pablo Sandoval or Prince Fielder and then look at Howard. There is no comparison in the weight department.

The defensive liability stuff is total crap as well. Howard has greatly improved his defense on the bag in recent months (almost a year at least) as well.


Rather than watching Howard play and keeping optimistic about his continued success, they just shout "ZOMG TEH NUMBERS SAY THAT RYAN HOWADR IS 2 FAT TO PLAY TIL 2016 ROFLROFLROFL!!!!!!!111111! SABRSABRSABRSABR!"

CrashburnAlley wrote:Yes, I don't like the body type arguments -- they're mostly lazy, one-size-fits-all assumptions. Howard is a big fella, but I don't think his body type is comparable to Cecil Fielder or John Jaha or Travis Hafner.

This is particularly inane since Jaha, Stuart and Hafner are career comps, not age comps. His through age 29 comps have a number of guys sort of like this, but also people like McCovey, Delgado, McGriff and McGwire who had very successful seasons in their late 30s, although I can understand why McGwire might not be a great consolation.

RoboticParadox wrote:Rather than watching Howard play and keeping optimistic about his continued success, they just shout "ZOMG TEH NUMBERS SAY THAT RYAN HOWADR IS 2 FAT TO PLAY TIL 2016 ROFLROFLROFL!!!!!!!111111! SABRSABRSABRSABR!"

You have to understand where they're coming from, though. For most players, there existed multiple players similar in some sort of fashion whether by position, production, career length, etc. Howard simply presents a unique case where qualitative information has more weight in the discussion than it normally does.

Most of the time, Law and others are going to be spot on in comparing a player as Howard has been. This is just one particular case where it's not so cut-and-dry.

Grotewold wrote:From new Ken Rosenthal article. Amaro:

“The sabermetricians are welcome to have their opinions about our business; however, I choose to ignore their opinions."

http://msn.foxsports.com/mlb/story/Ryan ... -GM-043010

Oh sit

Good article. More and more (and I'm finding this not just in baseball), what I'm wanting from journalists/analysts with "access" is their more or less unedited interviews with decision-makers. I'd rather hear what Smuggles has to say for myself and draw my own opinions than sit through Rosenthal's, or most others'.

As others here have implied, I think part of what happened here is Amaro's assertion (which I agree with) that he and the Phillies have superior information to that of Joe Sheehan and affiliated fat fucking losers. Howard got paid before the 2009 season, and came back in much better shape and put up better numbers than he had since '06. There's no way the Phils would have made this commitment absent what he showed them after getting his three-year, $54 million extension.

And the Ortiz comp is especially silly since we know he took PEDs.

Were I the GM, I'm pretty sure I wouldn't have done a five-year deal. But it's easily enough defended even before you consider the likelihood that at least two of Pujols, Gonzalez and Fielder won't even get to free agency after 2011, and that all three will get comparable or richer deals when all's said and done.

CrashburnAlley wrote:

RoboticParadox wrote:Rather than watching Howard play and keeping optimistic about his continued success, they just shout "ZOMG TEH NUMBERS SAY THAT RYAN HOWADR IS 2 FAT TO PLAY TIL 2016 ROFLROFLROFL!!!!!!!111111! SABRSABRSABRSABR!"

You have to understand where they're coming from, though. For most players, there existed multiple players similar in some sort of fashion whether by position, production, career length, etc. Howard simply presents a unique case where qualitative information has more weight in the discussion than it normally does.

Most of the time, Law and others are going to be spot on in comparing a player as Howard has been. This is just one particular case where it's not so cut-and-dry.

Oh, I do, and I generally agree with the conclusions- I hope they don't really apply to Howard, but I think there's a strong possibility they do. I read the article out of interest in what he says, not to pick it apart. But i think in the end it's so lazy and full of holes that it doesn't make it's case very well and allows plenty of openings to call this set of reasoning into question. Which is more annoying to me than being wrong since it makes it harder for people with valid arguments to have them accepted.

Spending his $$$$$

Whatever that is it's hand-stitched.

It's on the inside of his jacket.

I think phatj meant that the whole garment was hand-stitched?

From the Rosenheck article:

Despite those statistics, Howard is not part of the game’s elite.

You could probably just stop reading right there. If that is his premise, I have no interest in what else he has to say because it is likely NY slanted crap.

swishnicholson wrote:Dan Rosenheck in the New York times today (and BBTF other times) doesn't like it one bit.

Despite those statistics, Howard is not part of the game’s elite. Although there is no doubting his power, his home run output is helped by his stadium. According to ESPN.com, 16 percent more home runs were hit in games played at Philadelphia’s Citizens Bank Park than in the Phillies’ road games from 2006 to 2009.

Similarly, Howard’s mammoth R.B.I. totals stem from the on-base skills of the batters preceding him. ...

Howard does no such favors for the players hitting behind him. During his first two full seasons, he was usually followed in the Phillies’ lineup by the punchless Aaron Rowand, leading to a large number of intentional walks. But once the team began putting sluggers in the fifth slot — Pat Burrell in 2008, and a mix of Jayson Werth and Raul Ibanez in 2009 — Howard’s free passes plummeted, taking his on-base percentage with them.

52% of Howard's career home runs have come on the road. So the overall CBP trend isn't showing up/inflating his actual performance. Punchless Aaron Rowand was .309/.374/.515 in 2007, higher than Burrell's 08 OPS or Werth's 09 OPS.

It's like he taking a very simple argument to make, waiting until dozens of others have already made said argument, and then trying his hardest to self-handicap with retarded inaccurate premises

traderdave wrote:From the Rosenheck article:

Despite those statistics, Howard is not part of the game’s elite.

You could probably just stop reading right there. If that is his premise, I have no interest in what else he has to say because it is likely NY slanted crap.

See, if he had stopped writing there, he would have been fine. Howard isn't really an elite player (aside from home runs) and hasn't been one since 2006. He's a one-trick pony whose one trick is off-the-charts good, but there are too many holes in his overall game to call him elite.

Currently on pace for about 30 homers and 50 walks.

Woody wrote:Currently on pace for about 30 homers and 50 walks.

and lead the team in hits

And only batting .299 to show for it because he swings at everything, yes.

Woody wrote:And only batting .299 to show for it because he swings at everything, yes.

what a wonderful guy