Seeing how Law and Neyer hate the Phillies, hate Howard, and hate the deal, this can only lead me to believe that its a nice move.

Soren wrote:Housh is officially the coolest internet person I know

Especially if any of those adventures were about GI Joe on a 3 day pass in Thailand.

momadance wrote:Seeing how Law and Neyer hate the Phillies, hate Howard, and hate the deal, this can only lead me to believe that its a nice move.

It's funny because every fan of every team accuses Law and Neyer of being biased against their team (except the Jays and Royals, respectively). I can't imagine what bone they would have to pick with the Phillies and/or the fans to make them subject the integrity of their work for snide remarks or overt criticism.

MattS wrote:

Shore wrote:At this point, I'm not sure what's more predictable - Sheehan crapping on the Phillies, or MattS giving Amaro a blumpkin.
\

I've been positive on more of his moves than negative. This deal I think is reasonable but not spectacular. It's probably a little high but it's not a disaster. I'm not overwhelming in favor of his moves, but I've made counterpoints to deals that people hated on too hard.

Do you consider it your job to essentially lean against the wind? Defend a deal that everything thinks is bad, or offer criticism of a deal that everyone thinks is a slam dunk?

Hypothetical: Kevin Youkilis is Howard's age (older by 8 months), can play 3B as well as an above-average 1B, and has outperformed Howard according to WAR in the last couple years. He is signed through 2012. What would be your reaction if the Red Sox signed him to an extension that pays him $20M in 2013, and $25M in years 2014 through 2016, with a $23M option ($10M buyout) in 2017? How about if you slash those numbers 20% (4 year $76M extension with $18M option and $8M buyout)?

RY RY MASH TATERS

Let's definitely press Matt's feet to the fire for daring to defend some of the moves the Phillies have made during their recent domination of the National League.

Grotewold wrote:2011: Rollins, Polanco, Utley, Howard, Werth, Ibanez (Victorino?)

2012: Polanco, Utley, Howard, Werth

2013, 2014: Utley, Howard, Werth

Why couldn't this work financially, mixing in Brown and Gillies or Gose?

Rollins is the other wild card, but I don't think that would make or break it.

?

Grotewold wrote:Let's definitely press Matt's feet to the fire for daring to defend some of the moves the Phillies have made during their recent domination of the National League.

No, I'm wondering if that's how he sees his role. That's fine, and it makes for interesting writing.

Werthless wrote:

MattS wrote:

Shore wrote:At this point, I'm not sure what's more predictable - Sheehan crapping on the Phillies, or MattS giving Amaro a blumpkin.
\

I've been positive on more of his moves than negative. This deal I think is reasonable but not spectacular. It's probably a little high but it's not a disaster. I'm not overwhelming in favor of his moves, but I've made counterpoints to deals that people hated on too hard.

Do you consider it your job to essentially lean against the wind? Defend a deal that everything thinks is bad, or offer criticism of a deal that everyone thinks is a slam dunk?

Hypothetical: Kevin Youkilis is Howard's age (older by 8 months), can play 3B as well as an above-average 1B, and has outperformed Howard according to WAR in the last couple years. He is signed through 2012. What would be your reaction if the Red Sox signed him to an extension that pays him $20M in 2013, and $25M in years 2014 through 2016, with a $23M option ($10M buyout) in 2017? How about if you slash those numbers 20% (4 year $76M extension with $18M option and $8M buyout)?

I'd probably like the Youkilis deal but I would need to do way more analysis to form an opinion.

I don't really see my role as a contrarian. Most of it is that I am much more likely to write about something where my point of view is unique than where my point of view is what everyone else already wrote. If I had the ability to turn things around more quickly, I'd probably have more articles that people agreed with. But I don't always have the opportunity to do that, and I don't like regurgitating the same ideas.

Also, I think what's different about my perspective is that I'm an economist. Most sabermetric writers seem to have computer science or programming or maybe engineering backgrounds which makes sense because that's who has access to do the data analysis in their spare time. If I hadn't had a couple lulls in grad school where I had to wait on other things, and if I didn't have people willing to give me data like Eric Seidman did before I joined BP, I would never have had the time to learn sabermetrics. It's much easier for people with computer backgrounds and as a result, I think you get a lot of analysis that looks like it was written by programmers. Over time as data access improves, you'll probably see more social science and business perspectives on sabermetrics, and that will probably create less of an appearance of groupthink.

in other words youre just as nerdy as the rest of em.

CalvinBall wrote:in other words youre just as nerdy as the rest of em.

MattS wrote:as a result, I think you get a lot of analysis that looks like it was written by programmers. Over time as data access improves, you'll probably see more social science and business perspectives on sabermetrics, and that will probably create less of an appearance of groupthink.

Don't miss it Calvin, this is a nuanced, qualitative observation that definitely clarifies for some of us where Matt is coming from and portends some good stuff to look forward to from his corner (is a corner you're in, Matt?).

Anyway, when Werthless goes all Socratic on anyone, you know you're getting somewhere

CrashburnAlley wrote:

momadance wrote:Seeing how Law and Neyer hate the Phillies, hate Howard, and hate the deal, this can only lead me to believe that its a nice move.

It's funny because every fan of every team accuses Law and Neyer of being biased against their team (except the Jays and Royals, respectively). I can't imagine what bone they would have to pick with the Phillies and/or the fans to make them subject the integrity of their work for snide remarks or overt criticism.

Maybe they just hate life. It's their "holier than though" attitude. Between the two of them I pretty sure they believe they're the smartest people in baseball. Law is back on his "platoon player" soapbox again.

Keith Law wrote:My take on the comical Ryan Howard extension on Rumor Central, for Insiders: http://klaw.me/br1SD6 (Happiest man in MLB: A. Pujols.)

@cseguin03 That's a good point. If you're paying him $25MM per to hit RHP, how much do you pay his platoon caddy?

Damn, he called it comical.

Howard did have the worst platoon split of any of the top 1Bs by far last year. However, if Law's saying this now, I hope he's saying it about Adrian Gonzalez too when he gets paid 100+, because he has very similar career numbers vs lefties

Also he's being slightly inconsistent in this case by weighing the 09 numbers (653 OPS vs LHP) more than the career numbers (750 OPS vs LHP), because when the Ibanez deal went down which he also hated, he said "forget his good performance vs LHP the last two seasons, look at his career splits"

All that being said, while the guy loves making snide, d*ckish comments about people and often embellishes his arguments, he's rarely flat out wrong IMO

Coincidentally Law's mom just came down with a stack of comics

Salisbury just said he thinks there's still a chance with Werth, assuming he doesn't require something crazy like 7/120MM

Law writes to get attention. He admits it. I respect that he admits it. He knows busting the chops of Phillie fans gets him a lot of attention. He's certainly smart. His comments are often over the top. I'll read his comments when they're posted here but I'm not sure who he even writes for (ESPN? -- I don't go there because I'm not paying for the insider stuff that is mostly crap). It's best to just consider the source when reading him I believe -- he makes some good points.

Neyer I don't know all that much about. I like his books. He used to be a James assistant, right? I don't see a particular bias against the Phils but I'm not looking for one either. I suspect some of his writing style is also meant to get attention although he doesn't admit it as readily as Law I guess.

Regardless of what Law said, I'm surprised this thread hasn't focused more on Pujols, Fielder, etc. Zolecki's first reaction was along the lines of, we just bankrupted one of our main NL rivals (Cardinals).

I think we have to evaluate the Howard deal in context of the NL universe, and even though the Phils probably overpaid, that means others will have to pony up in future years as well.

(Now obviously if Howard doesn't perform, then those rivals will be Laroching and Suppaning all the way to the pennant while we watch him rack up a thousand more Ks in a Phillies uniform.)

UPDATE: Jayson Werth agrees to a 4-year, 45M contract extension after Ryan Howard gives him a pony, a "water pipe", and $1000 in Subway gift cards.

Just saw that on MLB trade rumors