So, when do they announce the implementation of the PH in the NL?

BigEd76 wrote:Casey Close:

"The reason he felt the time was right was he loves his teammates, he loves the city. He wanted to be a part of something special for a long time to come."

...as long as he got paid a massive salary to do so.

I mean, I don't begrudge Howard the money, but let's not make this out as though he gave the Phillies any sort of hometown discount. This was a market value deal, signed 1.5 years before he hit free agency.

Almost every game, I think

FTN wrote:2. Building on #1, the Phillies had to have figured out something if Howard left via free agency. Option 1 was trading for Adrian Gonzalez, and then paying him $25M per year. Option 2 was signing Prince Fielder on the open market. What would the market be by then? What if the Cardinals had given Pujols a 6/210M deal? Howard would have surely gotten 5/145. Fielder, because he's younger, might have gotten 8/215. There is no discount here. Its a ton of money. But there wouldn't have been a discount on the free agent market either. Agents understand that the Phillies would have had to get a marquee name to replace Howard at 1B if they let him go. There wouldn't have likely been any bargains. Maybe you can sign a good hitter at 5/85 to play 1B, but will he have produced as much as Howard?

I'm sorry, but I don't see that as true. You don't have to go out and sign a massive big name for 1B if Howard leaves after 2011. There would be nothing wrong with signing a more average 1B for a cheaper price or trading for a 1B prospect to play there and using the"Howard money" to improve elsewhere instead -- like LF for example, since Raul would leave at the same time. Heck, they can take that money and sign a stud starter instead if they felt the offense was "strong enough" (and if they retained Werth after 2010, I could see the point of view).

No one knows how the market will end up playing out, but I don't like the idea of being so limited in the options. There's always some flexibility and the Phillies didn't necessarily have to go into 2012 with a "stud" 1B with a massive salary to be competitive (though I wouldn't have minded breaking the bank for that Pujols guy).

are honestly saying you'd be fine with the team saying meh we can't afford Howard, here's a LaRoche brother and a pitcher instead?

bleh wrote:It's not that bad. In 2017 $25 million will be like $20 million in todays dollers.


For reals though, I never thought Ryan would be here for so long. I remember when he came up it seemed like he didn't want to play in Philly so I can't be upset over this really (and it's not my money).

That is actually optimistic on the economy. If we average only about 3% inflation over the next 7 years, I'll be very pleasantly surprised. Likely closer to double that.

Soren wrote:are honestly saying you'd be fine with the team saying meh we can't afford Howard, here's a LaRoche brother and a pitcher instead?

I look at that and see "here's a LaRoche brother, a pitcher, and Jayson Werth". I'm still not sure where Werth fits into the budget, although a few people, namely Floppy, seem to think he's still going to fit right in.

Does that assume a trading of Victorino for prospects?

Werthless wrote:

joe table wrote:Neyer made the WAR vs salary argument, but what he left out was that the value of a win ($/win) does not stay constant. It has gone up steadily over time, and logically will continue to go up over time. So if he continues to put up 5 win seasons, they'll be worth more and more dollars-wise each year. Bad job by him not acknowledging that fact

All in all though, both are right. Howard got a great deal, Phils didn't

He has 1 season in his career when he was worth more than 5 wins above replacement. 1 season, the same number as Vernon Wells, the same number as Alex Rios, and 2 fewer than Alfonso Soriano. Replacement quality 1B tend to be good hitters, which is why this extension is dumb. This is actually pretty comparable to the Soriano deal, in that it pays for fantasy baseball numbers (OMG 40/40, OMG 150 RBIs) for a position player at a position where it is easy to find offense.



What's most depressing about this extension is that it proves that the Phillies front office doesn't like sabermetrics, valuation, or any of the new-fangled numbers. This portends bad things down the road.

I think this is basically correct, but the HR guy has revenue raising value above his strictly baseball value, which helps to pay for the contract.

joe table wrote:WAR leaders among 1B the past three seasons (2007-2009):

Pujols 26.2
Teixiera 16.8
Youkilis 15.5
Fielder 14.7
Berkman 14.3
Cabrera ~13.9 (took 1 away since he played 3B in 2007)
A Gonzalez 13.3
C Pena 12.8
D Lee 12.4
Howard 12.4
Helton 9.8
Morneau 9.6
Votto 8.5 (two seasons)

If I took it back one more year it would probably look better, since Howard's 2006 was so massive

WPA leaders among 1B, 2007-2009

Pujols: 19.41
Fielder: 15.95
A Gonzalez: 13.15
Berkman: 12.68
Teixiera: 11.81
Howard: 11.50
Pena: 10.00
D Lee: 9.00
Votto: 8.48
M Cabrera: 6.26
Helton: 6.20
Morneau: 5.69
Youkilis: 5.43

So when you bring context-dependent stuff in, Howard ranks higher due to his sustained pattern of better performance in men on base/RISP/high leverage positions. May not be completely fair because not all the players got the same opportunities that he did throughout those seasons, but it shows that he is relatively stronger when context is considered

So maybe his RBIs aren't ALL luck/opportunity. They are likely a large part due to that. But he also has to get credit for his career-long ability to perform better in RBI-type spots, than in lower leverage spots

What could explain Howard's better performance in run-producing situations?

Seeing more fastballs/strikes? Not having the shift on?

I think a lot of what Floppy says makes sense. I don't like the contract. But I'd have liked it a whole lot less two years ago. I've been one of the chief arguers of the "bad body" issue. But Howard has really shown me something by coming into camp last year in so much better shape and then keeping that fitness this year. He seems truly dedicated to beating the odds and improving himself.

I don't think the comps are meaningless. They define the risk, which is substantial. No matter how you slice it, the odds are against Howard. But he's improved those odds significantly IMO with the hard work he's done over the last two years. I think he's improved them enough that there's one hopeful comp that wasn't mentioned: Willie Stargell. Stargell looked like he might be declining at age 30, but turned it around and stayed very productive until the age of 39 (40, if you count that season even though he didn't play full-time).

As I said, I don't like the deal because there's such a huge downside risk. But, now that it's done, I'm not without hope that it could be OK.

The Eeming Tree wrote:What could explain Howard's better performance in run-producing situations?

Seeing more fastballs/strikes? Not having the shift on?

Maybe some shift. Maybe more strikes, but he also has far more walks too (so more selective and/or getting more IBBs). Maybe he "gives away" fewer ABs with a poor approach in those spots

ruben amaro looks like he is ready to stab every single media person in the eye and piss on their souls

Things I like about the deal:

1. Who doesn't love Ryan Howard?

2. The Mets have no comparable "problem" to talk about, or any sign of soon having such a problem.

Things I dislike about the deal:

1. It's the kind of "ahhh, overpay, shmoverpay, he's a big bopper & a great guy and can sell tickets and grinders and such, who really cares it's just a game" kind of deal that may indicate just how much any of the current owners/mgrs care about continuing to do basic things sensibly and well.

2. Ryan don't pitch.

3. Overpaying always bites you in the ass. Always.

"dislike" wins 3-2

Smuggy on CSN now

It's too long and too much money but god damn do I have a smile on my face right now thinking about five more years of the Big Piece.

smooth, you'd rather pay big money for a pitcher? and what if we win one or more WFC in the next 3-4 years? will it still come back to bite us?

Howard makes Ruben look like a midget which is only suprising when you remember that Ruben was himself a major league player.

BigEd76 wrote:Casey Close:

"The reason he felt the time was right was he loves his teammates, he loves the city. He wanted to be a part of something special for a long time to come."

So either the City or one of his teammates really pissed him off up until yesterday.

SQUIRE

I'm iffy on this deal. It's too many years and too much money.

I like how Howard has made real effort over the past few years to get into shape and become a better fielder. That liability in the field crap is gone (sans trying to throw to 2nd base). He's a very solid fielder. Now that he's gotten paid, will he let himself go? I doubt it, but it's a possibility.

Positive: You locked up on of the great power hitters in baseball (perhaps the best in franchise history?).

Negative: What is going to happen in 2016/2017? Who gives a $#@! as long as they win now?

The proverbial "window" is now definitely open an extra year into 2012, but this offseason is where Amaro is going to show his true worth. I'm in the camp that believes this absolutely affects the Werth contract. Amaro shouldn't have gone to 3 years on Ibanez. Is that 3rd year going to cost the Phillies Werth? I can't see them just plain eating the contract and it's a hard sell to trade a soon-to-be 40 year old with deteriorating skills. There has to be an assumption in the Phillies camp about what it would take to re-sign Werth. He's such an integral part of the lineup and of the team.

As always, time will tell with this. If Howard continues to OPS at .950+ clip over the next 4-5 years and the Phillies win another World Series and another Pennant, it's easier to swallow. If Werth walks and the Phillies are a consistent 85-win team and only sparingly make the playoffs (in 2013-2017), I'm going to be an unhappy camper.