phillies sign marlon byrd

Re: phillies sign marlon byrd

Postby Shore » Wed Nov 13, 2013 16:41:37

milton bernard thompson wrote:
Shore wrote:
milton bernard thompson wrote:there is no way 2/16 is an overpayment for him


What if he hits .260, with a .305 OBP and a .358 SLG (Ben Revere slugged .352 this year)? With 10 HR, 44 RBI, and 30 BB, with 109 K? in 635 PA / 589 AB?

That's exactly what he did in the 2 years before this year, combined. 2011-2012. So, there's definitely a "way" that he's not worth 2/16, and it's happened recently.


really dude? c'mon. it's not an overpayment BASED ON THE DATA AT HAND. i would think every player in mlb history who's played for 10 years has had multiple past seasons that would represent an overpayment if they happened to be repeated in the current year. your point is completely silly.

but, wait. what if he hits .400, with a .650 obp and .800 slg? with 80 HR, 180 RBI, 100 BB, 0 K? see, there's a "way" it could be an underpayment!!!!!


Do you not understand that the numbers I gave are for 2 of his 3 most recent seasons?

Also, I never claimed there was no way it would be an underpayment. And your video game numbers are made up.

It depends on who's interpreting the DATA AT HAND. If you think that 2013 numbers are way more relevant than any others, you think it's a bargain. If you think 11 other seasons of different results are more relevant, you think it's a mistake. We know where Amaro, and you, land, as well as where I land.

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Re: phillies sign marlon byrd

Postby Grotewold » Wed Nov 13, 2013 16:48:21

Shore wrote:If you think that 2013 numbers are way more relevant than any others, you think it's a bargain. If you think 11 other seasons of different results are more relevant, you think it's a mistake. We know where Amaro, and you, land, as well as where I land.


I would follow that approach generally, of course. But to follow it strictly would be to miss some opportunities, imo. Couldn't there be explanations for "career" years that a GM and/or his scouts would be privy to?

Would you scream if they needed a closer and gave Grilli $6M?

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Re: phillies sign marlon byrd

Postby Shore » Wed Nov 13, 2013 16:51:56

Grotewold wrote:
Shore wrote:If you think that 2013 numbers are way more relevant than any others, you think it's a bargain. If you think 11 other seasons of different results are more relevant, you think it's a mistake. We know where Amaro, and you, land, as well as where I land.


I would follow that approach generally, of course. But to follow it strictly would be to miss some opportunities, imo. Aren't there sometimes explanations for "career" years?

Would you scream if they needed a closer and gave Grilli $6M?


Not now, of course. He's been excellent for 3 years, since we released him. After 2011, I would have been displeased, given his track record.

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Re: phillies sign marlon byrd

Postby Grotewold » Wed Nov 13, 2013 17:07:08

Shore wrote:Not now, of course. He's been excellent for 3 years, since we released him. After 2011, I would have been displeased, given his track record.


Right but after 2011 he hadn't just had a great MLB season, like Byrd did.

There have to be explanations in some cases that inform your decision moving forward, no?

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Re: phillies sign marlon byrd

Postby sydnor » Wed Nov 13, 2013 17:29:31

Yes, he had had a great season - that's why shore said THREE excellent years, 2011, 2012, 2013. http://www.baseball-reference.com/playe ... ja01.shtml
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Re: phillies sign marlon byrd

Postby milton bernard thompson » Wed Nov 13, 2013 17:48:11

Shore wrote:Do you not understand that the numbers I gave are for 2 of his 3 most recent seasons?

Also, I never claimed there was no way it would be an underpayment. And your video game numbers are made up.

It depends on who's interpreting the DATA AT HAND. If you think that 2013 numbers are way more relevant than any others, you think it's a bargain. If you think 11 other seasons of different results are more relevant, you think it's a mistake. We know where Amaro, and you, land, as well as where I land.


the video game numbers are hyperbole. the point you're supposed to garner from that is: you're absolutely correct that he could post that line and we would be getting less value than we paid for. he could also just as easily put up an .800 ops and 20 homers with good defense. the latter is not at all unreasonable to expect considering that it would represent a pretty significant regression from what he did last year, and what he did last year would be worth $20 million theoretically.

i'm not sure of what his exact projections should be or what the probability is of him posting each of our theoretical lines. i just think the chances of him achieving a season like that are overwhelmingly high enough to take a shot at it for 2/16.
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Re: phillies sign marlon byrd

Postby smitty » Wed Nov 13, 2013 18:56:28

Byrd was doing pretty well until he got hit in the face with a fastball a few years ago. He has had five above average seasons out of the last seven. His two bad seasons were really bad. And they happened after the HBP. Byrd has had a weird career. Drawing conclusions from his 2011/2012 seasons or from last season's huge year are both pretty dicey in my view.

I think there's a pretty good chance he is a better than average hitter with good corner OF defense for the next two years. If so, this is a pretty good signing.

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Re: phillies sign marlon byrd

Postby smitty » Wed Nov 13, 2013 19:08:47

Monkeyboy wrote:
smitty wrote:
milton bernard thompson wrote:hahah, someone in this thread is complaining because this signing wasn't "creative" enough? what in god's name does that even mean? like, how the waterboy was a creative signing for the sclsu muddogs?


That has been kind of a mantra around these here parts.

Being creative is something some folks think is effective. And they aren't wrong necessarily. There are some effective, creative solutions to problems. But there are also solutions that are effective that aren't creative and also creative solutions that don't work worth a crap.

I don't care a whit about creativity in building a ball club. Because you build a ball club with good ball players dammit. Don't matter how creative you are whilst doing it.

I guess if Byrd slugs .500 next year we can call this signing creative if we want to.



I don't give a shit about it either. I can't believe I make one post and then everyone ignores every other post I wrote. I thought it was ridiculous/funny that they keep talking about being creative and then they signed Byrd a week into FA. That's all. This whole creative thing came from me being sarcastic in one post.

Have I ever on this board talked about me wanting them to be creative? No, I haven't. That's because I don't care about it. I was just pointing out the gaping difference between what they said they wanted to do and what they did and how quickly they abandoned what they said they wanted to do.

FFS. You guys are worse than my students.

Me: We will have a quiz Thursday on Chapter 4.
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Me: Chapter 4
Them: Does the quiz cover chapter 5?
Me: No, it does not cover chapter 5. It only covers chapter 4.
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Me: It doesn't cover Chapter 5, only Chapter 4.
Them: Then why did you say Chapter 5?
Me: Because someone asked if it covered Chapter 5. So I answered them.
Them: So what does the quiz cover?
Me: Chapter 4
Them: I'm confused, is this a quiz or a test. If it's on multiple chapters, it should be a test.
Me: It's not a test and it doesn't cover more than one Chapter. It ONLY covers chapter 4. Here, I'll write it on the board.
Some kid in the back: Wait, we have a quiz on Thursday?

GGGGGGRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRR!!!!!!!!!!!!


Monkeyboy. You are not the only one here talking about creativity. A lot of folks have. Did Amaro as well? I have no idea since I stopped paying attention to what he says years ago.

I'm not sure why you are getting so upset about it. I didn't really even remember you specifically mentioning creativity.

The point I was making was creativity doesn't really matter all that much. To me anyway.

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Re: phillies sign marlon byrd

Postby phdave » Wed Nov 13, 2013 20:20:46

The creative meme has been going on for months. Probably since the re-signing chooch thread started where being creative was argued as some desirable outcome or tactic or something. It has been repeatedly mocked. I thought that was what Monkey Boy was referring to but I guess not. He didn't do his reading. Just like those damn students.
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Re: phillies sign marlon byrd

Postby WheelsFellOff » Wed Nov 13, 2013 22:40:06

So far the Eagles have been unable willing to at least make a good will jester - Garry Cobb, Professional Sportswriter

jerseyhoya wrote:My hatred of quote boxes in signatures has reached a new high

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Re: phillies sign marlon byrd

Postby BigEd76 » Wed Nov 13, 2013 22:57:50

More from Byrd:

"The first suspension was dumb enough. To have two and 100 games – I’d be done in the game."


"I didn’t want to wait around. The Phillies were aggressive with an amazing offer. I didn’t want to wait to see how much money I could get. I have friends on that team, my wife (Andrea) is from there. It’s definitely a blessing."

"I think I’m a smarter hitter than my first time in Philadelphia. I’ve faced a lot of pitchers. I think I know what catchers are trying to do. I was kind of a raw talent early. Now I know how to hit big-league pitching."

Byrd said he has remained close with Jimmy Rollins, Chase Utley and Ryan Howard – “The big three,” he called them – and he likes many of the Phillies young players. He mentioned the promise of Domonic Brown and Ben Revere and raved about the arms of Jake Diekman and Justin DeFratus.

"To go from trying to make a team in 2013 to being a starting outfielder for the Phillies with a two-year contract ... It’s beyond my wildest dreams."

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Re: phillies sign marlon byrd

Postby Napalm » Wed Nov 13, 2013 23:01:01

he sounds like a smart guy. i'll root for him

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Re: phillies sign marlon byrd

Postby Monkeyboy » Thu Nov 14, 2013 08:46:53

phdave wrote:The creative meme has been going on for months. Probably since the re-signing chooch thread started where being creative was argued as some desirable outcome or tactic or something. It has been repeatedly mocked. I thought that was what Monkey Boy was referring to but I guess not. He didn't do his reading. Just like those damn students.



I haven't been reading much lately, obviously, so I probably missed that meme. Too bad. I didn't see anyone else say it, so I thought he was referring to me. So, I guess I didn't do my reading. :( I was referencing Amaro's interview where he said they may need to be creative this year.

For the record, I love my students, even when they drive me crazy by not listening. Seriously, I have great kids this year.
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Re: phillies sign marlon byrd

Postby Monkeyboy » Thu Nov 14, 2013 08:53:53

Minus the time he beat up his girlfriend, I also always liked the Byrdman. He hit a ton of foul balls to my season ticket section (section 112), so he also had that going for him. I remember one AB where he hit 6 balls into the section.

When he came up, people thought he would hit for some power. Maybe he'll be good this year. I'll root for him.
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Re: phillies sign marlon byrd

Postby Grotewold » Thu Nov 14, 2013 10:21:22

Gelb on the changes to Byrt's approach

Byrd was a different type of hitter in 2013. He hit the ball on the ground just 39.2 percent of the time, according to batted-ball data from FanGraphs.com. It was his lowest percentage since 2005. More of his contact was in the air, a trend that bodes well for playing at Citizens Bank Park.

The adjustment came while he worked last winter with Doug Latta at a suburban Los Angeles baseball facility called the Ballyard.

"When I say it out loud, it sounds kind of silly," Byrd said by phone. "My whole career, I've been taught to hit the top of the ball. When I started breaking down the swing, I realized when you hit the top of the ball, the ball goes down and it's a ground ball. If you can stay through the middle of the ball, you can get the ball in the air. That's what we worked on to try to drive the ball for more power."

It worked, and that is part of why Amaro does not believe 2013 was an aberration.

"We talked to our scouts about how his swing path and approach changed," Amaro said. "He's worked on it. I have to trust my scouts on it."

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Re: phillies sign marlon byrd

Postby Woody » Thu Nov 14, 2013 10:47:59

SUCK ON THAT BACKSPIN, SHORE
you sure do seem to have a lot of time on your hands to be on this forum? Do you have a job? Are you a shut-in?

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Re: phillies sign marlon byrd

Postby Titlehungry » Thu Nov 14, 2013 10:54:55

Wish I hadn't gotten rid of my Marlon Byrd Celebri-duck
Even if you get run over by a clown car and pissed on by a busload of school children, it's still your responsibility to interpret the meaning of the event and choose a response

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Re: phillies sign marlon byrd

Postby RichmondPhilsFan » Thu Nov 14, 2013 11:04:35

Whatever. I'll drink the Kool-Aid. I've spent 2013 rooting for the Phillies, Flyers, Redskins, and UVA Football. I'm desperate for a gleam of hope at this point. (At least I've got UVA Basketball that seems promising.)

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Re: phillies sign marlon byrd

Postby Trent Steele » Thu Nov 14, 2013 11:10:39

Last year he did show a huge increase in FB% from the prior 3 years.

I'd expect a pretty significant decrease in avg/obp next year but I'm hopeful he can retain most of the power gains.

Something like .270/.320/.450 seems like a likely landing spot. Is that worth 2/16? Probably. But it's also probably not enough to make a meaningful difference.

That's sort of my problem with it. You've locked up the one position where you might be able to materially improve the offense (Choo?) and you improved it incrementally.

Assuming (1) we have something like $35-40m to spend and (2) we aren't going to sign Ellsbury or McCann, what are we spending it on? Obviously love JOEY BATS idea, but there's nothing in the FA market like that, so it would need to be a trade to improve the offense, and that's OK by me. What I DO NOT want to see is what he did last year - waste 20m on completely worthless players like Young(s), Lannan, Adams, etc.
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Re: phillies sign marlon byrd

Postby Grotewold » Thu Nov 14, 2013 11:12:04

Woody wrote:SUCK ON THAT BACKSPIN, SHORE


Hopefully pitchers don't think to throw it two inches lower

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