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Phillies Thoughts- Ruben Amaro: Great GM or The Greatest GM?

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Re: Phillies Thoughts- Ruben Amaro: Great GM or The Greatest

Postby td11 » Wed Aug 07, 2013 09:44:53

+1+1
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Re: Phillies Thoughts- Ruben Amaro: Great GM or The Greatest

Postby CalvinBall » Wed Aug 07, 2013 09:45:08

=

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Re: Phillies Thoughts- Ruben Amaro: Great GM or The Greatest

Postby 1 » Wed Aug 07, 2013 09:46:26

Squiggly approximately equal to sign

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Re: Phillies Thoughts- Ruben Amaro: Great GM or The Greatest

Postby phillies » Wed Aug 07, 2013 09:48:30

contract extension for rube plz

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Re: Phillies Thoughts- Ruben Amaro: Great GM or The Greatest

Postby Soren » Wed Aug 07, 2013 09:56:16

I don't disagree in principle that we were all excited that he was going for it with the big moves/it was a good idea to go all in with big moves but the little things have been bungled so intensely and repeatedly that it's hard to give him a pass on the big picture shortcomings.
Olivia Meadows, your "emotional poltergeist"

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Re: Phillies Thoughts- Ruben Amaro: Great GM or The Greatest

Postby SK790 » Wed Aug 07, 2013 10:06:19

Squire wrote:Guy on WIP yesterday asked a great question

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I like teh waether

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Re: Phillies Thoughts- Ruben Amaro: Great GM or The Greatest

Postby JFLNYC » Wed Aug 07, 2013 10:19:05

Winning today while preparing for the future are not mutually exclusive.
Jamie

"A man who tells lies . . . merely hides the truth. But a man who tells half-lies has forgotten where he put it."

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Re: Phillies Thoughts- Ruben Amaro: Great GM or The Greatest

Postby usctrojans31 » Wed Aug 07, 2013 10:26:46

JFLNYC wrote:Winning today while preparing for the future are not mutually exclusive.


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Re: Phillies Thoughts- Ruben Amaro: Great GM or The Greatest

Postby CalvinBall » Wed Aug 07, 2013 10:34:20

fuck the cardinals. 2011 was just a master stroke of luck it shouldnt even be counted.

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Re: Phillies Thoughts- Ruben Amaro: Great GM or The Greatest

Postby nycphils » Wed Aug 07, 2013 11:02:17

The Phils now have the second worst run differential in the entire MLB, only Houston is worse. *smgdh*

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Re: Phillies Thoughts- Ruben Amaro: Great GM or The Greatest

Postby Grotewold » Wed Aug 07, 2013 11:04:37

Yeah if there's one takeaway from this year, it's that they've been super lucky

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Re: Phillies Thoughts- Ruben Amaro: Great GM or The Greatest

Postby sydnor » Wed Aug 07, 2013 11:07:10

I think the takeaway is that they're WORSE than you, and most of us, think they are.
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Re: Phillies Thoughts- Ruben Amaro: Great GM or The Greatest

Postby Grotewold » Wed Aug 07, 2013 11:08:51

sydnor wrote:I think the takeaway is that they're WORSE than you, and most of us, think they are.


Explain this to me, because what I see is they're 14-21 in one-run games. BP has them at the 46-win level by first order and 48 by third order, five and three games below their actual tally

What jumps out to me is the 8-23 record in blowouts. The Stros are a terrible 9-24 in blowouts, too, but also a differential 78 runs worse than ours. The Marlins' are 9-18 in blowouts and have virtually the same differential as us. Obviously, it's bad to get blown out a lot, but I think it also skews the differential in terms of actual win expectancy
Last edited by Grotewold on Wed Aug 07, 2013 11:15:26, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Phillies Thoughts- Ruben Amaro: Great GM or The Greatest

Postby Shore » Wed Aug 07, 2013 11:15:24

Grotewold wrote:
sydnor wrote:I think the takeaway is that they're WORSE than you, and most of us, think they are.


Explain this to me, because what I see is they're 14-21 in one-run games. BP has them at the 46-win level by first order and 48 by third order, five and three games below their actual tally

What jumps out to me is the 8-23 record in blowouts


I look at the 8-23 record in blowouts, which is what awful teams do, and I look at the fact that we have more wins than we should by run differential, and by 1st and 3rd order wins, and I fail to see an argument to be made OTHER than we are worse than our record appears.

Is there a counter to that?

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Re: Phillies Thoughts- Ruben Amaro: Great GM or The Greatest

Postby sydnor » Wed Aug 07, 2013 11:16:11

So 5 games (or 3) worse than an already terrible record makes you think they're better than they are? F, grote, we'd be 20 games under .500 with the 2nd worst record in the NL, 5 in MLB and one of the oldest rosters in the league. What part of that is rosy? At the beginning part of the season it was easy to see how 2 horrid 14-2 games by a pitcher that was injured could skew perceptions. Across more games, not so easy.
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Re: Phillies Thoughts- Ruben Amaro: Great GM or The Greatest

Postby kruker » Wed Aug 07, 2013 11:16:46

To McNeal's point above, and it's been said on here hundreds of times, but all those years when we were giving up high draft picks we should have been flexing our financial muscle in the international market.
"Everybody's a critic. This wasn't an aesthetic endeavor."

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Re: Phillies Thoughts- Ruben Amaro: Great GM or The Greatest

Postby Grotewold » Wed Aug 07, 2013 11:16:52

Shore wrote:I look at the 8-23 record in blowouts, which is what awful teams do, and I look at the fact that we have more wins than we should by run differential, and by 1st and 3rd order wins, and I fail to see an argument to be made OTHER than we are worse than our record appears.

Is there a counter to that?


I added a bit more to my post above. I'm not an expert on this by any means.

I guess my big-picture counter is we're not the second-worst team in baseball. Or, if we are, it's a lot about injuries. So what's the point in wilding out over this?

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Re: Phillies Thoughts- Ruben Amaro: Great GM or The Greatest

Postby Grotewold » Wed Aug 07, 2013 11:18:31

sydnor wrote:At the beginning part of the season it was easy to see how 2 horrid 14-2 games by a pitcher that was injured could skew perceptions. Across more games, not so easy.


A lot of the awful differential is from the past two weeks, with the skeleton crew on the field. If that gives you some kind of satisfaction to point out, so be it.

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Re: Phillies Thoughts- Ruben Amaro: Great GM or The Greatest

Postby sydnor » Wed Aug 07, 2013 11:31:06

No, you don't get off this easy, and I'm not sure I understand the antagonism coming towards me from you.

We have been terrible this year. Yes, we've been particularly bad this last week but that's countered by a couple key points:

1. We've been getting blown out, so even if Dom had done his 9 homers in 9 days thing, we might have only won one more game.
2. Darin Ruf has been demonstrably better than Ryan Howard. We've been net better with that injury. That's not arguable.

Who are all these injuries that are magically going to make our team better? Cliff missing a start? Sure, no argument. Ben Revere hurts, A BIT. And just a bit. The point is that this isn't a skeleton crew, it's that this is basically our team next year. Yes we'll get to spend money to improve it but we have a ton of improvement to do.

I'm more optimistic than guys like Jamie or Shore are, yet you don't get so pissy with them.
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Re: Phillies Thoughts- Ruben Amaro: Great GM or The Greatest

Postby Grotewold » Wed Aug 07, 2013 11:36:07

sydnor wrote:The point is that this isn't a skeleton crew, it's that this is basically our team next year. Yes we'll get to spend money to improve it but we have a ton of improvement to do


OK. So we're a .415% team in reality, which translates to 67 wins. Which is what we should expect next year? I'll take any and all action there.

As for Shore and JFly and others, I hold them in high esteem. You, I'm just getting to know...

:-D

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