I wouldn't non-tender Stutes either.

RichmondPhilsFan wrote:

Barry Jive wrote:just realized a decent amount of space they have is because of Arb guys. look at this list:

Kendrick Arb 4
Lannan Arb 3
Bastardo Arb 2
Frandsen Arb 2
Mayberry Arb 1
Revere Arb 1
Valdes Arb 1
Stutes Arb 1

can't imagine any of those guys will be too expensive. might consider non-tendering Lannan, Frandsen, Mayberry, Valdes and Stutes depending on who's out there.

Serious question... why would they non-tender Mayberry? He seems like the perfect 4th OF (can play all three spots, solid bat with pop), and he'll cost less than $1M. That makes even less sense to me than it did to non-tender Schierholtz.

I'm not saying I would, but I'd consider it. I'm sure someone here would make the argument they should. Lannan and Valdes are almost definite non-tender candidates.

Barry Jive wrote:

Grotewold wrote:

Barry Jive wrote:I never said Howard's contract prohibited them from contending

If I read too much into the thing about hedging for a couple years, my bad, but I think we're on the same page.

Hard to say what it will take to contend the next few years with the variables I mentioned upthread, but obviously we'll need some smart moves and some breaks. Priority is an elite bat, hopefully not at the expense of Lee

I understand why people look at Lee as a trade target but that just seems like a move a team with a lesser payroll would make. He's not way overpaid if at all, and he and Hamels could be a great 1-2 for another couple years. There are a lot of slots to fill but you're not going to get Cliff Lee-like talent to fill them if you trade him.

Pretty much the only way I would move Lee is if you could attach Howard to him but I doubt that would happen.

then you're almost getting nothing for a very tradeable asset

I'd say 100% Valdes, 80% Lannan. Don't know about Frandsen because there are so many things that could happen w/r/t 2B and 3B for 2014. Stutes is a cheap 6th/7th inning guy who has looked solid in limited action this season, so I don't know why he'd get nontendered.

The Dude wrote:then you're almost getting nothing for a very tradeable asset

I don't think freeing up 25 million per year over the next three years is nothing.

you don't give up an elite pitcher to do it, though

i think Stutes sorta blows, which is why I put him on there. i'm not sure how pre-arb agreements work but if they could just give him a minor-league deal that'd make sense to me. he hasn't proven himself a major leaguer yet imo. if he keeps pitching well this year, i might change my mind

The Dude wrote:you don't give up an elite pitcher to do it, though

Unless there are clear targets you know are signable.

If they traded Howard and Lee for nothing but contract relief, finding more value for 45 million is definitely not out of question depending on the market.

The Dude wrote:you don't give up an elite pitcher to do it, though

i think others have made a salient point about past returns for cliffy in a trade (basically nothing much) and opined that there's no reason to believe he'd fetch more now.

I want to keep him anyway

but you never know that until the time comes.

Bucky wrote:

The Dude wrote:you don't give up an elite pitcher to do it, though

i think others have made a salient point about past returns for cliffy in a trade (basically nothing much) and opined that there's no reason to believe he'd fetch more now.

that's another reason to hang onto him, IMO

correct, i'm trying to listen to a conference call while typing and incorrectly made it sound backwards

Wheels Tupay wrote:

The Dude wrote:then you're almost getting nothing for a very tradeable asset

I don't think freeing up 25 million per year over the next three years is nothing.

It's almost nothing, IMO.

If the plan is to contend through 2016, getting rid of Lee is weak. There's no cheaper/better option you could sign, not to mention the intangible/PR aspects.

If the plan is to rebuild, then Howard's money is practically irrelevant (while irritating). In that case, you move Lee for the best return and eat some more money to maximize that.

I suspect the Phils plan to contend and would only move Lee for an elite MLB-ready hitter. And even that may be predicated on confidence that Halladay would return next year effective and at a discount.

Grotewold wrote:

Wheels Tupay wrote:

The Dude wrote:then you're almost getting nothing for a very tradeable asset

I don't think freeing up 25 million per year over the next three years is nothing.

It's almost nothing, IMO.

If the plan is to contend through 2016, getting rid of Lee is weak. There's no cheaper/better option you could sign, not to mention the intangible/PR aspects.

If the plan is to rebuild, then Howard's money is practically irrelevant (while irritating). In that case, you move Lee for the best return and eat some more money to maximize that.

I suspect the Phils plan to contend and would only move Lee for an elite MLB-ready hitter. And even that may be predicated on confidence that Halladay would return next year effective and at a discount.

If the plan is to rebuild, Howard's money, while not relevant towards current contention, could (theoretically) go towards international signings and development and thus make the team stronger at the end of the rebuild.

phatj wrote:If the plan is to rebuild, Howard's money, while not relevant towards current contention, could (theoretically) go towards international signings and development and thus make the team stronger at the end of the rebuild.

If Howard's money is the difference between doing that stuff or not, I'd warm to the idea, even though you're also losing the maximum return for Lee. But in my mind, a rebuild entails slashing the payroll to the point that one awful salary doesn't mean much

And this all assumes Howard would offer absolutely nothing the next three years. As bad as he's looking, I'm not quite there yet

Trent Steele wrote:Also Aoki, who could play CF and is about 50000x better than Revere offensively, signed for peanuts last year.

He's done well. But not a lot of folks really thought he was all that good -- even the Brewers. He's not good in CF. he's really good in RF. He's 31. He's a slap and dash guy. Revere can be as good at some point -- maybe soon. Maybe not. But there are a whole bunch of guys like Aoki who did not work out. You can always cherry pick the few that do.

Further, a lot of guys who were touted heavily here aren't doing much. Youklis has been hurt (big surprise) and has a .694 OPS. Headly has a similar OPS to Young (without the GIDPs and with very good defense but still). BJ Upton has sucked. Who else?

The Phillies off season moves were mostly short term and stop gap. What they do for the next couple of years will determine their future.

Chris Branch ‏@ChrisBranchTNJ 2m

Ben Revere returned to his old digs Tuesday. He's been solid, but hasn't fulfilled expectations that came with trade

Branch must be on drugs

Reading about Charlie Manuel's playing days. Wondering if there is another player who so thoroughly and consistently DOMINATED the AAA/Japanese League level who was so abysmally ineffective at the major league level.

Manuel OPSes at AAA, Japan League stops (age in parentheses):

1970 - 1.047 (26)
1971 - 1.227 (27)
1973 - .839 (29)
1974 - 1.032 (30)
1975 - 1.015 (31)
1976 - .712 (32)
1977 - 1.093 (33)
1978 - .968 (34)
1979 - 1.146 (35)
1980 - 1.073 (36)
1981 - .790 (37)

He hit 276 at AAA/Japan League levels (87 at AAA level, 189 in Japan).

And yet, his ML career stat line: 242 G, .198/.273/.260/.533 with 4 career home runs in parts of 6 major league seasons.

Steve Jeltz has 5 major league home runs.

There are 62 hitters in MLB right now than have been worth more than 1.5 WAR. The Phillies have zero.

There are 197 hitters in MLB right now that have been worth .5 WAR or more. The Phillies have 4. Two of whom aren't playing (Utley and Kratz).

NIce work.