There's nothing wrong per se with taking a flier on a guy like Delmon Young. But if you're going to make a small bet on an improbable outcome, rather than putting all your money on one improbable outcome, it would be better to make 2 or 3 small bets to increase your odds that one will pay off. So that's one thing the Phils could have done differently.

And, although one big mistake with the Howard contract may not make or break the Phils' fortunes, the continued stubborn -- and I would argue, mistaken -- belief that Howard is going to return to anything approaching peak form and acting on that belief by continuing to play him every day against all kinds of pitching and hitting him in the cleanup spot, is something which both damages the Phils' chances and is something which could be done differently.

There are probably no one or two things which any team could do differently to change its fortunes dramatically. But that's no excuse for not doing as many of these seemingly small things in a way which will improve your team's chances no matter how insignificant any one of them may seem in isolation.

Right but there was little maneuverability because of rolling with the core and Lee and Halladay and Papelbon.

Utley and Halladay and Ruiz and, of course, Howard are the problem this year. Not Schierholtz type missed opportunities

Let's see what happens now

Grotewold wrote:I mean, it's not like Amaro laid $1M on us in Vegas or something -- what should he have done differently this winter? Were you one of the people pushing for BJ Upton?

Clearly the bloom is off the rose with Amaro, even for me. But I feel like this is a pretty natural slide from a great run, all things considered; even as bad as the Howard deal looks, it's not like one extra "overpaid" hitter would take this team (that you hate) over the top. Amaro's legacy will hinge on what he does moving forward, imo.

Weren't you the guy who kept saying that max-payroll teams don't backslide without reloading? That it never happens? Now it's "pretty natural"? Boston, the Yankees, the Cardinals... they've done it for 15 years without many (Boston, STL) or any (NYY) down years.

If this is what he "expected" coming into the year, I don't get it. We're the new Phillies. We're either competing for a championship, or building rapidly for the next one. Who on this roster will be a part of the next run? Hamels and Brown? Who else?

I hate this ROSTER, but I love this TEAM. I wish Ruben wasn't running it, and that I had hope that we could get fixed even relatively quickly.

No, I said they don't 'blow up' their rosters, the basically unprecedented Dodgers trade notwithstanding.

I meant you hating roster, not Phillies, yes

Barry Jive wrote:I think Shore's gonna act mad regardless of whether there's a reason

seriously though, points 2, 4, 5 and 6 are bunk anyway if that's the case. Jimmy Rollins is having a slow start to the season? Stop the fucking presses

Rollins is performing exactly like he should have been expected to. Same with Utley, Howard, Revere, Young, Young. You certainly hoped that Ruiz would be healthy when he returned, but he's a 34-year-old catcher, and a .750 OPS guy, coming off a suspension and presumably without his medication. It shouldn't be shocking that C is a problem.

Even if you see Utley's injury coming, they've done better than replacement level with his backups. Revere is 25 and could improve or not improve, but his (and Chooch's, and Rollins') disappointing start is not evidence that Amaro is wrong about what they'll do this season, especially given their histories.

Grotewold wrote:No, I said they don't 'blow up' their rosters, the basically unprecedented Dodgers trade notwithstanding.

I meant you hating roster, not Phillies, yes

Fair enough, on both.

It was fucking awesome when watching the Phillies every night was mandatory, and not just for baseball fans, for just about anyone who had a job or went to school or was ever with people in social situations - EVERYONE talked about the Phillies.

I too want Amaro gone based on his track record, but I think I can acknowledge that he might have a plan for the future that hasn't really had a chance to show itself yet

While his off-season moves this year aren't working, none of them are going to adversely affect the future of the team. The Youngs are gone after this year, Revere is 25 and cheap, Adams' deal is chump change for a team like the Phils. I'm still in favor of the Hamels extension, although I can see why trading him would have made sense last year. By the same token, I think Rollins, Papelbon, and Lee are all easily moveable and valuable assets. Utley and Chooch too if they prove healthy.

It's entirely possible (and judging by his comments, likely) that Amaro realizes the Howard and Pence deals were massive mistakes. He tried to patch the holes with duct tape this off-season, and it isn't really working. I don't really know if he's ever expressed anything more than the fact that he was crossing his fingers with these moves (which is what all of us were doing, too, at least with M. Young).

Barry Jive wrote:Even if you see Utley's injury coming, they've done better than replacement level with his backups. Revere is 25 and could improve or not improve, but his (and Chooch's, and Rollins') disappointing start is not evidence that Amaro is wrong about what they'll do this season, especially given their histories.

Rollins, age 30-33: .253 / .316 / .410 .726 OPS, 93 OPS+
Rollins, age 34: .259 / .327 / .385 .712 OPS, 94 OPS +

It's not a slow start, it's what he is.

Revere's average is down, but he's walking as often as ever, and his XBH total can't be surprising - he hits very few doubles, a decent number of triples, and zero homers. CBP suppresses triples historically, and doubles, too, I believe, while increasing homers. Bad formula for Ben.

Shore wrote:

Grotewold wrote:No, I said they don't 'blow up' their rosters, the basically unprecedented Dodgers trade notwithstanding.

I meant you hating roster, not Phillies, yes

Fair enough, on both.

It was fucking awesome when watching the Phillies every night was mandatory, and not just for baseball fans, for just about anyone who had a job or went to school or was ever with people in social situations - EVERYONE talked about the Phillies.

I hear ya, believe me

I'm not writing this year off yet, but if we're out of it at the deadline, I'd look to move Rollins (mainly because we have a feasible replacement) and Papelbon. Adams too, if he's producing at the time. I'm in no hurry to move Kendrick but would certainly listen.

I'm torn on Lee, because I really do think we can contend for at least a wild card again soon with him, Hamels, Brown and another stud hitter (free agent or trade) and a few breaks as it relates to health and prospects.

Still so many variables, though. What are they thinking on Utley for next year and beyond? Both desire to sign him and his chances of staying healthy enough. Would Halladay return on a discount next year? If not, which free agent SP could be in consideration? What would it take to bring Ruiz back on a one- or two-year deal? We'd probably need to sign a stop gap C, anyway, while phasing a young guy in

Speaking of Papelbon.... I saw Bailey had another rough one for the Sox last night. Not sure what the Sox are thinking, but I could see those guys switching places as part of a larger trade. Amaro saves a little face by bringing in a replacement with a relatively high profile who is a local guy, Sox get the way more dependable arm in the short term. Anything else of ours that could help them?

Am I remembering correctly that Papelbon has a limited NTC that includes Detroit? That seems like the most logical landing spot for him in terms of their need and assumed willingness to spend. Is Pap for Castellanos something that's feasible and something worth getting excited about?

Thanks, I'll listen to your take off the air

The thing I'm not sure about, and that I doubt they're sure about, is whether the Phillies are now permanent members of the economic upper caste, or a middling team with means swelled by a great run. Clearly they've proven that this can be a great market, and can say "we'll spend when it makes sense," but will they be willing to keep a nine figure payroll when attendance falls back toward 2-2.5 million?

The reason I think this matters is that the system looks poised to churn out a bunch of players who look like marginal regulars but not future stars. Combining a bunch of Hernandezes and Rupps and Diekmans into a Headley, just as he gets expensive, is probably the quickest way back to relevance.

dajafi wrote:The thing I'm not sure about, and that I doubt they're sure about, is whether the Phillies are now permanent members of the economic upper caste, or a middling team with means swelled by a great run. Clearly they've proven that this can be a great market, and can say "we'll spend when it makes sense," but will they be willing to keep a nine figure payroll when attendance falls back toward 2-2.5 million?

The reason I think this matters is that the system looks poised to churn out a bunch of players who look like marginal regulars but not future stars. Combining a bunch of Hernandezes and Rupps and Diekmans into a Headley, just as he gets expensive, is probably the quickest way back to relevance.

Given the inroads they've made in the (somewhat fickle) Philly market, the looming TV deal, and the general economic factors of MLB, I think it would be nuts to slash payroll anytime soon. Economically and competitively

Shore wrote:

Barry Jive wrote:Even if you see Utley's injury coming, they've done better than replacement level with his backups. Revere is 25 and could improve or not improve, but his (and Chooch's, and Rollins') disappointing start is not evidence that Amaro is wrong about what they'll do this season, especially given their histories.

Rollins, age 30-33: .253 / .316 / .410 .726 OPS, 93 OPS+
Rollins, age 34: .259 / .327 / .385 .712 OPS, 94 OPS +

It's not a slow start, it's what he is.

Revere's average is down, but he's walking as often as ever, and his XBH total can't be surprising - he hits very few doubles, a decent number of triples, and zero homers. CBP suppresses triples historically, and doubles, too, I believe, while increasing homers. Bad formula for Ben.

Maybe Rollins won't have the dynamite second half he almost always has. It's probably unfair to expect that from him given his age. fwiw he was injured in 2010 and that drags those averages down quite a bit. His age works against him here, but if he stays healthy (like he has for the vast majority of his time in the majors) he should be better.

I agree, and I never wanted Revere any higher than the 8 hole to start off with. It's a bummer the rest of the team sucks though. You shouldn't be counting on him so much.

my cousin mose wrote:Am I remembering correctly that Papelbon has a limited NTC that includes Detroit? That seems like the most logical landing spot for him in terms of their need and assumed willingness to spend. Is Pap for Castellanos something that's feasible and something worth getting excited about?

Thanks, I'll listen to your take off the air

i think the majority of the people would say detroit turns that down, but i'm not so sure. the one thing they are missing is an elite closer and being so close the last few years might push them into making a deal for a pitcher like papelbon. castellanos is the type of prospect they need to add. they've moved him to lf, but i'd put him right back at third. move lee for another potential impact hitter and i feel like that is the best way to turn it around.

Grotewold wrote:Right but there was little maneuverability because of rolling with the core and Lee and Halladay and Papelbon.

Utley and Halladay and Ruiz and, of course, Howard are the problem this year. Not Schierholtz type missed opportunities

Let's see what happens now

I think you're looking at things too narrowly. First, even if you're right that there was little maneuverability, that's no excuse for not making the moves you can. For example, Rube certainly had the maneuverability to sign another low risk alternative or two for RF and/or to keep Schierholtz. That's one of the advantages to being a big-payroll team: You can afford to place more bets than the small-market teams.

And you're thinking of just this past off-season. What about the off-season before? The Phils had real questions about LF. Carlos Beltran signed for 2/26. By Rube's standards, that would have been a pretty conservative bet. And I spent a good portion of that off-season arguing for signing Cuddyer in large part because his versatility was exactly what this team needed/needs because of the health and production questions surrounding its veterans. I said then and still believe that, with Galvis close to being ready, a 3/30 deal for Cuddyer was a better allocation of available resources than a 4/44 contract for Rollins, especially with a guy like Marco Scutaro available for a reasonable price on the last year of his contract as a stopgap in case Galvis wasn't ready.

Finally, I disagree with the notion that the problem has been the failure of the core players and not the complementary guys. It's been both. And it's much easier to make some moves on the complementary level (such as the examples above) than it is to change the core. Rube may have had his hands tied when it comes to the core, but he has never been very good at all in respect of his complementary additions.

Grotewold wrote:

dajafi wrote:The thing I'm not sure about, and that I doubt they're sure about, is whether the Phillies are now permanent members of the economic upper caste, or a middling team with means swelled by a great run. Clearly they've proven that this can be a great market, and can say "we'll spend when it makes sense," but will they be willing to keep a nine figure payroll when attendance falls back toward 2-2.5 million?

The reason I think this matters is that the system looks poised to churn out a bunch of players who look like marginal regulars but not future stars. Combining a bunch of Hernandezes and Rupps and Diekmans into a Headley, just as he gets expensive, is probably the quickest way back to relevance.

Given the inroads they've made in the (somewhat fickle) Philly market, the looming TV deal, and the general economic factors of MLB, I think it would be nuts to slash payroll anytime soon. Economically and competitively

It doesn't look good given their WARP/$ or whatever bang-for-your-buck metric you wanna use, but they did cut payroll this year. I think given the free agent market last year and the team's needs, that was a smart move going forward. They can afford to lose attendance because they're not spending as much money as they did the past few years. It's almost like they're hedging against the sure suckitude of a team pumping 25 million into a league-average first baseman.

Barry Jive wrote:It doesn't look good given their WARP/$ or whatever bang-for-your-buck metric you wanna use, but they did cut payroll this year. I think given the free agent market last year and the team's needs, that was a smart move going forward. They can afford to lose attendance because they're not spending as much money as they did the past few years. It's almost like they're hedging against the sure suckitude of a team pumping 25 million into a league-average first baseman.

I said slash (ie, what "blowing it up" would entail, unless you turn right around and go hog wild in free agency) not cut.

Not sure what you mean with that last line. Howard's deal looks awful, but lots of teams have won with albatross type contracts on their roster, most recently San Fran (twice)

JFLY,

I don't necessarily disagree with any of that, so I think we just view/discuss these things different or it's semantics.

As for Beltran/Cuddyer, though, would that have been in Papelbon's stead? Not sure that nets out positively. We would have had historically awful bullpens, instead of just regular awful

I'm mainly just saying this is a complicated situation, and that being serious about avoiding the possibility of a sub-.500 team would have meant making really difficult (and unrealistic, I'd say) decisions about the core players in the midst of 100-win seasons. Again, even I am holding Amaro responsible here, and he certainly made mistakes large and small. I just think the degree to which the (incredibly unlucky, even accounting for age) last season and a half could have been avoided, and the bleakness of the future, are being overstated