Dom Brown: Phillies Random Thoughts

Re: Dom Brown: Phillies Random Thoughts

Postby Trent Steele » Wed Jun 12, 2013 11:04:35

Grotewold wrote:
dajafi wrote:Murphy, who's insufferable but not stupid, suggests looking to move Pap and Kendrick. Seems like a good place to start, but I'd listen on literally everybody.


I agree with him on the targets. But the thing about potentially eating all of Pap's deal is absurd


It's not absurd if it gets you elite prospects. Their sole asset is money. If the FA market sucks and the cap on international signings starts to kick in, the money advantage becomes much less meaningful. Increasing the value of tradeable assets by making them close-to-free to get elite young talent is exactly what they should be doing.
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Re: Dom Brown: Phillies Random Thoughts

Postby Grotewold » Wed Jun 12, 2013 11:42:05

Trent Steele wrote:
Grotewold wrote:
dajafi wrote:Murphy, who's insufferable but not stupid, suggests looking to move Pap and Kendrick. Seems like a good place to start, but I'd listen on literally everybody.


I agree with him on the targets. But the thing about potentially eating all of Pap's deal is absurd


It's not absurd if it gets you elite prospects. Their sole asset is money. If the FA market sucks and the cap on international signings starts to kick in, the money advantage becomes much less meaningful. Increasing the value of tradeable assets by making them close-to-free to get elite young talent is exactly what they should be doing.


I understand that in theory. But does it ever actually happen, in excess of $5-10M?

The Tigers and Sox don't need to go to that extreme to afford him, and the Pirates and Rays can't play fast and loose with blue chips

Although by the bloggers' logic that Papelbon has an awful contract because Charlie is stupid, I guess he'd be worth $20M or so with Maddon...

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Re: Dom Brown: Phillies Random Thoughts

Postby Trent Steele » Wed Jun 12, 2013 11:47:40

Grotewold wrote:
Trent Steele wrote:
Grotewold wrote:
dajafi wrote:Murphy, who's insufferable but not stupid, suggests looking to move Pap and Kendrick. Seems like a good place to start, but I'd listen on literally everybody.


I agree with him on the targets. But the thing about potentially eating all of Pap's deal is absurd


It's not absurd if it gets you elite prospects. Their sole asset is money. If the FA market sucks and the cap on international signings starts to kick in, the money advantage becomes much less meaningful. Increasing the value of tradeable assets by making them close-to-free to get elite young talent is exactly what they should be doing.


I understand that in theory. But does it ever actually happen, in excess of $5-10M?

The Tigers and Sox don't need to go to that extreme to afford him, and the Pirates and Rays can't play fast and loose with blue chips

Although by the bloggers' logic that Papelbon has an awful contract because Charlie is stupid, I guess he'd be worth $20M or so with Maddon...



It probably doesn't happen, but the Phillies should make it happen if there is a team that was willing to do it. Does it matter how much you have to eat on Papelbon if you can get Castellanos or whoever? Same with Lee if he could get you a Will Myers. I'm not suggesting you can actually do those deals, but theoretically, I agree with the idea.
I know what you're asking yourself and the answer is yes. I have a nick name for my penis. Its called the Octagon, but I also nick named my testes - my left one is James Westfall and my right one is Doctor Kenneth Noisewater.

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Re: Dom Brown: Phillies Random Thoughts

Postby Grotewold » Wed Jun 12, 2013 11:51:50

Trent Steele wrote:It probably doesn't happen, but the Phillies should make it happen if there is a team that was willing to do it. Does it matter how much you have to eat on Papelbon if you can get Castellanos or whoever? Same with Lee if he could get you a Will Myers. I'm not suggesting you can actually do those deals, but theoretically, I agree with the idea.


I'm as unconcerned about our payroll as anyone here, and of course would be open to eating money for great prospects. Just saying the notion of eating upwards of $40M for Papelbon is absurd. I can't imagine not being able to achieve similar results at much less cost

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Re: Dom Brown: Phillies Random Thoughts

Postby choco » Wed Jun 12, 2013 13:13:15

Grotewold wrote:
Trent Steele wrote:It probably doesn't happen, but the Phillies should make it happen if there is a team that was willing to do it. Does it matter how much you have to eat on Papelbon if you can get Castellanos or whoever? Same with Lee if he could get you a Will Myers. I'm not suggesting you can actually do those deals, but theoretically, I agree with the idea.


I'm as unconcerned about our payroll as anyone here, and of course would be open to eating money for great prospects. Just saying the notion of eating upwards of $40M for Papelbon is absurd. I can't imagine not being able to achieve similar results at much less cost


Is any single prospect even worth $40 million dollars on top of what you pay them in salary?
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Re: Dom Brown: Phillies Random Thoughts

Postby Youseff » Wed Jun 12, 2013 13:21:52

me and my friend were brainstorming it but Lenny Dykstra needs to have a movie made about him. There's so much there:

Bill Beane and him bunking in the minors
86 coked up mets & various cast of characters
drunk driving crash
93 roided up Phils & various cast of characters
Mad Money connection
investment bullshit
theft and prostitutes
jail
This is what a real tenderoni likes to do for you

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Re: Dom Brown: Phillies Random Thoughts

Postby Trent Steele » Wed Jun 12, 2013 13:28:48

Pertinent to the GT discussion re Revere last night

http://espn.go.com/blog/sweetspot/post/ ... omezs-head

We have tools that allow us to dissect video-reviewed data of batted-ball locations. They aren't perfect, but they allow us to generate images such as this above, which looks at how Gomez fares against batted balls that stay in the park, have an estimated distance of about 365 feet or longer, and are hit to what we would call "dead center."

Gomez has been on the field for 35 balls that met our criteria. He's caught 34 of them (97 percent)

The average major-league team converts 78 percent of those balls into outs.


The Phillies rated last in 2012 as well and brought in a new center fielder in Ben Revere. But that hasn't worked. The Phillies' version of the spray chart above is dotted with 15 hits. That's a far reach from Gomez's near-perfection through 62 games.


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Re: Dom Brown: Phillies Random Thoughts

Postby Nick Leyva » Wed Jun 12, 2013 13:43:23

Youseff wrote:me and my friend were brainstorming it but Lenny Dykstra needs to have a movie made about him. There's so much there:

Bill Beane and him bunking in the minors
86 coked up mets & various cast of characters
drunk driving crash
93 roided up Phils & various cast of characters
Mad Money connection
investment #$!&@
theft and prostitutes
jail

Could be the only way he can turn a buck

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Re: Dom Brown: Phillies Random Thoughts

Postby Grotewold » Wed Jun 12, 2013 13:48:16

Trent Steele wrote:The Phillies rated last in 2012 as well and brought in a new center fielder in Ben Revere. But that hasn't worked. The Phillies' version of the spray chart above is dotted with 15 hits. That's a far reach from Gomez's near-perfection through 62 games.


We can debate whether a regular CF would have gotten to and caught that ball. But to me, getting a bad jump and then not even seeing or getting a glove anywhere near the ball are inexcusable.

The question is whether he'll improve. I remember Victorino getting a little better, fwiw

But in any event, I certainly don't see him having a lock on that position moving forward

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Re: Dom Brown: Phillies Random Thoughts

Postby ReadingPhilly » Wed Jun 12, 2013 14:27:15

the organization desperately needs at least two young, impact bats. i think it's reasonable to expect one from a papelbon deal, but you're not getting another one without trading lee. i'd love to keep lee, but imo it's more important to rebuild the offense. snag castellanos for papelbon and try for a bogaerts/owens return for lee. i'd definitely chip in a few million for each year of both their deals, but wouldn't go insane. that leaves you with hamels-fa-kendrick-pettibone/martin/morgan/biddle/fa filler at the backend which is passable.

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Re: Dom Brown: Phillies Random Thoughts

Postby Bucky » Wed Jun 12, 2013 14:34:05

lil' ben definitely has awful reads and awful routes, but that particular play deserves some slack IMO. It was his sheer speed that enabled him to get anywhere near that ball. Not many CFs would've even been close to that close.

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Re: Dom Brown: Phillies Random Thoughts

Postby Stay_Disappointed » Wed Jun 12, 2013 14:50:46

Nick Leyva wrote:
Grotewold wrote:
Monkeyboy wrote:I took a fair amount of grief for saying they wouldn't be good this year with Amaro's collection of #$!
&@ moves. But the thing is, I underestimated how bad they would be. I underestimated the suck. This is really depressing. :(


You've been reminding us of your prescience almost daily

The offense, especially, is #$!&@ awful to watch, but they're missing Utley and Ruiz and only three games under. Let's not go full 2010 Fugees

They're also tied for 9th in the league. It's pretty much over.


If they play as well in the 2nd half as they did last season they should make the playoffs. To me though the biggest concern is Howard. If he's hurt that bad fix him and bring up ruff

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Re: Dom Brown: Phillies Random Thoughts

Postby FTN » Wed Jun 12, 2013 14:54:12

choco wrote:
Grotewold wrote:
Trent Steele wrote:It probably doesn't happen, but the Phillies should make it happen if there is a team that was willing to do it. Does it matter how much you have to eat on Papelbon if you can get Castellanos or whoever? Same with Lee if he could get you a Will Myers. I'm not suggesting you can actually do those deals, but theoretically, I agree with the idea.


I'm as unconcerned about our payroll as anyone here, and of course would be open to eating money for great prospects. Just saying the notion of eating upwards of $40M for Papelbon is absurd. I can't imagine not being able to achieve similar results at much less cost


Is any single prospect even worth $40 million dollars on top of what you pay them in salary?


ask dodgers fans how they feel about puig

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Re: Dom Brown: Phillies Random Thoughts

Postby smitty » Wed Jun 12, 2013 15:01:00

mozartpc27 wrote:Reading about Charlie Manuel's playing days. Wondering if there is another player who so thoroughly and consistently DOMINATED the AAA/Japanese League level who was so abysmally ineffective at the major league level.

Manuel OPSes at AAA, Japan League stops (age in parentheses):

1970 - 1.047 (26)
1971 - 1.227 (27)
1973 - .839 (29)
1974 - 1.032 (30)
1975 - 1.015 (31)
1976 - .712 (32)
1977 - 1.093 (33)
1978 - .968 (34)
1979 - 1.146 (35)
1980 - 1.073 (36)
1981 - .790 (37)

He hit 276 at AAA/Japan League levels (87 at AAA level, 189 in Japan).

And yet, his ML career stat line: 242 G, .198/.273/.260/.533 with 4 career home runs in parts of 6 major league seasons.

Steve Jeltz has 5 major league home runs.


Look up Lawton OK high school's own Randy Bass. He won two triple crowns and might have Broken the single season home run record except he was intentionally walked in every plate appearance during his last game of the season.

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Re: Dom Brown: Phillies Random Thoughts

Postby Phred » Wed Jun 12, 2013 15:01:44

FTN wrote:
choco wrote:
Grotewold wrote:
Trent Steele wrote:It probably doesn't happen, but the Phillies should make it happen if there is a team that was willing to do it. Does it matter how much you have to eat on Papelbon if you can get Castellanos or whoever? Same with Lee if he could get you a Will Myers. I'm not suggesting you can actually do those deals, but theoretically, I agree with the idea.


I'm as unconcerned about our payroll as anyone here, and of course would be open to eating money for great prospects. Just saying the notion of eating upwards of $40M for Papelbon is absurd. I can't imagine not being able to achieve similar results at much less cost


Is any single prospect even worth $40 million dollars on top of what you pay them in salary?


ask dodgers fans how they feel about puig


Isn't that basically what happens with Asian and Cuban bidding wars/signings? How much did the Dodgers pay for the right to negotiate with Puig? What about the Cubs and Soler?
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Re: Dom Brown: Phillies Random Thoughts

Postby FTN » Wed Jun 12, 2013 15:04:56

the posting fee only applies to the asian market. the dodgers gave him a 7 year, 42M contract last year

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Re: Dom Brown: Phillies Random Thoughts

Postby pacino » Wed Jun 12, 2013 15:05:52

Alex Cabrera has 356 homers in Japan, while playing only 31 games in one season in the MLB
thephan wrote:pacino's posting is one of the more important things revealed in weeks.

Calvinball wrote:Pacino was right.

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Re: Dom Brown: Phillies Random Thoughts

Postby joe table » Wed Jun 12, 2013 15:11:46

re: riverdouche, What are some precedent deals for non injured, non shitty players where the trading team ate half or more of the deal, over multi years? we just throw that around like its a legit option but I honestly can't recall many or any such deals off top of my head.

even the money that jays and stros sent over in respective Roy deals wasn't all that significant

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Re: Dom Brown: Phillies Random Thoughts

Postby BigEd76 » Wed Jun 12, 2013 15:20:40

July 29 6-8 @ KoP Mall, Lidge and Chooch dual signing appearance. WFC

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Re: Dom Brown: Phillies Random Thoughts

Postby Wolfgang622 » Wed Jun 12, 2013 15:54:28

pacino wrote:Alex Cabrera has 356 homers in Japan, while playing only 31 games in one season in the MLB


Huh. You'd think somebody like that would get another shot at some point. There's no way, you'd think, he wouldn't be at least a useful role player in MLB.
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