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I Don't Care About Walks - Phillies Random Thoughts

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Re: I Don't Care About Walks - Phillies Random Thoughts

Postby smitty » Mon Apr 15, 2013 14:00:42

Napalm wrote:
CalvinBall wrote:i always get confused what is luck and what isnt. is inducing ground balls a skill?

yes, unless those numbers are far away from your career norm, in which case its luck


Agreed.

But Calvin brings up an interesting point. The smart guys are now doing studies which indicate there is indeed a bit less luck involved in pitcher luck. In other words, good pitchers are "luckier" than bad pitchers. This is something I think we all kinda know but we got a little confused by all the noise surrounding Defense Independent Pitching Stats.


Dips and three true outcomes and Voros McCracken's work were all really important. But not everything can be attributed to babip and luck and stuff like that.

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Re: I Don't Care About Walks - Phillies Random Thoughts

Postby Werthless » Mon Apr 15, 2013 14:26:34

smitty wrote:
Napalm wrote:
CalvinBall wrote:i always get confused what is luck and what isnt. is inducing ground balls a skill?

yes, unless those numbers are far away from your career norm, in which case its luck


Agreed.

But Calvin brings up an interesting point. The smart guys are now doing studies which indicate there is indeed a bit less luck involved in pitcher luck. In other words, good pitchers are "luckier" than bad pitchers. This is something I think we all kinda know but we got a little confused by all the noise surrounding Defense Independent Pitching Stats.


Dips and three true outcomes and Voros McCracken's work were all really important. But not everything can be attributed to babip and luck and stuff like that.

This comment is funny when you consider that the underlying statistic being talked about is John Lannan leading the NL in groundball ratio. John Lannan, the Rodney Dangerfield of major league baseball.

(Anyway, why are groundball/flyball presented, and not simple percentages of plate appearances resulting in groundballs, line drives, flyballs, strikouts, walks?)

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Re: I Don't Care About Walks - Phillies Random Thoughts

Postby td11 » Mon Apr 15, 2013 14:28:37

we talk about gb/fb all the time
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Re: I Don't Care About Walks - Phillies Random Thoughts

Postby Barry Jive » Mon Apr 15, 2013 14:30:52

would probably need to look at a lot of Pitch F/X data to figure out how much of it's luck and how much is because of an improvement with his pitches
no offense but you are everything that's wrong with America

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Re: I Don't Care About Walks - Phillies Random Thoughts

Postby Werthless » Mon Apr 15, 2013 14:32:15

td11 wrote:we talk about gb/fb all the time

But that's a worse statistic than groundball percentage for understanding the pitchers that are good are inducing groundballs.

(Also, FIP includes groundballs, so I don't understand smitty's note on that point, too. Lannan has a 2.61 FIP so far in 2 starts, good for 11th in the NL)

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Re: I Don't Care About Walks - Phillies Random Thoughts

Postby Barry Jive » Mon Apr 15, 2013 14:33:43

FIP doesn't really include ground balls specifically, does it? I thought xFIP and SIERA were the only ones who took batted ball data into account
no offense but you are everything that's wrong with America

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Re: I Don't Care About Walks - Phillies Random Thoughts

Postby td11 » Mon Apr 15, 2013 14:34:26

Werthless wrote:But that's a worse statistic than groundball percentage for understanding the pitchers that are good are inducing groundballs.



worse than what, gb/PA? not trying to be a dick, this is the first time i've seen someone complain about gb/fb not being a good indicator of a pitcher's groundball tendencies
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Re: I Don't Care About Walks - Phillies Random Thoughts

Postby JUburton » Mon Apr 15, 2013 14:35:25

FIP and xFIP only take the three true outcomes into account.

xFIP just normalizes HR/FB to like 11% or whatever league average is assuming that it's luck based...which isn't entirely true as high % FB pitchers (e.g. Cain) often have depressed HR/FB numbers.

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Re: I Don't Care About Walks - Phillies Random Thoughts

Postby Soren » Mon Apr 15, 2013 14:40:06

SIERA includes batted ball metrics n'est ce pas?
Olivia Meadows, your "emotional poltergeist"

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Re: I Don't Care About Walks - Phillies Random Thoughts

Postby JUburton » Mon Apr 15, 2013 14:42:21

Soren wrote:SIERA includes batted ball metrics n'est ce pas?
SIERA does include batted ball yes. I think gb/fb/iff.

SIERA = 6.145 - 16.986*(SO/PA) + 11.434*(BB/PA) - 1.858*((GB-FB-PU)/PA) + 7.653*((SO/PA)^2) +/- 6.664*(((GB-FB-PU)/PA)^2) + 10.130*(SO/PA)*((GB-FB-PU)/PA) - 5.195*(BB/PA)*((GB-FB-PU)/PA)

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Re: I Don't Care About Walks - Phillies Random Thoughts

Postby CalvinBall » Mon Apr 15, 2013 15:00:42

pretty sure FIP is just home runs, walks, and strikeouts.

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Re: I Don't Care About Walks - Phillies Random Thoughts

Postby smitty » Mon Apr 15, 2013 17:19:32

Werthless wrote:
td11 wrote:we talk about gb/fb all the time

But that's a worse statistic than groundball percentage for understanding the pitchers that are good are inducing groundballs.

(Also, FIP includes groundballs, so I don't understand smitty's note on that point, too. Lannan has a 2.61 FIP so far in 2 starts, good for 11th in the NL)


My only point is that guys are studying luck and BABIP and DIPS and finding out that pitchers have a bit more control over what happens with batted balls than we think (or thought maybe).

Anyway, it's pretty clear Lannan is a ground ball pitcher who is doing better in this regard so far this season. But we're only talking about what-- 13 innings?

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Re: I Don't Care About Walks - Phillies Random Thoughts

Postby Soren » Mon Apr 15, 2013 20:11:42

I changed my mind, Brown sucks

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Re: I Don't Care About Walks - Phillies Random Thoughts

Postby AllPhillyFan » Mon Apr 15, 2013 23:13:21

Soren wrote:I changed my mind, Brown sucks

I think he needs to take more walks
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Re: I Don't Care About Walks - Phillies Random Thoughts

Postby Wheels Tupay » Mon Apr 15, 2013 23:14:36

Kratz is really bad at baseball.


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Re: I Don't Care About Walks - Phillies Random Thoughts

Postby cartersDad26 » Tue Apr 16, 2013 10:29:46

Today is the 35 year anniversary of the last time the Phils were no-hit. April 16, 1978 by Bob Forsch of the Cardinals at Busch Stadium. I was born 6 days later.
Everybody hits woohoo!

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Re: I Don't Care About Walks - Phillies Random Thoughts

Postby Youseff » Tue Apr 16, 2013 14:35:22

The Phillies are worst in the majors with a .384 OPS vs. lefties. They are hitting .136 with a .186 on-base percentage and .198 slugging percentage. For reference, that is just slightly better than what all major-league pitchers did as hitters (.129/.162/.166) in 2012.


from some article or something
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Re: I Don't Care About Walks - Phillies Random Thoughts

Postby Doll Is Mine » Tue Apr 16, 2013 15:38:32

Probably during the 8th inning last night...

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Re: I Don't Care About Walks - Phillies Random Thoughts

Postby smitty » Tue Apr 16, 2013 15:41:37

Wheels Tupay wrote:Kratz is really bad at baseball.


Sorry Smitty


Probably too much Turkey Bacon. Can't wait for Chooch to get back and Kratz! Can go back to being a backup. Backup catchers aren't very good as a group. So if he hit a homer once in a while and throws a base stealer out from his knees then he's back to being a hero of sorts.

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Re: I Don't Care About Walks - Phillies Random Thoughts

Postby Grotewold » Tue Apr 16, 2013 15:56:19

Doll Is Mine wrote:Probably during the 8th inning last night...

Image


:h:

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