They weren't wrong though, it took Doc going all nuclear and dropping back to the minors and sorting out his armslot that made him what he is.

I'm pretty sure they were wrong. They were evaluating potential and the ability to put that potential to use. They failed in this case. Miserably. Fortunately, they have done a good job evaluating arms during this period. Not so much with toolsy OFers

Monkeyboy wrote:I'm pretty sure they were wrong. They were evaluating potential and the ability to put that potential to use. They failed in this case. Miserably. Fortunately, they have done a good job evaluating arms during this period. Not so much with toolsy OFers

They were concerned about his arm action, they were right in that regard. It took a complete overhaul of his pitching motion before he became the HOF-calibre stud he could be. Sure they got his potential wrong, but say we did take him and he goes nuclear on us and he doesn't change his armslot, we'd have ripped them a new one for going for him.

etched Chaos wrote:

Monkeyboy wrote:I'm pretty sure they were wrong. They were evaluating potential and the ability to put that potential to use. They failed in this case. Miserably. Fortunately, they have done a good job evaluating arms during this period. Not so much with toolsy OFers

They were concerned about his arm action, they were right in that regard. It took a complete overhaul of his pitching motion before he became the HOF-calibre stud he could be. Sure they got his potential wrong, but say we did take him and he goes nuclear on us and he doesn't change his armslot, we'd have ripped them a new one for going for him.

OK, they made the right choice, I guess.

etched Chaos wrote:

Monkeyboy wrote:I'm pretty sure they were wrong. They were evaluating potential and the ability to put that potential to use. They failed in this case. Miserably. Fortunately, they have done a good job evaluating arms during this period. Not so much with toolsy OFers

They were concerned about his arm action, they were right in that regard. It took a complete overhaul of his pitching motion before he became the HOF-calibre stud he could be. Sure they got his potential wrong, but say we did take him and he goes nuclear on us and he doesn't change his armslot, we'd have ripped them a new one for going for him.

unlike the masterstroke of drafting Reggie Taylor which no one has ever criticized them for.

Some draft picks don't work out? Who would have ever thought.

bleh wrote:

etched Chaos wrote:

Monkeyboy wrote:I'm pretty sure they were wrong. They were evaluating potential and the ability to put that potential to use. They failed in this case. Miserably. Fortunately, they have done a good job evaluating arms during this period. Not so much with toolsy OFers

They were concerned about his arm action, they were right in that regard. It took a complete overhaul of his pitching motion before he became the HOF-calibre stud he could be. Sure they got his potential wrong, but say we did take him and he goes nuclear on us and he doesn't change his armslot, we'd have ripped them a new one for going for him.

unlike the masterstroke of drafting Reggie Taylor which no one has ever criticized them for.

Fair point but i was merely trying to stop all the Doc was a slam dunk pick talk. He was no such thing, simply because of the way he went to shit and needed to get his whole pitching motion sorted in the minors.

The criticism here, absent context, is pretty ridiculous. You can't infer from one specific pick (especially one that only looks bad with a whole lot of hindsight) that the team is terrible at drafting.

Cubs just let go their first round draft pick from 2010. He never made it out of A ball.

I can't find many articles about pre draft Hamels, but he was not a sure thing.

Will Kimmey: Hamels has as high a ceiling as any pitcher in the 2002 draft or the Phillies system. A lot of teams knocked him down on (or off) their draft boards because of he broke the humerous bone in his arm in high school. Still, some teams had him as the highest rated pitcher available. Phils asst GM Mike Arbuckle said he's ahead of Gavin Floyd and Brett Myers at this point in his career in terms of pitchability and command. That says a lot.

So I guess the phillies suck at drafting except when they don't.

I actually don't mind drafting the toolshed guys. I just really dislike taking them in the first round. Particularly when you're a large-market/high payroll team like the Phillies, you need guys who are going to deliver value in excess of their compensation for their first few years. High floor is more important than high ceiling. Take the guys with huge variance later on. Brown as a 20th round pick was an amazing success even if he never becomes the 4-5 win player we dreamt on in 2010.

TenuredVulture wrote:The criticism here, absent context, is pretty ridiculous. You can't infer from one specific pick (especially one that only looks bad with a whole lot of hindsight) that the team is terrible at drafting.

Cubs just let go their first round draft pick from 2010. He never made it out of A ball.

My main criticism is they haven't drafted any all star caliber players in 10 years. And I think Kendrick is the last player they drafted who is even on the team and he was drafted in 2003. And I think the Cubs have been pretty bad at drafting too, but some teams have been good like the Cardinals, why can't us?

bleh wrote:

TenuredVulture wrote:The criticism here, absent context, is pretty ridiculous. You can't infer from one specific pick (especially one that only looks bad with a whole lot of hindsight) that the team is terrible at drafting.

Cubs just let go their first round draft pick from 2010. He never made it out of A ball.

My main criticism is they haven't drafted any all star caliber players in 10 years. And I think Kendrick is the last player they drafted who is even on the team and he was drafted in 2003. And I think the Cubs have been pretty bad at drafting too, but some teams have been good like the Cardinals, why can't us?

Brown, 2006
Galvis wasn't drafted but was signed as an amateur free agent and developed through the system
Stutes, DeFratus, Savery, Rosenberg, Diekman--pretty much the whole LHV bullpen which was with the team last year
Gone now, but Happ and Worley were drafted post-Kendrick

And all the guys they traded for their vets--Drabek, D'Arnaud, Taylor, Donald, Marson, Gose, Singleton etc.

Their drafts haven't been uniformly great and a couple have been downright lousy, and they've really struggled to come up with position playing regulars, but it's been far from a disaster. What happened in the draft between 1998 and 2002--Burrell, Madson, Myers, Utley, Howard, Hamels et al--is once-in-a-century rare.

dajafi wrote:

bleh wrote:

TenuredVulture wrote:The criticism here, absent context, is pretty ridiculous. You can't infer from one specific pick (especially one that only looks bad with a whole lot of hindsight) that the team is terrible at drafting.

Cubs just let go their first round draft pick from 2010. He never made it out of A ball.

My main criticism is they haven't drafted any all star caliber players in 10 years. And I think Kendrick is the last player they drafted who is even on the team and he was drafted in 2003. And I think the Cubs have been pretty bad at drafting too, but some teams have been good like the Cardinals, why can't us?

Brown, 2006
Galvis wasn't drafted but was signed as an amateur free agent and developed through the system
Stutes, DeFratus, Savery, Rosenberg, Diekman--pretty much the whole LHV bullpen which was with the team last year
Gone now, but Happ and Worley were drafted post-Kendrick

And all the guys they traded for their vets--Drabek, D'Arnaud, Taylor, Donald, Marson, Gose, Singleton etc.

Their drafts haven't been uniformly great and a couple have been downright lousy, and they've really struggled to come up with position playing regulars, but it's been far from a disaster. What happened in the draft between 1998 and 2002--Burrell, Madson, Myers, Utley, Howard, Hamels et al--is once-in-a-century rare.

Can't wait for 2104!

They actually got about what you'd expect from Burrell, as the first overall pick in '98. The crazy part was with Utley, Howard and Hamels. Maybe the piece I'm proudest of that I wrote for TGP had analysis of those three guys compared to the players drafted at the same point--15 overall, 141 overall and 17 overall, or something like that--for the five years before and after. In two of the cases, the Phillie had more WAR than the ten parallel guys combined, and in the third (Hamels, I think) it was only not true because one very good but not as good player had been taken at the same point the year before.

When you have that kind of a record over multiple years, obviously there's some luck involved and some of the credit has to go to player development. But point one is that they're probably not blithering idiots, and point two is that in the case of Utley, here was a mid-first round pick who was regarded as a pretty likely big leaguer, though not necessarily a future superstar. Sometimes those high floor guys turn out to have high ceilings too.

I think it would be hard to say the Phils drafted badly over the past 10-15 years. They've been pretty good to very good. I do think, however, there's been a bit of a drop off since arbunkle bolted to the Royals.

got the Rays smart draft guy for this year

41 runs is 2nd-most allowed through the first six games in franchise history

10 out of 11 inherited runners have scored

smug ass Dubee needs to fix his shit

When does Ryan Howard get off the DL? It will be good to have him in the lineup

Around the same time as Doc, IIRC.

tell me about ZEKE